3 NFL Week 16 Bets to Fade (2024)

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 16. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 16 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting Trey McBride Under 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

McBride has averaged 72.2 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 70 or more in 53.9% of the contests, including five consecutive outings.
He has recently been Kyler Murray's go-to receiver, averaging 12.8 targets per game since the bye week, totaling double-digit looks in every contest.
The start tight end has been on fire lately. McBride has averaged 88 yards per contest over the past eight weeks, totaling 70 or more in all but one game.
Carolina has struggled to slow down tight ends, surrendering the ninth-most yards per game to the position. They've given up 70 or more yards in nearly half of their matchups.

Instead, Bet James Conner Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-135)

The Cardinals will be without Emari Demercado (back) and Trey Benson (ankle) this week. Therefore, Conner will have even more of a featured role on Sunday.
He has averaged 69.5 rushing yards per game, totaling 86 or more in half of the contests this season. However, the veteran has been on fire lately.
Conner has averaged 17 rushing attempts for 89.3 yards per game over the past three weeks, totaling 90 or more in back-to-back contests.
Carolina has the worst run defense in the NFL. They've given up the most rushing yards per game to running backs (141.5), allowing 150 or more in three consecutive outings.

Avoid Betting Jalen McMillan Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

McMillan has averaged 27.9 receiving yards per game this year. However, he has averaged 41 yards per game since Chris Godwin's season-ending ankle injury.
The rookie has been productive when seeing enough targets. McMillan has averaged 46 yards per game in the four contests with four or more targets this season.
He has been on fire lately, averaging 4.5 receptions on 6.5 targets for 67 yards per game over the past two weeks, totaling 59 or more yards in both contests.
Dallas has surrendered the sixth-most yards per game to wide receivers entering Week 16 (157.4). They've given up 41 or more yards to five wide receivers over the past two weeks.

Instead, Bet Rico Dowdle Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

Dowdle has averaged 67.7 rushing yards per game despite splitting the backfield work with Ezekiel Elliott for most of the season.
However, he has been outstanding as the featured guy, averaging 113 yards per game in the five contests with 13 or more rushing attempts.
The veteran has averaged 21 rushing attempts for 119.5 yards per game over the past month. Last week, Dowdle set career highs in attempts (25) and yards (149) against the Carolina Panthers.
Tampa Bay has given up 80.7 yards per game to running backs this year, allowing 73 or more in 57.1% of their matchups.

Avoid Betting Josh Jacobs Under 89.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

Jacobs has averaged 81.9 rushing yards per game this season, totaling 94 or more in 35.7% of the contests, including two of the past four outings.
The star running back is coming off a strong performance against a talented Seattle Seahawks run defense, totaling 94 yards on 26 attempts in the win.
New Orleans' rushing defense has struggled this year. They've surrendered the ninth-most rushing yards per game to running backs entering Week 16 (104.9).
The Saints have given up 90 yards per game to running backs since their bye week. They've allowed 102 yards per contest over their past five matchups, surrendering 146 or more twice.

Instead, Bet Kendre Miller Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-135)

Miller has struggled to stay healthy this season, playing in only four contests. Yet, the second-year pro has been solid in limited action behind Alvin Kamara.
He has averaged seven attempts for 32.5 rushing yards per game this year. However, Miller will be the lead back on Monday, with Kamara unlikely to play because of a groin injury.
Green Bay has surrendered 87.1 yards per game to running backs this year, allowing 94 or more in over half of their matchups.
The Packers have given up 73 or more yards to running backs in 78.6% of their games, including nine of the past 11 contests.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.