Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 10!
Compare first touchdown stats to prop bet odds to help identify the best bets of the week >>
NFL Week 10 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Odds: +1000 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Patriots and the Colts will kick off in Germany on Sunday morning for those on the east coast. The Patriots allow 232.7 passing yards per game and are better at containing the run. They have given up 12 TDs through the air and only have five interceptions. Pittman averages 9.6 targets per game and is the most targeted player inside the red zone. He has caught 12 of 15 targets inside the 20 for 88 yards and one TD. He should have a good chance of finding the end zone in Frankfurt.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds: +800 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Head coach Matt LaFleur said he would unleash Jones last week, and he did. Jones played 57% of snaps and contributed 99 yards from scrimmage. He also found the end zone one time. Both offenses have trouble putting the ball in the end zone, but Jones has a decent chance. The Steelers allow 4.5 yards per rush attempt. Given Jones' usage last week, he should have a good chance of finding the end zone.
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings
Odds: +1200 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Saints have been struggling against tight ends in recent weeks. They have allowed four TDs to the position over the last four weeks. They played the Texans, Jaguars, Colts, and Bears. Hockenson is better than all the tight ends they faced during that stretch. He has seen a usage increase since Justin Jefferson went down, averaging 8.9 targets per game. Joshua Dobbs feeds his tight ends, which means Hockenson could see an increase in targets with him behind center.
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Odds: +375 via Caesars Sportsbook
The Texans looked amazing on offense last week but gave up 37 points on defense. The Bengals have been clicking on offense over the past few weeks and should have no trouble scoring against this defense. Mixon has only played less than 70% of snaps in one game (week one) and has not received fewer than 12 rush attempts. The Texans only allow 3.5 yards per rush attempt but have given up 10 rushing TDs this season. Mixon does not have to get them to the goal line, but he can finish once they get there.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Odds: +850 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The AFC North is stacked again, and the Ravens must keep their foot on the pedal. Both defenses are top three in points allowed, but the Browns have a weakness. The Browns have allowed the most rushing TDs to quarterbacks this season. Jackson scored twice in week four, and Gardner Minshew scored twice in week six. The Browns deploy a lot of man coverage, which benefits the quarterback if they can run. The Browns are the first-ranked team in terms of passing yards allowed, so it makes sense for Jackson to make plays with his legs when no one is open.
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: +850 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Hopkins is averaging eight targets per game and is heading into his third game with Will Levis under center. The Buccaneers have been awful at defending the pass this season, allowing 279.4 passing yards per game. They have allowed 10 TDs to wide receivers and gave up four TDs to the Texans wide receivers. Hopkins has 11 red zone targets, of which he caught three for a TD. He could have multiple chances for deep passes from Levis in this one, which got him into the end zone three times a couple of weeks ago.
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Odds: +1000 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The 49ers stumbled into their bye week on a three-game losing streak. It looks like Deebo Samuel is ready to play this week, which should help the entire offense. Aiyuk is leading this team in targets with 7.4, but McCaffrey has been scoring all the touchdowns. Aiyuk scored twice in week one but has not found the end zone again. The Jaguars have given up a touchdown to a wide receiver in every game this season, and Aiyuk is the prime option to score. He has the same odds as Samuel to score first but receives more targets and is not returning from injury.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers
Odds: +900 via FanDuel Sportsbook
This game has the highest total of the week, with two potent offenses taking the field. The Chargers allow the most passing yards weekly, with 286 passing yards per game. They have also allowed nine passing TDs to wide receivers, tied for fifth-most. He averages 11.1 targets per game, which leads the team by a wide margin. St. Brow also leads the wide receivers on the team with seven red zone targets. He has only found the end zone three times this season but has one of the best matchups a slot receiver can get.
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals
Odds: +800 via Caesars Sportsbook
It is not worth deciphering what Arthur Smith will do with his players. Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts remain underutilized, but Smith does not care. Tyler Allgeier and Jonnu Smith are producing decent stat lines, but it is hard to imagine Robinson and Pitts could not produce better with a full workload. Allgeier out-touched Robinson last week and has almost tripled his red zone carries. The Cardinals allow 128.7 rushing yards per game and have surrendered an average of one TD per game to running backs.
Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks
Odds: +1000 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Commanders have been awful against the pass this season and surrender 27.2 points per game. DK Metcalf and Lockett averaged 7.1 targets per game, but Lockett has scored one more touchdown this season. Lockett was limited in practice this week due to a hamstring injury but practiced fully before the week's end. The Commanders have allowed wide receivers to feast against them this season, and Lockett should bounce back after a couple of difficult matchups.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Odds: +320 via Caesars Sportsbook
Pollard has been underwhelming this season. He has only found the end zone twice, and they both came in week one. He has a smash matchup this week, though. The Giants allow 127.1 rushing yards per game and have surrendered the fourth-most TDs to running backs on the ground this season. It is also the same defense that he scored twice against in week one. Pollard should have another good day despite his lack of production this season.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 10)
- NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz's Favorites (2023)
- Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 11 Bets (2023)
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks, & Predictions
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