More upsets and key injuries were the themes of Week 15. For Week 16, the big upset is me since we no longer will be having Thursday Night Football. We do still have our Saturday games this week, but making it through the entire week without NFL football is a bit depressing. To counteract this, let’s talk about these games. There is some key injury news that I have made note of in these games. They are game-altering situations, so keep one eye on the news and another on how these lines move. First, let’s make our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread.
Saturday Games
Washington at Titans (-10)
Weather: 51 degrees, no chance of rain
Washington found a win against a struggling Jacksonville team last week, while the Titans managed to stay alive with a win over the Giants. The big storylines for these two teams have both come from the offensive side of the ball. For Washington, they have been a mess since Alex Smith was lost at quarterback, but the top AAF draft pick Josh Johnson got the win last week. For the Titans, Derrick Henry has come alive. Sure, it took 14 weeks and cost many fantasy owners their chance at making the playoffs, but he's been an animal lately. Over the past two performances, he has 408 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Crazy. Tennessee has also been much better at home, sporting a 5-1 record and +33 point differential. The Titans are also healthier right now. Momentum is clearly on the Titans' side, and I think they just cover the spread.
Pick: Titans -10 (Low Confidence), WAS 13 — TEN 24
Ravens at Chargers (-4.5)
Weather: 62 degrees, 3% chance of rain
The Chargers may be the hottest team in the league, now tied with the Chiefs atop the AFC West. They will host the Ravens, led by rookie Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are still very much alive, but they do not have the offensive firepower to be in the same discussion as LA. The only reason this spread is so close is because of the injuries to the Chargers offensively. However, they are optimistic Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, and even Keenan Allen will play this week. As of writing Thursday morning, Gordon has practiced in full both days, Allen has been limited each day, and Ekeler has not practiced. It’s looking good for Allen and Gordon, so I’m picking Philip Rivers and that offense.
Pick: Chargers -4.5 (Medium Confidence), BAL 17 — LAC 24
Sunday, Early Games
Vikings at Lions (+5.5)
Weather: Dome
The Vikings offense found their groove in Week 15 and their playoff hopes are very much alive. The Lions, however, are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Detroit has officially ended rookie Kerryon Johnson’s season, by placing him on IR. We should also watch the injury news of Damon “Snacks” Harrison, who has not practiced yet. If he is out, the Vikings are a lock. But even if he plays, the Lions will have their hands full.
Pick: Vikings -5.5 (Medium Confidence), MIN 27 — DET 13
Falcons at Panthers (+2.5)
Weather: 53 degrees, no chance of rain
The Falcons are coming off a dominating win over the Bucs, while the Panthers looked terrible in a low-scoring loss on Monday night. This game is all about pride and minor bragging rights within the division because these teams do not have much to play for. To add to the fire in Carolina, Cam Newton has been placed on IR, meaning Taylor Heinicke will be taking snaps. For a depleted defense like Atlanta, removing one of the weapons is huge. I think both offenses will struggle, but I have a little faith in Atlanta simply because of the weapons Matt Ryan and Steve Sarkisian have to work with.
Pick: Falcons -2.5 (Medium Confidence), ATL 24 — CAR 20
Giants at Colts (-9.5)
Weather: Dome
The Colts sort of snuck up on us and now sit very relevant at 8-6. The surprising aspect may actually be their defense, which shut out the Cowboys last week. They will look to implement the same formula with Saquon Barkley and the Giants. With the Giants officially eliminated from the playoffs, they could rest some of their injured players. The Colts, obviously, are in must-win territory, and they will at home. The only thing that scares me is how wide the spread is, but with the Giants defense banged up, I believe the Colts can cover.
Pick: Colts -9.5 (Low Confidence), NYG 17 — IND 27
Packers at Jets (+3)
Weather: 40 degrees, no chance of rain
The Jets started the week favored, but hopefully you listened to me in the early-week betting lines article. I had confidence that Aaron Rodgers would play, and after practicing in full, the spread has moved to Green Bay by three. However, the Packers placed both running back Aaron Jones and defensive lineman Kenny Clark on IR. They have been two of the team’s best players this season, but they are also at positions that may matter less in a game against the Jets. Jamaal Williams will be closer to full time in the backfield for Green Bay, and with the Jets dealing with injuries at linebacker, Williams could exploit this. For the Jets, Darnold looked better last week because he used his legs, but he’s still not making good decisions. Mike Pettine will blitz him all day, trying to force situations where Darnold has to make a decision quickly.
Pick: Packers -3 (Medium Confidence), GB 27 — NYJ 20
Buccaneers at Cowboys (-7)
Weather: Dome
Both of these offenses sputtered last week, to say the least. The Bucs look to get DeSean Jackson back into the mix, and the Cowboys are hopeful to get Zack Martin back on their line after both players have practiced in a limited fashion. Obviously, Tampa is just trying to play spoiler. They want to end the season on a high note, as that would help both coach Dirk Koetter and quarterback Jameis Winston look better. The Cowboys are fighting to hold their playoff spot and not allow Philly to enter the offseason as underdogs again. The Dallas offense should find success against Tampa, and their defense is good enough to force turnovers against Winston.
Pick: Cowboys -7 (Medium Confidence), TB 14 — DAL 24
Bengals at Browns (-9.5)
Weather: 38 degrees, 21% chance of rain
Hue Jackson returns to his old stomping grounds! We know Hue is incapable of winning in Cleveland, so we can already rule that out. Seeing the Browns favored by nearly double-digits is an odd thing, I have to admit, but they can cover this spread. The Bengals continue to suffer injuries. We know about Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, but Tyler Boyd is also out the rest of the season, meaning John Ross is their top receiver. Meanwhile, the Browns are hot and have a great chance to hang on in the AFC North race this week with the Steelers facing the Saints and the Ravens battling the Chargers. A win here would put the Browns at 7-7-1, with a divisional record of 3-1-1. The game against Baltimore next week could end up being for the division, and I am all about this storyline happening. The Browns get an obvious win but also cover the spread.
Pick: Browns -9.5 (Medium Confidence), CIN 17 — CLE 27
Bills at Patriots (-13)
Weather: 40 degrees, no chance of rain
In not-so-shocking news this morning, Josh Gordon is facing an indefinite ban due to “violating terms of his reinstatement under the substance abuse policy.” He is the only real absence for this offense that needs a dominating win to build on. Star defensive tackle Kyle Williams for the Bills has not practiced this week, and his absence would open the door to the running game, setting up their dangerous play action. The stable of running backs that were all missing for the Bills last week have been limited at practice, which makes us optimistic that at least two will play. Look for the Patriots’ first key to be stopping Josh Allen and his legs. After that, I’m not sure the Bills can do much else.
Pick: Patriots -13 (Medium Confidence), BUF 13 — NE 30
Texans at Eagles (-2.5)
Weather: 43 degrees, no chance of rain
The end of this season is setting up eerily similar to last for the Eagles. The public has taken notice, and all of the bets their way has pushed this spread to 2.5 points in the Eagles favor. However, they are not the better team. The Texans are healthier and clearly better. The receiving duo of Hopkins and Thomas should be able to exploit the holes in the secondary. Defensively, the Texans are fantastic against the run, meaning Nick Foles will need to have a great day to beat them. Could this happen? Sure, but Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery are also not 100%, and the running game really isn’t that great for Philly. I guess this is an upset, but the Texans will spoil Nick Foles’ party.
Pick: Texans +2.5 (Medium Confidence), HOU 24 — PHI 20
Jaguars at Dolphins (-4)
Weather: 71 degrees, no chance of rain
This game is a tricky one. The Dolphins’ weakness is run defense, and the Jaguars want to run the ball. Jacksonville is also pretty healthy for their active roster players, while Danny Amendola (knee), Ryan Tannehill (shoulder), and Xavien Howard (knee) have all not practiced for Miami. Not having Howard is a big hole, but I’m also not sure that the Jaguars will be able to exploit it. Tannehill not practicing seems to be giving him rest, but they do not have a chance if it’s Brock Osweiler against the Jag defense. I expect Tannehill to play, for the record. The Dolphins have just a single loss at home this season, while the Jaguars have a single win away from theirs. I expect this pattern to continue.
Pick: Dolphins -4 (Low Confidence), JAC 13 — MIA 20
Sunday, Late Games
Rams at Cardinals (-14)
Weather: Dome
A hobbled Todd Gurley and the Rams look to keep their second seed with a win this week. The Cardinals are horrendous and don’t have much in terms of talent or creativity offensively. This bodes well for the struggling Rams defense. Wade Phillips will bring a ton of pressure on Rosen, forcing mistakes. Offensively for the Rams, Gurley is dealing with an inflamed knee. It would make sense for him to play if he is able to because that bye week would be huge for them. The Rams also brought in veteran C.J. Anderson to back him up, so we could be seeing him this week. He is good enough to continue the drives for this offense. I also think Jared Goff needs a confidence boost, so look for McVay to stay aggressive throughout this game, covering the spread.
Pick: (Medium Confidence), LAR 30 — ARI 13
Bears at 49ers (+4)
Weather: 56 degrees, 6% chance of rain
The Bears have clinched the NFC North, but they do still have something to play for. They are a single win behind the Rams for the second seed, so look for them to keep their focus. Khalil Mack is also returning to the bay, so there should be plenty of friends/family there to watch him. Anything that gives Mack a little extra motivation is not a good thing. I get that the Niners just beat the Seahawks, but I am expecting a meltdown after that emotional win.
Pick: Bears -4 (Medium Confidence), CHI 27 — SF 10
Steelers at Saints (-5.5)
Weather: Dome
Both teams pulled off hard-fought wins in Week 15. James Conner remains sidelined in practice with an ankle injury, but the Steeler offense has still looked better than the Saints’ in recent weeks. A win at home over a legit opponent is something Drew Brees and this offense needs. I think the Saints have a problem with playing down to their opponents’ level. But the good news is that they usually come to play against the good teams like the Steelers. Look for the Saints to use their running backs in creative ways and allow the offense to run through them early. The downfield shots will come for both teams, and I think the Saints will be able to convert more of them.
Pick: Saints -5.5 (Low Confidence), PIT 27 — NO 33
Sunday Night Football
Chiefs at Seahawks (+2.5)
Weather: 47 degrees, 37% chance of rain
Playing at Seattle in primetime is typically a death sentence, but if anyone can overcome it, it’s the Chiefs. The Seahawks are dealing with injuries to many key defensive players, which is not good news when Patrick Mahomes is coming to town. The Chiefs have been practicing without Sammy Watkins (foot), Mitchell Schwartz (knee) and Kendall Fuller (thumb). Kansas City is remaining optimistic that Fuller will play this week. He will be needed to help defend against Russell Wilson. While this will be a tough road win, I think the Chiefs do it. The over/under is currently set at 53.5, which is the highest of the week. With it being such a high total, this clearly gives the edge to the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs -2.5 (Medium Confidence), KC 31 — SEA 24
Monday Night Football
Broncos at Raiders (+2.5)
Weather: 56 degrees, 90% chance of rain
The Raiders’ final game in Oakland. If you need any sign of how they are taking it, they just made a decision to sign Nate Peterman. So yeah, it’s not going well. It’s not going well for Denver either, as they have suffered many tough injuries throughout this season. The secondary is depleted and will rely on the terrific pass rush to take some pressure off of them. While it has been a true rebuilding season for the Raiders, Jon Gruden is smart enough to take advantage of the Broncos’ weaknesses and get one last win for Oakland. I like the upset in the rain here.
Pick: (Low Confidence), DEN 20 — OAK 24
Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.