Now that the holiday shopping season has begun, bettors everywhere are probably thinking it would be nice to hit on an underdog or two in the weeks ahead. Four won against the spread (ATS) last week and two outright. Who will it be this week? With three games on Thanksgiving and one on Black Friday, the field will be kind of small.
But we’ve identified a few NFL underdog bets that could win Sunday.
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Best NFL Week 13 Underdog Picks
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Steelers (+134) vs. Bengals (-2.5)
How on Earth are the 4-7 Bengals the favorite against the 8-3 Steelers? Yes, playing at home can give a team a three-point swing. But that would mean these teams are viewed as fairly even. That isn’t true, or am I missing something?
OK, so Pittsburgh is coming off a loss to a Browns team they should have beaten. But they had won five straight heading into that game. As for the Bengals, they’ve lost three of their last four.
There is bound to be a reason the spread on this is so small and favoring the Bengals; I don’t know what it is. I do know, however, that the Bengals’ run defense is nothing special and that Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris should have no trouble finding running lanes. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will keep it interesting, but they can’t beat the Steelers on their own.
Pittsburgh didn’t bring its ‘A’ game last week and lost. The Steelers will not make the same mistake this week.
Pick: Steelers Moneyline (+134)
Titans (+210) vs. Commanders (-6.5)
With the Titans at 3-8, the 7-5 Commanders should be the betting favorite for this game, and they are. Tennessee has struggled with quarterback issues all season, while Washington has one of the top contenders for Offensive Rookie of the Year under center.
But I’d still lean towards the Titans in this one.
Jayden Daniels is having a solid season overall, but the Commanders have not been getting the same exceptional level of play they saw early in the season. The losses to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia could be excused since neither game was a blowout. But the loss to a dreadful Cowboys team?
Yeah, that never should have happened.
Tennessee will take a level of confidence into this game that they have not had all season. Not only did they beat the Texans last week with a solid defensive performance, but the offense did its part as well. Tony Pollard rushed for over 100 yards. Will Levis completed 75% of his passes for 278 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Things have not worked that well on both sides of the ball for Tennessee all season.
The Titans’ defense has been one of the hardest to move the ball against. There is no reason to think Washington will break that trend. The Commanders’ defense has been tough against the pass in recent weeks but has struggled against the run. Daniels just hasn’t been making plays.
Look for Pollard to have a big day and for the Titans to win.
Pick: Titans Moneyline (+210)
Eagles (+138) vs. Ravens (-3)
If we assume the Ravens are three-point favorites in this game because playing at home often gives teams a three-point bump in the spread, well… that’s fair. But the Ravens will lose this game. Why? Defense and Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens’ defense has been dismal on its good days against the pass, and the Eagles have one of the more explosive passing attacks in the league. When combined with Saquon Barkley carving up the front seven in the ground game, they are tough to beat.
OK, so Baltimore has the second-best run defense in the league. But is that because they are that good or because their pass defense is that bad?
Now, I know how Ravens fans will respond… “It doesn’t matter since Lamar Jackson and the offense will simply outscore the Eagles.” I don’t know about that. Yes, the Ravens have the No. 1 offense in total yards and the No. 2 run offense. But the Eagles have one of the most formidable defenses in the league. It’s hard to run or pass on them. When they shut down Derrick Henry, the game will be over. Why?
When Henry is held to fewer than 100 yards rushing, the Ravens lose. The only exception to that rule is two games vs. the Bengals, where the Ravens needed to throw to keep up with how well Joe Burrow was carving up their defense.
Incidentally, the No. 1 run game belongs to the Eagles.
Baltimore is good, but not good enough to slow down the Eagles’ offensive juggernaut.
Pick: Eagles Moneyline (+138)
