3 NFL Week 12 Bets to Fade (2024)

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 12. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 12 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting Brian Robinson Jr. Under 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Robinson has averaged 65.5 rushing yards per game this season, totaling 63 yards last week against an elite Philadelphia Eagles run defense in his first contest back from a hamstring injury.
He has missed time with multiple injuries this year. Yet, Robinson has had 63 or more yards in 62.5% of his games, including at least 71 in nearly half the contests.
Dallas' run defense has severely regressed from last season, giving up the 10th-most yards to running backs in 2024, allowing 111.1 per game.
The Cowboys have surrendered 104 or more yards to running backs in 70% of their games, including five consecutive matchups.

Instead, Bet Austin Ekeler Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Despite splitting the backfield work, Ekeler has averaged 34.4 receiving yards per game this year. The veteran has had 22 or more yards in 70% of his games.
He has been better with Brian Robinson Jr. in the lineup, averaging 38 yards per game in the seven contests with the former Alabama star, including a season-high 89 last week.
The Cowboys have surrendered the sixth-most yards to running backs entering Week 12, allowing 40.8 per game. They've given up 55 or more yards in two of their past three matchups.
More aggressive bettors should be on the alternative line of 40 or more yards (+330). Ekeler has had 41 or more yards in half his games this year, including two of the past three.

Avoid Betting De’Von Achane Under 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Achane has averaged 53 rushing yards per game this season. However, he has averaged 69.4 yards per game since the bye Week 6 bye, totaling 73 or more in three of the past five weeks.
The second-year pro had a poor Week 1 performance. However, Achane has been productive in Tua Tagovailoa's other five starts, averaging 73.2 yards per game, totaling 96 or more twice.
New England held running backs to 76.1 yards per game last year. By comparison, the Patriots surrendered the third-most yards this season, allowing 116.6 per game.
They have given up 132.2 yards per game to running backs since Week 2, surrendering 107 or more in all but one of those nine contests.

Instead, Bet Rhamondre Stevenson Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Stevenson has had some poor performances, totaling 23 or fewer rushing yards in three games. However, he has averaged 75.4 yards per game in the other seven contests.
The star running back has had 70 or more yards in half the games this season, including 73 or more in back-to-back weeks.
When Stevenson faced the Dolphins in Week 5, he had 89 yards on 12 attempts. The star running back averaged a season-high 7.4 yards per attempt in that game.
Miami has given up 92.9 yards per game to running backs, surrendering 63 or more in all but one contest. They have allowed 102 or more yards to running backs in half of their matchups.

Avoid Betting Derrick Henry Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,185). The superstar has averaged 107.7 yards per game, the second-most in the league behind Saquon Barkley (113.7).
He averaged 124.7 yards per game over the first seven weeks, totaling 150 or more in nearly half of those contests. However, Henry has struggled lately against tough run defenses.
The superstar has averaged 78 yards per game over the past four weeks, totaling 73 or fewer in all but one contest, including 68 or less in back-to-back matchups.
Los Angeles has held running backs to 81.9 yards per game this year. They've surrendered 79.2 yards per game to running backs since their bye, allowing 86 or fewer in four of six contests.

Instead, Bet Quentin Johnston to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+195)

After totaling two receiving touchdowns on 38 receptions as a rookie, Johnston has six on 22 catches this year. He has at least one score in 62.5% of the games, including three straight.
Johnston is fourth in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns, ranking only behind Ja'Marr Chase (12), Amon-Ra St. Brown (nine), and George Kittle (seven).
The Ravens have surrendered 16 touchdowns to wide receivers, the most in the NFL, allowing at least one in 72.7% of their contests, including two or more in 45.5% of the matchups.
Baltimore has struggled with outside wide receivers, surrendering the most touchdowns (10). Johnston has run 91.5% of his route from out wide, scoring all six touchdowns when lined up outside.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.