After striking out on longshot-heavy cards in the past couple of weeks, I'm getting back to my roots with the NFL Week 14 anytime touchdown scorer picks, with all of my picks coming in the +100 to +400 range. This week's card is very pass catcher-centric, featuring no running backs, as well as a D/ST longshot in the ugliest game of the week.
Week 14 includes some huge games in the NFL as we draw near the postseason, including Steelers @ Ravens in the AFC North, Colts @ Jaguars in the AFC South, Bears @ Packers in the NFC North, and both Texans @ Chiefs and Bengals @ Bills in the AFC Wild Card race. If you can't decide on a side to back, this article will give you some options to back for anytime touchdowns in all of Sunday afternoon's matchups.
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Best NFL Week 14 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted)
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
While this can probably be chalked up as another overall disappointing season for the former fourth overall pick, Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts has certainly seen an uptick in usage with Kirk Cousins under center. Pitts has seen at least eight targets in two of the three games started by Cousins this season, a total he reached in only two out of nine games started by Michael Penix Jr.
The Seahawks have also been sneakily susceptible to the tight end position despite being an otherwise really solid defense, allowing the third-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this year and ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of touchdowns allowed to tight ends.
The Falcons should be chasing points in this game, currently sitting as underdogs of around a touchdown, which should only increase the opportunities for Pitts. With Drake London set to miss another game this week, give me Pitts to break the seal on his scoreless drought and find the end zone as the clear top option for Cousins against a defense that has had a blind spot to the tight end position this season.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Darren Waller (TE – MIA) | +240
Darren Waller burst onto the scene in his return to the NFL, scoring twice in his first game back and four times in his first four games back before being sidelined for a month and a half due to injury. He made his return last week, though, and recorded 47 yards on just two receptions, including a season-long 34-yard catch. He also received a target in the back of the end zone that he just wasn't quite able to reel in for a touchdown.
While Waller's target share doesn't stand out due to his limited playing opportunities, what does stand out is that he has caught all four of his targets inside the 10-yard line, each one of them going for a touchdown. That's bad news for the Jets, who are tied for conceding the third-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends. I don't necessarily think Miami will have the same game control this week as they did in a home spot against the Saints last week, meaning they'll need to keep putting points on the board and attacking through the air more frequently.
This is a great spot for Waller, who has proven to be a reliable goal-line weapon when healthy, to get back in the end zone.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL) | +400
Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman is never going to be your first thought when looking for an anytime touchdown scorer on a run-heavy Ravens offense with plenty of pass-catching options. However, he's always worth a look when his odds are 4/1 or greater because his usage goes up the closer the Ravens get to the end zone. Although Bateman hasn't suited up for every game this season, he ranks second on the Ravens behind Mark Andrews in both red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line.
This Steelers defense is not the same Steelers defense of old, either, as they rank in the bottom half of the NFL in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts and bottom-five in yards allowed to opposing wideouts. With all the attention that gets drawn to the other weapons on the Ravens’ offense, I'll take Bateman as the forgotten man to find a hole in the Steelers’ coverage and score in his second consecutive game against Pittsburgh
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka has come down to Earth a little bit since his torrent start to the season, but what better team to juice his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign than the 2-10 Saints? Egbuka has been the definitive leader in targets around the end zone on this offense, garnering 23% and 28% of all targets to Buccs receivers inside the red zone and inside the 10-yard line, respectively.
Egbuka’s overall target share is there as well, as he has at least eight targets in each of his previous six games, though he has converted just one into a touchdown. The Saints have been vulnerable through the air as well, tied for eighth in terms of touchdowns allowed to opposing receivers with 13. I see the Buccaneers putting up a big number at home here against a hapless Saints team, and I think Egbuka breaks back into the touchdown column for at least one of those scores.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND) | +195
With all the attention that goes to running back Jonathan Taylor and the really nice rookie season from tight end Tyler Warren, Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has flown under the radar this year, tied for the fifth-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL (seven). Pittman has been a reliable big-bodied target for quarterback Daniel Jones around the goal line, ranking just behind Warren in this high-powered Colts offense, with 25% of all targets to Colts receivers inside the 10-yard line.
This should be a favorable matchup for Pittman, as the Jaguars’ defense he'll be up against ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers. Additionally, the Jones’ leg injury only increases the opportunities for Colts pass-catchers in the red zone, which we targeted and took advantage of with Warren last week. This week, I'll go with Pittman with the longer odds to find paydirt in what suddenly became a really pivotal battle in the AFC South.
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
Either Team to Score a D/ST Touchdown | +310 at Bet365
Little bit of a niche market here, but you can find either team to record a D/ST touchdown on bet365 under the "Score" tab at greater than 3/1 odds. Points figure to come at a premium in this game, which features the lowest total on the board this Sunday by a wide margin at just 33 points at some sportsbooks. Both defenses have scored multiple touchdowns this year, and Chimere Deke has been a special-teams star for the Titans with two punt return scores on the season.
Both teams will be starting rookie quarterbacks, increasing the chances for turnovers, and both teams have beasts on the defensive line in Myles Garrett and Jeffery Simmons. In a game where I don't really feel good about anyone scoring an offensive touchdown, I'll take a sprinkle on one of the other phases for either team to cause some havoc and score points, especially against two inexperienced signal-callers.
Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings
Veteran tight end Zach Ertz is coming off his biggest game of the season, setting season-highs in targets (13), receptions (10) and yards (106). Ertz ranks just behind wide receiver Deebo Samuel in terms of red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line on the Commanders, and all three of his receptions inside the 10-yard line have gone for touchdowns.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels is set to return for the Commanders this week. While Ertz’s big day last week came with Marcus Mariota under center, all four of Ertz's touchdowns this season have come from Daniels. The Vikings have given up their fair share of touchdowns to the tight end position this year as well, tied for allowing the seventh-most. The recent re-insertion of Terry McLaurin into the Commanders’ offense provides us with nice value on Ertz to get back into the scoring column, especially with the quarterback he's had such a great connection with when both are healthy.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins is set to return to the offense this week after missing their Thanksgiving Day game with a concussion. Higgins has absolutely earned his money this season, tied with the aforementioned Michael Pittman with the fifth-most touchdowns (seven) of any receiver in the NFL. Higgins has been especially on fire as of late, with scores in his last five games and six in his last seven.
Higgins ranks second behind Ja'Marr Chase in terms of red-zone targets on the Bengals, but is tied with Chase in terms of targets inside the 10-yard line. This game figures to cater to a very pass-heavy Bengals game script, as it features the highest total on the board at 53, with the Bengals underdogs of nearly a touchdown. That only increases the opportunities for Higgins to score. The Bengals are in the same position they were last year when they went on a run to end the season, which I'm sure is abundantly clear to Joe Burrow and company. Give me Higgins to stay hot and record his sixth touchdown in as many games at nearly 2/1 odds.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
Troy Franklin (WR – DEN) | +230
For the first time in several weeks, Troy Franklin's odds are noticeably longer than Courtland Sutton, which means it's the perfect time to take him to score. Franklin is the top dog in this offense by a wide margin in terms of red-zone targets (14), ranking in the top 10 in the NFL in that category and nearly doubling Sutton's red-zone opportunities. That trend holds regarding targets inside the 10-yard line as well. Franklin ranks just outside of the top 10 in the league but has accounted for a third of all targets inside the 10-yard line to Broncos pass-catchers.
The Raiders have been one of the worst in the NFL at defending opposing wideouts, as they rank in the bottom 10 in both fantasy points and yards allowed to opposing receivers, and have allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Franklin has familiarity with finding the end zone against the Raiders as well, as he scored the only Broncos touchdown in the game these two played nearly a month ago.
I'll buy low on Franklin here as the clear bread winner in terms of high-leverage targets on the Broncos in an A+ matchup against a Raiders defense that has had no answer to opposing wide receivers this season.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
DJ Moore becomes the de facto No. 1 WR in Chicago this week, as Rome Odunze is set to miss this game. Moore has been heating up down the stretch, with three games of 60+ yards in their last six games (one such performance in their first six games) and two touchdowns in their last two games (one touchdown in their first 10 games).
Moore ranks right behind Odunze in terms of high-leverage targets on the Bears, and figures to absorb most of Odunze’s target share with him missing this week. Moore has had some success against the Packers in his career as well, recording 60+ yards in all but one of his matchups against Green Bay, including two games of 100+ yards. He also scored against the Packers in their most recent showdown.
The Bears figure to be chasing points in this one as underdogs of nearly a touchdown. Give me Moore as the clear top receiving option to score his third touchdown in as many games in a game that will be paramount in determining the fate of the NFC North.
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Colby Parkinson (TE – LAR) | +180
I took a sprinkle on Rams rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson to score a touchdown last week, who did get an end-zone target. This week, I'm dialing down the odds to go with Colby Parkinson as the higher volume target in the Rams tight end room. Parkinson has really become a key part of this offense since the beginning of November, recording four or more targets and three touchdowns in three of the Rams’ previous 4 games.
We all know the damage that Davante Adams has done around the goal line, but it might surprise you to learn that Parkinson actually ranks second on the Rams, ahead of Puka Nacua, in both red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line. The Cardinals haven't exactly been stellar defending the tight end position this year. They rank in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends and just outside of the bottom 10 in both touchdowns and yards allowed. I like for the Rams to exercise some frustration this week against their division foes and for Parkinson to be on the receiving end of a touchdown as one of quarterback Matthew Stafford's most reliable red-zone weapons.
