3 NFL Week 14 Bets to Fade (2024)

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 14. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 14 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting Grant Calcaterra Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Philadelphia won't have Dallas Goedert for this game because of a knee injury, giving Calcaterra his fourth start this season.
He averaged 31 receiving yards per game in his previous three starts, totaling 30 or more in the final two contests against teams that struggle to defend tight ends.
The Panthers have given up the eighth-most yards to tight ends, surrendering 63 per game. Carolina has allowed 34 or more yards in 83.3% of their matchups this year.
They have surrendered 99 or more yards to tight ends in three of their past five games. The Panthers gave up 62 yards to Travis Kelce and 66 to Noah Gray two weeks ago.

Instead, Bet Saquon Barkley Over 99.5 Rushing Yards (-165)

Barkley leads the NFL with a career-high 1,499 yards. He leads the league in yards per game (124.9), averaging 16.7 more than the next closest player (Derrick Henry with 108.2).
He has had 107 or more yards in 66.7% of the games, reaching that total in six of the past seven contests, including three straight.
The superstar running back has more games with over 145 yards (five) than under 100 (four) this year. Barkley had 255 yards two weeks ago against the Los Angeles Rams.
Carolina has given up the most yards to running backs (1,652), surrendering 137.7 per game. They've allowed 143 or more yards in three of their past four games, including a season-high 228 last week.

Avoid Betting D'Andre Swift Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

While Swift is questionable to play Sunday because of a quad injury, the veteran should play, especially with Roschon Johnson (concussion) ruled out on Friday.
Swift has had 39 or fewer rushing yards in back-to-back games. However, that was against the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings, two of the top run defenses in the NFL.
By comparison, he averaged 81 yards per game over his previous seven contests. The star running back had at least 59 yards in six of those matchups (85.7%).
The 49ers' run defense has struggled since the Week 9 bye, giving up 129.3 yards per game to running backs. They've allowed over 100 yards in three of the past four games, including 158 or more in back-to-back contests.

Instead, Bet Isaac Guerendo Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

Unfortunately, Christian McCaffrey (knee) and Jordan Mason (ankle) won't play this week, making Guerendo the team's featured running back.
The rookie has been outstanding in limited action, totaling 85 or more rushing yards in both games with double-digit attempts this year.
Chicago has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Bears have surrendered the seventh-most yards to running backs, giving up 116.4 per game.
They have severely struggled since their Week 7 bye, giving up 139 yards per game to running backs. Chicago gave up at least 93 yards in every game, including 125 or more in back-to-back contests.

Avoid Betting Chase Brown Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Brown has averaged 19.8 receiving yards per game this season. However, he has averaged 44 yards per game in the four contests since Zack Moss went on injured reserve.
The second-year pro has had at least 30 yards in four consecutive games, totaling 52 or more in two of the past three contests.
He is second only to Ja'Marr Chase in targets over the past four games, ranking third in targets per contest (6.3) behind Chase (12.3) and Tee Higgins (11).
Dallas has surrendered the ninth-most yards to running backs, giving up 37.8 per game. They've allowed 28 or more yards to running backs in 75% of their games, including two of the past three matchups.

Instead, Bet Rico Dowdle Over 2.5 Receptions (-155)

Dowdle has become a consistent part of the Cowboys' passing attack. He has averaged 2.9 receptions per game this season, totaling three or more in 63.6% of the contests.
The veteran has three or more receptions in five of the past six games, including back-to-back matchups against the Washington Commanders and New York Giants.
Cincinnati has surrendered 4.2 receptions per game to running backs, allowing three or more in 66.7% of their contests, including three of the past four outings.
Last week, they gave up six receptions to Najee Harris and four to Jaylen Warren with Logan Wilson out of the lineup because of a knee injury. Wilson will likely miss his second consecutive game on Monday night.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.