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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 11 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

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In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.

Week 10 Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-9 (-1.86 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2

Year-to-Date Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 69-58-2 (+5.35 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 25-20

All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman’s Week 11 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 11 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the Mexico game, the Cardinals are technically the home team.)

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Nov. 16, at 5 pm ET. 

Home Team Road Team Consensus Line Freedman Line Projected Edge
GB TEN -3 -3.75 -0.75
BAL CAR -13 -13.5 -0.5
ATL CHI -3.5 -0.75 2.75
BUF CLE -8 -10.25 -2.25
NE NYJ -3 -4 -1
HOU WAS 3.5 2.25 -1.25
IND PHI 6.5 6 -0.5
NYG DET -3 -1.25 1.75
NO LAR -4 -3.5 0.5
DEN LV -2.5 -1.25 1.25
MIN DAL 1.5 1 -0.5
PIT CIN 4 5.5 1.5
LAC KC 6 7.5 1.5
ARI SF 8 6.75 -1.25

Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on four teams at their consensus lines.

  • Bears +3.5 at Falcons
  • Patriots -3 vs. Jets
  • Lions +3 at Giants
  • Bengals -4 at Steelers

Freedman’s Week 10 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Check out our Bears at Falcons matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  • TV: FOX

Bears at Falcons: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 16.

  • Spread: Falcons -3.5
  • Betting Percentages: Bears – 43% bets, 76% money

Bears at Falcons: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

  • Bears ATS: 4-6 (-23.9% ROI)
  • Falcons ATS: 6-4 (14.7% ROI)

Bears at Falcons: Notable Trend

  • HC Arthur Smith: 3-9 ATS (43.0% ROI for faders) at home

Bears at Falcons: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Bears Offense vs. Falcons Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.024 13 0.083 28 15
Total SR 42.6% 20 49.4% 32 12
Total DVOA -4.9% 20 12.5% 30 10
Dropback EPA 0.015 18 0.123 27 9
Dropback SR 43.2% 27 51.6% 30 3
Pass DVOA -5.3% 26 20.5% 29 3
Adj. Sack Rate 13.8% 32 4.4% 31 -1
Rush EPA 0.034 4 0.020 26 22
Rush SR 42.0% 16 46.1% 28 12
Rush DVOA 2.6% 9 1.7% 25 16
Adj. Line Yards 4.56 14 4.87 28 14
Yards per Play 5.5 13 6 31 18
Points per Game 21.7 20 25 27 7

Falcons Offense vs. Bears Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.024 13 0.098 29 16
Total SR 46.3% 10 47.5% 28 18
Total DVOA 5.8% 11 12.0% 29 18
Dropback EPA 0.053 16 0.205 30 14
Dropback SR 48.5% 9 51.1% 28 19
Pass DVOA 12.9% 14 21.4% 30 16
Adj. Sack Rate 10.2% 30 5.8% 24 -6
Rush EPA -0.004 8 -0.028 22 14
Rush SR 44.3% 8 43.4% 22 14
Rush DVOA 5.5% 8 2.1% 26 18
Adj. Line Yards 4.79 3 4.52 19 16
Yards per Play 5.4 16 5.8 23 7
Points per Game 23.2 12 24.7 25 13

Bears at Falcons: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 160 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Justin Fields

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.063 20
AY/A 6.8 18
QBR 57.1 11
ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.8 14

Career: Justin Fields

  • AY/A: 6.2
  • QB Elo per Game: -47.8

2022: Marcus Mariota

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.086 13
AY/A 7.2 10
QBR 59.2 9
ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.9 27

Career: Marcus Mariota

  • AY/A: 7.2
  • QB Elo per Game: -14.3

Key Matchup: Bears QB Justin Fields vs. Falcons Linebackers & Cornerbacks

The Falcons are yet to face a true dual-threat quarterback this year, but that’s what they get this week in Fields, who is developing into a Lamar Jackson-esque force.

Fantasy football isn’t the same as sports betting, but as a frame of reference: Over the past month, Fields is No. 1 at the position in expected fantasy points (83.4), actual fantasy points (133.5) and fantasy point overperformance (50.1).

Check out my Week 11 fantasy points leaderboard.

Ranking No. 1 among all quarterbacks with 104-749-6 rushing (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report), Fields has a massive edge against LBs Rashaan Evans and Mykal Walker, off-ball thumpers who lack the speed to catch Fields if he breaks out of the pocket.

The Bears have a top-10 rush offense — thanks primarily to Fields — and the Falcons are bottom-10 in run defense.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Rush EPA 0.034 4 0.02 26 22
Rush DVOA 0.026 9 0.017 25 16

And Fields is no longer a net negative in the passing game. He struggled last year (5.8 AY/A), and in Weeks 1-3 he did little and looked awful doing it (15 attempts per game, 3.5 AY/A), but since Week 4 he has been a serviceable passer (23.1 attempts, 7.8 AY/A).

The Falcons have been without No. 1 CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) ever since he exited Week 7 early, and even if he returns to action this week he likely will play with physical limitations. As for No. 2 CB Casey Hayward (shoulder, IR), he doesn’t seem close to returning.

The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (20.5%) and No. 30 in dropback SR (51.6%). Even with Terrell, they would be vulnerable.

I expect Fields to be able to do just enough against the corners and whatever he wants against the linebackers, and that should be enough to get the Bears the cover.

Best Line: Bears +3.5 (-110, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Bears +4 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears +0.75

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Check out our Jets at Patriots matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: Gillette Stadium
  • TV: CBS

Jets at Patriots: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 16.

  • Spread: Patriots -3.5
  • Betting Percentages: Patriots – 56% bets, 73% money

Jets at Patriots: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

  • Jets ATS: 6-3 (27.5% ROI)
  • Patriots ATS: 5-3-1 (17.1% ROI)

Jets at Patriots: Notable Trend

  • Patriots HC Bill Belichick: 3-0 ATS (117.3% ROI) vs. Jets QB Zach Wilson

Jets at Patriots: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.04 23 -0.116 1 -22
Total SR 41.1% 27 41.2% 5 -22
Total DVOA -1.0% 19 -15.9% 3 -16
Dropback EPA -0.064 27 -0.153 1 -26
Dropback SR 42.3% 28 39.6% 1 -27
Pass DVOA 6.3% 18 -25.6% 2 -16
Adj. Sack Rate 6.6% 12 9.5% 3 -9
Rush EPA 0.001 7 -0.057 17 10
Rush SR 38.9% 25 43.8% 24 -1
Rush DVOA 1.0% 12 -2.5% 21 9
Adj. Line Yards 4.34 19 4.61 22 3
Yards per Play 5.3 19 5.2 8 -11
Points per Game 21.8 19 18.4 6 -13

Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.047 25 -0.045 7 -18
Total SR 42.5% 21 43.6% 14 -7
Total DVOA -13.5% 26 -11.2% 6 -20
Dropback EPA -0.042 25 -0.034 7 -18
Dropback SR 44.7% 22 43.5% 5 -17
Pass DVOA -7.0% 28 -12.3% 6 -22
Adj. Sack Rate 8.9% 26 8.0% 12 -14
Rush EPA -0.054 18 -0.061 15 -3
Rush SR 39.5% 22 43.9% 25 3
Rush DVOA -8.0% 22 -9.8% 10 -12
Adj. Line Yards 4.45 17 4.08 6 -11
Yards per Play 5.3 19 4.8 4 -15
Points per Game 22.6 14 19.6 10 -4

Jets at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 160 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Zach Wilson

Metric Output Rank
AY/A 6.3 23
QBR 49.1 18
ATS Value vs. Avg. -2.2 39

Career: Zach Wilson

  • AY/A: 5.6
  • QB Elo per Game: -107.7

2022: Mac Jones

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.034 26
AY/A 5.4 36
QBR 32.7 28
ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.5 32

Career: Mac Jones

  • AY/A: 6.6
  • QB Elo per Game: -31.7

Key Matchup: Patriots Pass Defense vs. Jets QB Zach Wilson

Come on. In Week 8, the Patriots were -3 on the road against the Jets, and they won 22-17. Even though they lost by only five points, the Jets trailed by 12 entering the final two minutes, and at no point in the fourth quarter were they a significant threat.

And now the Patriots are at home — and they’re still favored by just -3.

Against Wilson.

Yes, he had 355 yards and two touchdowns passing against the Patriots in Week 8 — but he also had three interceptions and completed only 48.8% of his pass attempts.

In three career starts against the Patriots, Wilson has a 53.6% completion rate and 4.1 AY/A on 616-2-7 passing with seven sacks for 53 yards. Disgusting.

Without RB Breece Hall (knee, IR), the Jets have minimal explosiveness in the running game, and they’re bottom-six in passing offense while the Patriots defense is No. 1 against the pass.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Dropback EPA -0.064 27 -0.153 1 -26
Dropback SR 0.423 28 0.396 1 -27

I expect Wilson to have another mediocre-at-best showing against the Patriots.

Best Line: Patriots -3 (-115, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Patriots -3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Patriots -4

Detroit Lions at New York Giants

Check out our Lions at Giants matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: MetLife Stadium
  • TV: FOX

Lions at Giants: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 16.

  • Spread: Giants -3
  • Betting Percentages: Lions – 42% bets, 68% money

Lions at Giants: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

  • Lions ATS: 5-4 (6.9% ROI)
  • Giants ATS: 7-2 (50.0% ROI)

Lions at Giants: Notable Trend

  • HC Dan Campbell: 16-9 ATS (22.4% ROI) as underdog

Lions at Giants: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Lions Offense vs. Giants Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.004 16 0.034 20 4
Total SR 44.7% 17 44.1% 16 -1
Total DVOA 5.2% 13 7.9% 24 11
Dropback EPA 0.062 13 0.069 17 4
Dropback SR 46.7% 15 45.7% 14 -1
Pass DVOA 17.0% 11 13.7% 23 12
Adj. Sack Rate 4.2% 3 6.0% 22 19
Rush EPA -0.081 23 -0.025 24 1
Rush SR 41.7% 17 41.3% 14 -3
Rush DVOA -0.1% 14 -0.9% 23 9
Adj. Line Yards 4.78 4 4.79 26 22
Yards per Play 5.9 5 5.8 23 18
Points per Game 24.3 9 19.2 9 0

Giants Offense vs. Lions Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.065 8 0.141 32 24
Total SR 43.7% 18 49.0% 30 12
Total DVOA 2.5% 15 9.7% 26 11
Dropback EPA 0.129 6 0.205 30 24
Dropback SR 46.7% 15 51.3% 29 14
Pass DVOA 15.8% 13 14.1% 24 11
Adj. Sack Rate 10.3% 31 5.3% 27 -4
Rush EPA -0.016 11 0.046 29 18
Rush SR 40.0% 21 45.6% 27 6
Rush DVOA 0.5% 13 4.0% 27 14
Adj. Line Yards 4.25 23 4.74 24 1
Yards per Play 5.1 24 6.5 32 8
Points per Game 20.8 22 29.3 32 10

Lions at Giants: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 160 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Jared Goff

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.071 16
AY/A 7.5 9
QBR 54.5 14
ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.7 15

Career: Jared Goff

  • AY/A: 7.3
  • QB Elo per Game: 4.9

2022: Daniel Jones

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.1 10
AY/A 7 12
QBR 60.3 8
ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.0 19

Career: Daniel Jones

  • AY/A: 6.4
  • QB Elo per Game: -26.0

Key Matchup: Lions Offensive Line vs. Giants Defensive Line

In our internal FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Lions offensive line has a massive edge over the defensive line for the Giants, who are without EDGE Azeez Ojulari (calf, IR).

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings

In my personal rankings, the Lions have the No. 1 offensive line in the league, and they’re top-four in adjusted sack rate and adjusted line yards while the Giants defensive line is outside the top 20 in those metrics.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Adj. Sack Rate 0.042 3 0.06 22 19
Adj. Line Yards 4.78 4 4.79 26 22

If the Lions are able to control the line of scrimmage on offense, I like their chances to keep this game close.

Best Line: Lions +3 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Lions +4 (-110)
Personal Projection: Lions +1.25

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Check out our Bengals at Steelers matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium
  • TV: CBS

Bengals at Steelers: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 16.

  • Spread: Bengals -4
  • Betting Percentages: Steelers – 55% bets, 94% money

Bengals at Steelers: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

  • Bengals ATS: 6-3 (27.3% ROI)
  • Steelers ATS: 4-4-1 (-3.4% ROI)

Bengals at Steelers: Notable Trend

  • Bengals QB Joe Burrow: 13-7 ATS (24.7% ROI) on road (includes postseason)

Bengals at Steelers: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Bengals Offense vs. Steelers Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.101 5 0.046 23 18
Total SR 48.6% 4 43.5% 12 8
Total DVOA 7.7% 8 -1.3% 14 6
Dropback EPA 0.167 5 0.101 24 19
Dropback SR 50.4% 6 46.2% 17 11
Pass DVOA 16.7% 12 7.6% 18 6
Adj. Sack Rate 9.1% 28 5.9% 23 -5
Rush EPA -0.032 12 -0.049 19 7
Rush SR 45.0% 5 38.9% 7 2
Rush DVOA 6.6% 5 -14.2% 7 2
Adj. Line Yards 4.61 11 4.25 10 -1
Yards per Play 5.5 13 5.8 23 10
Points per Game 25.3 6 23 20 14

Steelers Offense vs. Bengals Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.056 26 -0.025 10 -16
Total SR 42.4% 22 42.9% 10 -12
Total DVOA -7.3% 22 -7.1% 10 -12
Dropback EPA -0.08 29 -0.037 6 -23
Dropback SR 43.3% 25 43.2% 4 -21
Pass DVOA 1.1% 22 -6.4% 9 -13
Adj. Sack Rate 7.2% 16 5.0% 29 13
Rush EPA -0.009 9 -0.009 25 16
Rush SR 40.8% 19 42.5% 18 -1
Rush DVOA -12.5% 24 -7.8% 12 -12
Adj. Line Yards 4.21 24 4.52 18 -6
Yards per Play 4.7 31 5.3 12 -19
Points per Game 15.6 31 20.6 13 -18

Bengals at Steelers: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 160 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Joe Burrow

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.14 5
AY/A 7.9 6
QBR 55.6 12
ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.7 5

Career: Joe Burrow

  • AY/A: 8.0
  • QB Elo per Game: 35.2

2022: Kenny Pickett

Metric Output Rank
AY/A 4.3 37
QBR 39.1 26
ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.7 35

Career: Kenny Pickett

  • AY/A: 4.3
  • QB Elo per Game: -41.2

Key Matchup: Bengals Pass Offense vs. Steelers Pass Defense

The Bengals are without No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip), but they still have a strong quartet of pass catchers with WRs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, TE Hayden Hurst and RB Joe Mixon.

For the season, the Bengals have been a solidly above-average team in the passing game, where the Steelers defense has been been average at best.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Total DVOA 0.077 8 -0.013 14 6
Dropback EPA 0.167 5 0.101 24 19
Dropback SR 0.504 6 0.462 17 11

On top of that, the Steelers last week were without CBs Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and William Jackson (back, IR) and S Minkah Fitzpatrick (appendix), and since then Jackson has been placed on reserve and Witherspoon and Fitzpatrick have failed to practice.

In Week 1, the Bengals lost to the Steelers by just three points — in overtime — despite QB Joe Burrow committing five turnovers (4 interceptions, 1 fumble). But last year the Bengals had dominant 24-10 and 41-10 wins over the Steelers — and I don’t expect Burrow to turn the ball over five times this week.

I expect Burrow to have success against the Steelers.

Best Line: Bengals -4 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Bengals -4.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bengals -5.5

Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

  • Bears +3.5 at Falcons
  • Patriots -3.5 vs. Jets
  • Lions +3.5 at Giants
  • Texans +3.5 vs. Commanders
  • Bengals -3.5 at Steelers

Also in consideration are:

  • Titans +3.5 at Packers
  • Rams +4.5 at Saints
  • Raiders +2.5 at Broncos

Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.

UPDATE (SUN. 11/20): Here’s the update.

Previous Best Bets Pieces

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