3 NFL Week 11 Bets to Fade (2024)

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 11. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 11 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting George Pickens Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

This number is way too low. Pickens has averaged 71 receiving yards per game this season despite spending most of it catching passes from Justin Fields.
The star receiver had more than 57 yards in only two of six games with Fields. By comparison, Pickens has totaled at least 74 yards in every game with Russell Wilson.
He has been outstanding with Wilson, averaging seven targets and 92 yards per game, posting a 24.4% target share and 34.5% first-read target share (per Fantasy Points Data).
Baltimore has surrendered the most yards to wide receivers this year (199.2 per game). They've allowed No. 1 wide receivers to average 161.7 yards per game over the past three weeks.

Instead, Bet Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)

The Steelers' passing attack has been significantly better since making the quarterback change. Justin Fields had one or fewer passing touchdowns in five of his six starts.
Wilson has been significantly better, averaging two touchdowns per game. He has had at least two scores in two of three games, including a season-high three last week.
Baltimore's pass defense has been awful this year. They've surrendered the most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, allowing 2.1 per game.
Over the past six weeks, Bo Nix is the only quarterback not to have at least two touchdowns against the Ravens. The other five have averaged 3.4 touchdowns per contest against Baltimore.

Avoid Betting Cedric Tillman Under 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

There is no reason for this number to be this low. Tillman has been outstanding since the Browns traded away Amari Cooper a month ago.
Tillman has averaged 85 receiving yards per game since the Cooper trade, totaling 75 or more in every contest despite catching passes from three different quarterbacks.
New Orleans has struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks. They've given up the third-most yards to wide receivers, surrendering 169.3 per game.
The Saints have allowed two wide receivers to total 72 or more yards in two of their past three games. Last week, Drake London and Darnell Mooney had over 95 yards against the division rivals.

Instead, Bet Jameis Winston Over 0.5 Interceptions (-135)

Winston can throw five touchdown passes in a game as easily as five interceptions. The veteran famously had 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions during the 2019 season.
He has thrown at least one interception in 58.2% of his career starts, totaling two or more in 36.6%. By comparison, Winston didn't throw an interception in only 41.4% of his career starts.
The veteran is coming off a three-interception performance in the Browns' last game. It was only the seventh-highest interception performance of his career.
New Orleans has the fourth-most interceptions in the NFL this year (12) despite trading away Marshon Lattimore. They have had at least one in 80% of their games, totaling at least two in more contests (three) than none (two).

Avoid Betting Nico Collins Under 72.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Despite missing the past 5.5 games with a hamstring injury, Collins ranks 18th in the NFL with 567 receiving yards heading into Week 11.
He leads the league with a 113.4 yards per game average this season, totaling 86 or more in his four healthy contests, including 117 or more in three of the first four matchups.
The superstar wide receiver is arguably the NFL's top deep threat. Collins had 78 yards on two targets in the Week 5 matchup before leaving early with the hamstring injury.
Dallas has severely struggled to stop outside No. 1 wide receivers lately. The Cowboys have given up 86 yards per game to them over their past four contests, including 88 or more in back-to-back weeks.

Instead, Bet Joe Mixon to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-195)

While he is coming off his worst rushing performance in a healthy game this season, Mixon still found the end zone against an elite Detroit Lions run defense in Week 10.
He has eight touchdowns in seven games this year, ranking seventh in the NFL in scores despite missing three games with an ankle injury.
Mixon is the focal point of Houston's offense. He has found the end zone at least once in every healthy game, totaling two touchdowns in two of seven contests.
The Cowboys have surrendered the third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs entering Week 11 (10), including two or more scores in a third of their matchups.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.