Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below, I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone with a TD this week (excludes the Sunday night game).
Below are my results from the 2022 and 2023 seasons to date (assuming one unit per prop).
(Data per Fantasy Points Data | Odds as of Friday afternoon)
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| Season | Week | Units | ROI | Record |
| All Time | -9.2 | -5.4% | 108 – 187 | |
| 2022 | All | +8.8 | +5.2% | 68 – 102 |
| 2023 | 1 | -2.2 | -16.5% | 4 – 9 |
| 2023 | 2 | -1.9 | -15.4% | 4 – 8 |
| 2023 | 3 | -3.1 | -25.8% | 3 – 9 |
| 2023 | 4 | -11.0 | -100% | 0 – 11 |
| 2023 | 5 | +4.4 | +39.7% | 6 – 5 |
| 2023 | 6 | -4.8 | -39.8% | 4 – 8 |
| 2023 | 7 | -1.5 | -15.0% | 3 – 7 |
| 2023 | 8 | +1.3 | +10.0% | 5 – 8 |
| 2023 | 9 | +0.4 | +4.4% | 4 – 6 |
| 2023 | 10 | +2.7 | +27.0% | 3 – 7 |
| 2023 | 11 | -2.4 | -22.3% | 4 – 7 |
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Best NFL Week 12 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
- Kyren Williams
- Anytime TD Odds: +110 ESPN BET
Williams returns from IR this week and should reclaim the backfield. Darrell Henderson, who had split the backfield with fellow RB Royce Freeman, was waived on Tuesday. This is likely a sign that Williams should be able to handle a full workload. While he might not get the bell cow usage he was receiving the first six weeks of the season, we can expect him to handle most of the RB touches in this matchup. Williams has seven TD’s in six games this year and gets an enticing matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona (15) trails only the Panthers (16) in total TD’s allowed to RB’s this season. They also come off a game where they allowed Devin Singletary to run for 112 yards and a TD.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
- Chris Olave
- Anytime TD Odds: +210 FanDuel
Olave has 30 more targets on the season compared to the next closest Saints receiver. That receiver is Michael Thomas, who the Saints just placed on IR. Prior to the Week 11 bye, Olave had seen no fewer than 8 targets in the last five games and scored a TD in the two games going into the bye. We should expect this usage to continue in an important NFC South matchup in Atlanta. The Falcons have been good against WR’s this year in terms of yardage, but they have allowed five TD’s over their last three games to WR’s.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
- Joe Mixon
- Anytime TD Odds: +115 FanDuel
Touchdowns will be hard to come by in this matchup now that Bengals QB Joe Burrow is lost for the season. The Steelers also just fired their OC Matt Canada, so the offense may get a jumpstart with a new play caller. The total sits at the second lowest on the week (35.0). With that said, I’ll stick on the home side and lean toward RB Joe Mixon to be the focal point of the Bengals offense moving forward. Mixon had 21 touches last week and found the end zone against the Ravens. The Steelers defense has been tough this season, but they have allowed the sixth most rushing yards to RB’s this year.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
- Javonte Williams
- Anytime TD Odds: +145 DraftKings
This is another sub-40 point total (36.5) with two teams coming off wins led by their respective defenses last week. While the Browns defense has been one of the best in the league, they did allow Steelers’ RB’s to total 181 yards and a TD last week. Williams has been the clear lead back the last three weeks, averaging 22.7 touches per game and handling all 18 of the RB carries in the red zone. He has been able to score two receiving TD’s over that span, but he should have a chance to score his first rushing TD of the year if this workload continues in the red zone.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
- Evan Engram
- Anytime TD Odds: +270 PointsBet
This game is one of the more exciting matchups on Sunday. The spread has hovered around one point and the total is one of the highest of the week (48.5). The Texans have won three in a row, scoring 30 ppg in those matchups. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are coming off a bounce back 34 -14 win at home, after a blowout to the 49ers. Evan Engram is still looking for his first TD of the year, despite seeing the second most targets (71) on the team this season. The Texans have been susceptible to opposing TE’s. They are tied for the most catches allowed to TE’s in the league and have given up three TD’s over their last four games to TE’s.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
- Michael Pittman
- Anytime TD Odds: +160 FanDuel
Tampa Bay has been getting crushed by opposing WR’s this season, allowing a league high 198.9 yards/game. They have been trending even worse recently, allowing 230.3 yards/game over their last four games and are tied for a league worst 6 TD’s allowed during that stretch. The Colts are sitting at .500 and are coming off their bye. Pittman leads the Colts’ receiving group in pretty much all statistical categories this season. In the three games prior to the bye, he had no less than 8 catches in any of the games. He should be able to take advantage of a poor Bucs pass defense this week.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
- Isiah Pacheco
- Anytime TD Odds: -114 ESPN BET
Pacheco continues to lead the Chiefs backfield, handling 20 touches last week. The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites on the road and have the second highest team total (25.25) on the week. This should lead to another big volume game for Pacheco in Vegas. The Raiders have been competitive recently after Antonio Pierce took over for Josh McDaniels, winning 2 of 3. On the season though, the Raiders have allowed the third-most yards to opposing RB’s.
New England Patriots at New York Giants
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Anytime TD Odds: +155 PointsBet
Rhamondre had time to get healthy over the bye week. He sustained a back injury in Germany against the Colts, but is not listed on the injury report for the Week 12 matchup against the Giants. Stevenson saw usage comparable to last season in that game, carrying the ball 20 times and seeing five targets. If that usage continues, he should have a great chance to score against the Giants. The Giants have allowed the third-most rushing yards (113.9/game) and fourth-most rushing TD’s (11) to RB’s this season.
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles
- Stefon Diggs
- Anytime TD Odds: +140 Caesars
Diggs’ career season has come back down to earth over the last two games. He has not topped four catches or 34 yards in either of the last two weeks against the Broncos and Jets. Prior to that, he was leading the NFL in receptions and had seven TD’s through the first nine games. I expect him to get back to that effectiveness in a good matchup in Philadelphia. The Eagles have allowed the most receptions (16.8/game) and are tied with the Commanders for the most receiving TD’s (15) allowed to WR’s this season.
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
- Derrick Henry
- Anytime TD Odds: +105 DraftKings
Henry’s TD production has been down this season compared to the last five seasons. He only has four TD’s through 10 games. In the prior five seasons, he had no less than 10 TD’s, which includes an injury shortened 2021 year. Henry has some work to do over the last seven games if he wants to get to double digit scores once more. He’ll have a good chance to get that started against the Panthers run defense. Carolina ranks dead last in rushing TD’s allowed to RB’s this year (13), two clear of the next closest teams.
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