It's Thanksgiving week, which means there are games on four days. I don't cover any of the three Thanksgiving games below, but I do make a pick for the Black Friday contest between the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles. Then, I turn my attention to Sunday, where I expect at least two upsets and the Buffalo Bills to get back on track.
Here is my best NFL pick-em advice for Week 13.
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NFL Week 13 Pick’em Pool Predictions (2025)
Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This isn't one of the closest spreads of the week, but it's a game worth mentioning. These teams enter with the same record, and the Bears have won four consecutive games. They finally picked up a win over a team with a winning record last week, knocking off the Mason Rudolph-led Pittsburgh Steelers, 31-28.
While the Eagles suffered a surprising loss to the Dallas Cowboys, I don't give the Bears much of a chance in this game. The Eagles are allowing just 20.5 points per game (8th-best), while the Bears are allowing 26.5, despite playing teams with a combined win percentage of just .365.
The Bears are averaging 26.3 points per game, but I worry about Caleb Williams entering this matchup. He's completed fewer than 60% of his passes in four consecutive weeks, despite playing three bottom-10 pass defenses, including the worst two in the entire league. If you're looking for an upset this week, look elsewhere.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Texans have been without C.J. Stroud for their last three games, yet they've managed to go 3-0 and picked up a massive win over the Buffalo Bills last Thursday. The defense continues to prove itself week after week, allowing just 16.5 points per game, which is best in the NFL. They're also allowing just 264.3 yards per game, which is 8.7 yards fewer than the second-best defense in the league.
Stroud is still in concussion protocol. If he plays, I love the Texans in this game. However, if he doesn't, I still think they're going to beat a Colts team that has lost two of its last three. Jonathan Taylor has rushed for fewer than 60 yards in each of the Colts' most recent losses, and I don't expect much improvement from him this week against a defense allowing just 92.2 rushing yards per game.
That means the game will fall on the shoulders of Daniel Jones. He has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions in his last three games, and he now has to face a defense that has forced 19 turnovers, fourth-best in the league. The Texans' offense is problematic, but the defense is good enough to keep them in this game and steal a win late.
Pick: Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After their three-point loss to the Jaguars on Sunday, the Cardinals have now suffered six losses by four or fewer points this season. While many would expect them to lose at Tampa Bay on Sunday, the Buccaneers are 1-4 in their last five games, and Baker Mayfield's status for this weekend is in question.
Even if Mayfield plays, I worry about the Buccaneers' ability to block for him. Mayfield has been sacked 22 times this season (13th-most), and if it weren't for his elusiveness, he'd have been sacked a lot more to this point. The Cardinals only have 22 sacks of their own this season, but they did take down Trevor Lawrence three times last week.
The truth is, the Buccaneers haven't looked like themselves since losing to the Lions. Not only have they lost four of five, but three of those losses were by double digits, and they weren't remotely competitive against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Look for the Cardinals' 10th-ranked passing attack to dominate the Buccaneers' sixth-worst pass defense.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bills looked out of sync on Thursday against the Texans, as they managed just 326 yards, 19 points, and three turnovers. However, the Texans have been a headache for everyone this season, and now, the Bills get to face one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Steelers have forced 20 turnovers, but the defense hasn't done anything else very well. The unit ranks 28th in total yards allowed, 31st in passing yards allowed, and 20th in points allowed. While the rush defense ranks 15th, I don't expect the Steelers to find a way to shut down both James Cook and Josh Allen in this game.
It looks like Aaron Rodgers is going to start for the Steelers this week, but I still don't expect them to find much success, even against the Bills' struggling defense. The Steelers rank 27th in yards per game, 22nd in passing yards per game, and 27th in rushing yards per game. In a contest where the Steelers will need to score plenty to win, I don't know where they're going to find the offense.
Pick: Buffalo Bills
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.