Week 10 was great for those who follow these articles, cashing plays with Trey McBride (+150), Rome Odunze (+155), Deebo Samuel (+200), Parker Washington (+240), Jerry Jeudy (+310) and my absolute favorite bet of the week, Kyren Williams at even odds to score and the escalator of two or more touchdowns at +700.
My write-ups don't necessarily always have a theme, but this week's certainly does, as I'm targeting several players in their second divisional matchup that have already scored against their opponent this season. I've got a nice mix of a couple shorter odds plays, with a majority sitting in the +200 to +300 range, including some longshots and multi-touchdown escalator plays in excess of 10/1 odds. I saw the board well last week, let's see if that carries over into another big week with my top NFL Week 11 anytime touchdown scorer picks.
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Best NFL Week 11 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
I'm starting this week's article with a really juicy pick, going with Panthers quarterback Bryce Young to score at +850. While Young isn't necessarily a high-volume runner, he's certainly more mobile than most, and in line with this week's theme, he's had a lot of success running against this Falcons defense in his most recent performances.
Young recorded his only rushing score of the season in his first matchup against Atlanta, and he recorded two rushing touchdowns against the Falcons in last year's season finale. While the Falcons’ defense looks pretty stout on paper, their numbers have been boosted by some early-season performances, and they just haven't looked the same since losing linebacker Divine Deablo a few weeks ago.
They've also proven to be vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks. At these odds, I'll throw a dart at Young to score another rushing touchdown against a defense he's had recent success running against.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT) | +230
The Bengals and Steelers played a banger of a Thursday Night Football game four weeks ago, in which Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth had by far his best game of the season. Freiermuth racked up 111 yards on five receptions and scored two touchdowns, including a late 68-yard score that nearly gave the Steelers the victory. That's nothing new for this Bengals defense, which ranks dead-last in the NFL in terms of points allowed and has been especially vulnerable to opposing tight ends.
The Bengals are conceding the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including a league-leading 12 touchdowns, with the next closest team sitting at just seven. While Freiermuth has fewer red-zone targets than fellow tight end Darnell Washington, that earlier game against the Bengals saw all three Steelers tight ends (Jonnu Smith, the other) get into the end zone. I'm not necessarily worried about the tight end pecking order in Pittsburgh.
At over 2/1 odds, I think there's great value on Freiermuth to find paydirt again this week in an A+ positional matchup against the unquestionably worst defense in the NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) | +210
It's almost becoming a set-it-and-forget-it weekly occurrence of mine to take the Chargers receiver with the longest odds to score, and this week that happens to be Keenan Allen. The Chargers’ passing attack should have little resistance against a Jaguars defense that just watched a 19-point lead evaporate in the fourth quarter in a game where they surrendered 36points to a Davis Mills-led Texans offense that has been offensively challenged at times this season.
The Jaguars are currently allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game, and are tied for the sixth-most touchdowns allowed to opposing wideouts. Allen remains the top dog on the Chargers in terms of red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line, receiving just fewer than 25% of all red-zone targets to Chargers receivers, and 27% of all such targets inside the 10-yard line. Keenan's had a few quiet weeks in a row since exploding against the Colts in a game where I also took him as my best bet to score. This is a great spot to buy low on him to have a bounce-back week and find his way back into the end zone.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Keon Coleman (WR – BUF) | +270
I was shocked to see Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman's odds to score so long the week following a game where he reeled in a touchdown in a really head-scratching loss by the Bills to a pretty hapless Dolphins squad, especially considering tight end Dalton Kincaid is out. I'm expecting a fair amount of points to be scored in this game, with the total sitting in the high 40s, especially against a Buccaneers defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in terms of passing yards allowed per game. The Bucs have been pretty middling against opposing receivers, with eight touchdowns allowed to position on the season.
While Coleman ranks just below fellow wideout Khalil Shakir in terms of red-zone targets, his target share doubles inside the 10-yard line, where he leads all Buffalo receivers with 30% of all targets inside the 10. Josh Allen loves throwing to his big bodies around the goal line, and I love the value on Coleman to find the end zone for a second straight week.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN) | +340
The Bears and Vikings face off in a pivotal NFC North showdown on Sunday, and I'm going with Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy as my best bet for this game. As is the case with most young signal-callers, McCarthy has not been afraid to use his legs when things aren't open downfield, as he has recorded five or more rushes in three of his four starts, including two touchdowns. He's also coming off a career-high in terms of rushing yards, where he racked up 48 yards on five carries.
That doesn't bode well for a bottom-five Bears scoring defense, which has been extremely susceptible to the quarterback run game this season, conceding the second-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, including tied for the fifth-most rushing touchdowns allowed to the position. McCarthy recorded a rushing score against this same Bears defense in the season opener, in a game where he recorded 25 rushing yards on just two carries.
Instead of trying to choose between Vikings running backs or receivers, I'll take McCarthy to find paydirt for the second time this year against a Bears defense that has proven to have no answer for scrambling quarterbacks this year.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
I did a double-take when I saw these odds. The Tennessee defense Woody Marks will be up against has been absolutely victimized by opposing backs, conceding the second-most fantasy points per game, including a league-leading 12 touchdowns. Marks had his coming out party against this same Titans defense, recording career highs in carries (17), yards (69) and receiving yards (50), recording a touchdown each on the ground and through the air.
I get that Nick Chubb is set to return to the Texans’ backfield this week, but Marks has surpassed him on the depth chart after filling in very nicely in his stead. As favorites of nearly a touchdown, I expect this script to play out similarly to nearly every Titans game this season, setting up a run-heavy Texans game script that should provide a big workload for Marks. This play gives me the same vibes that Kyren Williams did last week, where I recommended playing him for multiple touchdowns, and I'm giving that same recommendation with Marks to score two or more touchdowns this week at +1200. I absolutely love this play in an A+ spot for the dynamic rookie to have another big day against a putrid Titans run defense.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB) | 2+ TDs: +230
While the two or more touchdowns recommendation on Woody Marks is just a sprinkle, this multi-score Josh Jacobs touchdown prop bet is absolutely a play for me this week. Much like the Titans, the Giants have had no answer for opposing running backs this season, ranking in the bottom three in yards, touchdowns and fantasy points allowed per game to running backs.
Jacobs is the perfect back to take advantage of those deficiencies, as he ranks tied for second in the NFL in red-zone rushes (35) behind Jonathan Taylor, but he's actually tied with Taylor in terms of red-zone rushing touchdowns (11). He gets even better inside the 10-yard line, again ranking second in attempts (11), but leading the entire NFL with seven touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. He has also received an incredible 100% of all Green Bay rushes inside the 10-yard line, a stat that is matched by only Ashton Jeanty.
The Packers’ passing game has also really sputtered as of late, with zero passing touchdowns in their previous two games. Add in the injury to red-zone weapon Tucker Kraft, and it only makes Jacobs more likely to get the ball around the goal line. Similar to Marks, I'm also going to sprinkle on Jacobs to score three or more touchdowns at +1000. A monster day is in store for the Packers’ bell-cow back against one of the NFL's worst rush defenses.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) | +135
I've had some fun longshots and escalator plays throughout this week's article, but it's time to take some shorter odds with a no-brainer play on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score. He has been flat-out phenomenal this season, leading the NFL in receiving yards with only one game this year that he did not record at least 93 yards. He's been on fire in the touchdown department as of late as well, with four scores in Seattle's previous five games.
Smith-Njigba will probably never be the biggest red zone threat, but he has been ruthlessly efficient in the scoring area, as all three of his red-zone receptions have gone for touchdowns. It also doesn't necessarily matter that he's not a red-zone target monster, as he has a reception of 40+ yards in a ridiculous six out of nine of Seattle's games this season. With one of the highest totals on the board for the Sunday slate, I expect plenty of points to be scored and for the stars to shine for both teams in a really pivotal NFC West clash. I'll take the Seahawks’ brightest star to make it five touchdowns in six games against the Rams on Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Michael Wilson (WR – ARI) | +185
A lot of the touchdown scoring options in this game were oddly depressed, but I'll go with de facto No. 1 WR Michael Wilson for Arizona this week due to the absence of Marvin Harrison Jr. I'll cut to the chase here, none of Wilson's season-long metrics pop off the page, and he only has one receiving touchdown on the season, but this play is more about attacking a vulnerable 49ers secondary.
The 49ers rank just outside of the bottom 10 in terms of passing yards per game and have been susceptible to opposing wideouts, ranking in the bottom half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, including tied for the ninth-most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. With the odds of Trey McBride essentially unplayable, I'll take Wilson as the pass-catcher to absorb most of the targets that go to Harrison every week, and reel in his second touchdown of the season in a good matchup against an injured and vulnerable 49ers defense.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. (TE – CLE) | +470
While the Browns’ season has certainly been one to forget, they have some exciting young pieces to look forward to in the upcoming years, including one of my favorite tight ends in the league in Harold Fannin Jr. Fannin has had a really productive rookie campaign especially considering how poor the Browns’ offense has been and the fact that he shares the position with another really good tight end in David Njoku. Fannin is averaging 4.6 receptions on 6.4 targets for 44 yards per game at nearly 10 yards per reception.
Fannin has only two touchdowns on the season, but I like him to make it three this weekend against a sneakily bad Ravens defense, which ranks in the bottom eight in both scoring defense and passing yards allowed per game, in a contest where the Browns figure to be in a trailing game script.
Fannin also had a nice game against these Ravens earlier this season, recording his third-highest yardage total of the year (48) on five receptions. At nearly 5/1 odds, I'm going to play this every time. Let's just hope I picked the right tight end to score, as Njoku is fresh off a game where he was able to get in the end zone.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Troy Franklin (WR – DEN) | +200
I don't know that he's going to surpass Courtland Sutton as the nominal No. 1 WR in Denver by the end of the season, but second-year receiver Troy Franklin is certainly on track to do that sooner rather than later. The young wideout has become a favorite of Bo Nix, especially in the scoring area where the targets matter the most. It might surprise you to learn that Franklin is tied for the fifth-most red-zone targets (14) and is tied for seventh in targets inside the 10-yard line, garnering 37% of all targets to Broncos pass-catchers in each of those categories.
Franklin is going through an especially hot streak right now as well, with four receiving touchdowns in Denver's previous four games. The Chiefs’ defense is certainly among the best in the league, but at 2/1 odds on one of the most high-volume red-zone weapons in the league, I'll take Franklin to make it five touchdowns in five games in a huge AFC West matchup on Sunday afternoon.
