While last week featured plenty of close games, there weren't any major upsets, as the favored teams found a way to win late in most contests. That said, the biggest development was the Kansas City Chiefs falling 22-19 to the Denver Broncos as 3.5-point favorites. The Chiefs are now 5-5 and on the outside looking in when it comes to the postseason. Can they get right against the Indianapolis Colts? I cover that game and three other expected close contests below. Below are my top NFL Week 12 pick’em pool predictions.
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NFL Week 12 Pick’em Pool Predictions (2025)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears are 7-3, but the main talking point about this team is that they still haven't beaten a team with a winning record. That could all change on Sunday when they welcome the Steelers to Chicago.
Aaron Rodgers was injured last week, and though he won't need surgery, he's still questionable for this week. He says he wants to play, but I’d feel much better about the Steelers in this game if he were 100% healthy. If Rodgers can't go, Mason Rudolph is a competent backup, and I'd expect a solid game from him against the 10th-worst pass defense.
While the Bears don't defend the pass well, the Steelers are even worse, as they rank 32nd in pass defense, allowing 261.7 yards per game. However, the defense is also tied for the second-most caused turnovers in the league, forcing 18 this year. But will it make a difference against the Bears, who lead the league in turnovers (22) and turnover differential (+16)? I don't think so.
Pick: Chicago Bears
Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
After three consecutive wins, the Chiefs were 5-3 and looked as though they'd figured things out. However, they've dropped back-to-back games. Last week, they were just 1-for-4 in the red zone.
What this game will ultimately come down to is whether or not the Chiefs can slow down Jonathan Taylor. The Chiefs rank ninth in rush defense, allowing just 100 yards per game. However, this is mostly because teams aren't running against them much. When offenses do run, the Chiefs are allowing 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks 17th in the NFL.
Taylor leads the NFL with 1,139 rush yards and 17 total touchdowns. He's averaging six yards per carry, and he has five 100-yard games. But the nightmare for the Chiefs is that the Colts' passing attack also ranks third in the league, and is averaging 251.9 yards per game. The Chiefs have the No. 7 total defense, but even with this game being played in Kansas City, the Colts have just been the better team this year. Maybe the desperate Chiefs find a way, but I'll take the better offense on Sunday.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Jaguars just demolished the Chargers, winning 35-6, but this is a bad matchup for them. Though the Cardinals lost by 19 last week, Jacoby Brissett completed an NFL record 47 passes for 452 yards in the loss. He finished with an 82.5% completion percentage.
The Jaguars' pass defense has struggled this season, allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game. While opponents are only completing 62.1% of their passes against the Jaguars, the average length of each completion is nearly 11 yards.
The Jaguars rank 20th in total offense and 21st in passing offense, worse than the Cardinals in both categories. And while the Jaguars' rushing attack is averaging 127.5 yards per game, eighth-best in the league, the Cardinals are decent against the run, ranking 18th in rushing yards allowed per game and 16th in yards allowed per carry. The Cardinals' strengths simply match up better with the Jaguars' weaknesses, and this game is being played in Arizona.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Unless you're a fan of the Falcons or the Saints, likely, you likely don't care much about this game. Neither team is going to the postseason, but this is the type of matchup that could end up winning the week for you in a pick’em pool.
Michael Penix Jr. is expected to miss the rest of the season with a knee injury, which means Kirk Cousins will take over as the starting quarterback for the Falcons. Cousins has appeared in three games this season, completing 61.5% of his passes for 250 yards. He hasn't thrown a touchdown or an interception yet. Additionally, in his only start, the Falcons lost 34-10.
The last time we saw the Saints, they pulled off a surprising 17-7 win over the Panthers. Quarterback Tyler Shough was 19-of-27 for 282 yards and two touchdowns in that game. While I expect him to struggle a bit against the league's sixth-ranked pass defense, I anticipate plenty of running room for Alvin Kamara against the league's fifth-worst rush defense. And while the Saints may struggle with Bijan Robinson, the Falcons are going to be very one-dimensional, as Cousins will likely be without leading receiver Drake London.
Pick: New Orleans Saints
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.