Each week, I'll provide my favorite Sunday parlay and my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. We’ve got a shorter slate for this week, with three games on Thanksgiving Thursday. So without further ado, here are this week's parlay picks.
Note: I’m writing this article earlier than usual in light of the holidays, which means many of Sunday’s games won’t have official props listed.
Week 12 NFL parlay
- Jaguars +4
- Bengals -120 moneyline
- Odds: +249
Full disclosure: This might be my least favorite Sunday slate of the season from a betting perspective. And I never want to wedge picks in just for the heck of it.
The Jaguars have had a week to prepare for Baltimore’s unique yet recently ineffective offense. And while the Ravens still rank 5th in offensive DVOA, Lamar Jackson and this passing game are clearly off. I don’t think Jackson has the weapons to exploit a Jaguars secondary that ranks 31st against the pass. Jacksonville has been average against the run, which could be good enough. If you want to juice this parlay up, I don’t mind taking Jacksonville at +170 on the moneyline.
Cincinnati is one of my favorite plays on the slate. In case I haven’t mentioned it before, I’m skeptical of the 7-3 Tennessee Titans, who have beaten the Raiders, Colts twice, Commanders with Carson Wentz, Texans, Broncos, and Chargers. The Titans are first in run defense DVOA, which is fine, considering Joe Mixon might not be healthy for Cincinnati. But they aren’t elite when it comes to rushing the passer. I expect Joe Burrow to light up a Tennessee secondary that’s only been exposed by Josh Allen so far this year.
Backing Zac Taylor against Mike Vrabel is scary, but I suspect the Bengals will find a way to move the ball and limit Derrick Henry.
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-4.5) | Total 40.5
- Jets -4.5
- David Montgomery over rushing attempts
This game is rather up in the air. We know that New York will start Mike White instead of Zach Wilson at quarterback. What we don’t know is whether Justin Fields will play. Fields is dealing with a dislocated left shoulder, and his status for Sunday is pretty unclear.
Bears head coach Matt Eberflus says QB Justin Fields "remains day-to-day" but he has been cleared to practice today. They're having a walkthrough, and it'll be estimated that he's limited.
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) November 23, 2022
Betting on the Jets here is speculation that Fields won’t play, which means Trevor Siemian would line up under center. The Jets might be rejuvenated with Wilson heading to the bench, and I expect their defense to respond with a dominant effort. Montgomery got 17 carries with Khalil Herbert injured, and I’d expect a similar workload for him this week.
Denver Broncos (-2) at Carolina Panthers | Total 36.5
- Under 36.5
- Sam Darnold under passing yards
This game stinks on so many levels. The Broncos are a dumpster fire that managed just 16 points against a dismal Raiders defense. Meanwhile, Carolina is turning to Sam Darnold on Sunday after P.J. Walker and Baker Mayfield both failed miserably. Denver ranks fifth in defensive DVOA, while Carolina ranks 21st. However, it might not matter who this Broncos offense is playing.
If Carolina is to win, it’ll have to be on the ground, where Denver ranks 18th in DVOA. I wouldn’t expect Darnold to do much of anything against an elite Broncos secondary.
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars | Total 43.5
- Jaguars +4
- Trevor Lawrence under passing yards
Another gross game (a theme this week). I outlined above why I like Jacksonville to cover. But I don’t think Trevor Lawrence will get much going against a Ravens defense that ranks 8th against the pass and 8th in sacks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns | Total 43
- Buccaneers -3.5
- Rachaad White over rushing yards
I keep falling for this Buccaneers team and am doing it again. The Browns’ defense is in apparent disarray, as defensive end, Myles Garrett had some interesting comments following their loss to Buffalo. Defensive coordinator Joe Woods might have lost this team. And I think Brady and the healthier Bucs can take advantage.
Cleveland’s rush defense is porous, ranking dead-last in DVOA. We just saw the Bills, a team that sometimes forgets it can run the ball, go off on the ground against Cleveland. I’d suspect Brady and the Bucs to follow that blueprint, with the rookie White being the lead back.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans | Total 42.5
- Bengals -120
- Joe Burrow over passing yards
As I mentioned above, I’m banking on a big day for Burrow and the Bengals’ passing game. Ja’Marr Chase could be back, which would greatly help. But Cincinnati should be able to move the ball through the air against a Tennessee defense that doesn’t generate much pressure.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4.5) | Total 41
- Cordarrelle Patterson under rushing yards
- Terry McLaurin over receiving yards
This is truly a game I don’t have much feel for. The only way the Falcons can score is by running the ball, and Washington ranks 2nd in the NFL in rush defense DVOA. That’s bad news for Cordarrelle Patterson and this offense, as I don’t trust Marcus Mariota to light up a vulnerable secondary. On the flip side, Atlanta’s defense ranks 28th in DVOA and struggles mightily against the pass. That sets up McLaurin to have a good day. Don’t force anything with this game.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (+13.5) | Total 47
- Miami team total over
- Jeff Wilson over rushing yards
Confession: I have lost too many times on the Houston Texans and am fading them out of spite. But seriously, the Dolphins should dominate off of a bye week. Houston could be going to Kyle Allen under center, which makes me a little more nervous, as anyone’s better than Davis Mills. But this Dolphins offense should roll, and Wilson could have a massive game against a putrid Texans run defense.
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) | Total 47.5
- Over 47.5
- D.K. Metcalf over receiving yards
- Davante Adams over receiving yards
Finally, a game with some appeal offensively. This game could turn into a shootout. Seattle ranks 17th in defensive DVOA, which is nothing special. Meanwhile, Las Vegas ranks dead last in both overall defensive DVOA and pass defense DVOA. I have no problem betting both Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to hit their receiving totals. And when the Raiders need to respond, you know Derek Carr will go to Adams.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals | Total 47.5
Forgive me, but I will hold off on betting on this game until we get clarification on Kyler Murray. If he’s cleared, I’d actually lean toward Arizona and the over.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) | Total 43
- Christian McCaffrey under rushing attempts
- Andy Dalton anytime interception
This is another brutal game from a betting perspective. The 49ers are clearly the better team, but they’re coming off a short week and are historically poor home favorites under Kyle Shanahan. That being said, I have no interest in taking the points with Andy Dalton, who is as safe a bet as any QB to throw a pick.
Instead, I’ll fade CMC from a rushing perspective. Through two games, it’s looked like McCaffrey is actually being utilized more as a receiver than tailback. It’s been Elijah Mitchell who has served as the team’s primary between-the-tackles runner.
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5) | Total 43
- Rams team total under
- Cam Akers over rushing attempts
- Travis Kelce anytime TD
The Rams’ season appears to be over. With Matthew Stafford and John Wolford both injured, the defending champs will be rolling with Bryce Perkins Sunday, who will make his first career start at Arrowhead Stadium. With no Cooper Kupp, the Rams’ offense should struggle mightily to move the ball. And I’d expect Cam Akers to get a longer look, especially after Darrell Henderson was released earlier this week.
We recently saw the Chiefs struggle against Malik Willis and the Tennessee Titans, so I’m a bit reluctant to lay more than two scores with a Chiefs team that might not be fully attentive with a revenge game against the Bengals on deck. That being said, Travis Kelce is the only weapon that matters in this Chiefs offense, and he should crack the end zone.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) | Total 46.5
- Packers +7
- Aaron Jones over rushing yards
This will make you squeamish, but the Packers are on the proper side of a long week. Philadelphia also hasn’t dominated in recent weeks. The Eagles needed a last-second TD to beat Indianapolis last week. Before that, they lost at home in primetime to Washington and failed to cover against the lowly Texans. The key will be attacking an Eagles run defense that’s been exposed recently. Whether Matt LaFleur will stick to the ground game is another story, but he’d be a fool not to feed Aaron Jones, who should find success.
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