Someone must score the first touchdown of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It features the best selections for the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the NFL Week 11 first touchdown scorers picks & predictions.
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NFL Week 11 First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
The Bears score the fifth-most points in the first quarter this season, but only score 5.8 per game on the road. The Vikings scored 5.3 points in the first quarter this season, but average six at home. J.J. McCarthy is questionable this week with a hand injury, and their chances of scoring first drop dramatically if he does not play.
Justin Jefferson is averaging 9.3 targets per game this season and has 11 targets in the red zone. He has a great chance at a touchdown this week against the Bears, who allow the second-most touchdowns (1.44) per game to the wide receiver position. Jefferson only has two touchdowns this season, but both came from McCarthy.
Pick: Justin Jefferson (+800 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
The Packers struggle in the first quarter, averaging only 3.4 points. The Giants play well in the first quarter, averaging 5.4 points and 6.8 at home. Devin Singletary has five rushing attempts in the red zone this season, while Tyrone Tracy Jr. only has three.
The Giants fired head coach Brian Daboll, so there could be some personnel usage changes this week. Tracy is far more efficient and is coming off a game where he averaged 5.1 yards per attempt. The Packers have a stiff run defense, but they allowed two touchdowns and 130 yards to Rico Dowdle two weeks ago. I expect the Giants to lean on Tracy this week, giving him a good chance to score first.
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (+1000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
The Bills looked bad last week, but return to Buffalo to face the Buccaneers. The Bills are much better at home, averaging seven points per first quarter. The Buccaneers only average two points per first quarter on the road.
Both teams are in a bounce-back spot after tough losses last week, and they have a lot to play for regarding divisional standings. I expect the Bills to lean on James Cook, who is averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season. He also has 28 attempts in the red zone this season. Cook is the favorite to score first for a reason and is a great option this week.
Pick: James Cook (+450 via bet365)
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a target monster, averaging 9.4 per game. He only has four targets in the red zone, but has caught three of them for scores. Both teams score on their first possession 40% of the time, but the Seahawks possess the ball first 40% of the time, while the Rams possess it 20% of the time.
There are a lot of options in this game, but Smith-Njigba is playing the best of all of them and has the most consolidated workload. He should have an opportunity to score first this week, and he is too good to pass up at this price.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+950 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Both teams struggle to score in the first quarter, but the Chiefs' defense performs slightly better. They allow 3.4 points per first quarter this season, while the Broncos allow 4.4 points. Travis Kelce only has three touchdowns this season, but he is tied for the most targets in the red zone with nine.
The Broncos' defense is stellar, but the one area they have a slight weakness in is against tight ends. They allow the most yards (13.1) per reception this season to tight ends, while Kelce averages 13.2 yards per reception. He is a solid option to score first in this game, especially if he can get open for an explosive play.
Pick: Travis Kelce (+1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
