With slimmer pickings than normal this coming Sunday, I’m going to bend the rules a bit and throw in one of our two Monday games into my Week 13 parlay.
Without further ado, here’s my Week 13 parlay card.
*Odds courtesy of BettingPros Consensus
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Leg 1: Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. New Orleans Saints
Betting on the Falcons, especially in a parlay, always makes me queasy. But I took some Mylanta and reminded myself that Dan Quinn is no longer Atlanta’s head coach to settle my stomach.
Raheem Morris has done a nice job since taking over as Atlanta’s interim head coach. The Falcons are 4-2 since parting ways with Quinn. However, one of those losses came in an ugly fashion to the Saints.
Atlanta came out flat off the bye and was dominated 24-9. However, context is important here. Remember, leading up to that week, everyone expected Jameis Winston to be under center for New Orleans, not Taysom Hill.
Well, Sean Payton threw us for a loop, and I think Atlanta was caught off guard. Hill performed well against Atlanta but looked terrible throwing the ball last week against Denver.
I expect Morris to have this improving Falcons defense more prepared for the Taysom Hill experience. I also expect Julio Jones to be healthy, giving Atlanta’s offense a jolt.
I’ll take the Falcons, and the points in what I also think will be a low-scoring contest.
Leg 2: New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks Under 47.5
I took the over in last Monday’s Seattle game and got burnt. But I had a revelation. The Seahawks might be letting Russell Wilson cook a little less.
Last week against Philadelphia, the Seahawks threw 31 times and ran the ball off 30 times. The return of Chris Carson from injury likely played a role in Seattle taking on a more conservative approach. And given Seattle’s defensive woes, the Seahawks may be content with lighting up the scoreboard less and milking the clock more.
Plus, Seattle comes off a short week against a Giants defense that’s actually been an above-average unit, especially against the run.
The other key to this handicap is that Colt McCoy will likely be under center for New York. McCoy will likely do a better job of protecting the ball than Daniel Jones, but he also is less likely to generate explosive plays against Seattle’s struggling secondary.
The Giants will certainly want to keep the ball on the ground, while the Seahawks could continue to leverage a more conservative gameplan and stay healthy in its first of three non-divisional games.
Leg 3: San Francisco 49ers -1 vs. Buffalo Bills
The 49ers impressed me a ton in their upset victory over the Rams. The Niners are getting healthier. Richard Sherman and Deebo Samuel are a couple of the notable players San Francisco got back last week.
Nick Mullens kind of stinks, but the 49ers shouldn’t need him to win. Kyle Shanahan’s outside-zone running game should get whatever it wants against a Buffalo defense that’s surrendered 4.7 yards per attempt and 16 touchdowns on the ground.
San Francisco’s strength defensively remains against the pass. Even without Sherman for most of the season, the 49ers rank fourth against the pass. San Francisco’s secondary is also great at limiting explosive plays, which is bad news for Josh Allen.
The 49ers are desperately trying to stay in the NFC playoff race and present a bad matchup for Allen’s Bills. I expect San Francisco to pound the rock and keep Allen’s explosive arm in check.
Parlay Odds: +550
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.
Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.