NFL Week 17 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)

This season at BettingPros, we're asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 17.

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Week 17 Spread Leans for Each Game

SF -10 @ LV
With the benching of franchise QB Derek Carr, the Raiders are poised to start backup QB Jarrett Stidham. On the plus side, Stidham is a four-year veteran who has spent his entire career under HC Josh McDaniels, first with the 2019-21 Patriots and now with the 2022 Raiders. He knows the offensive system well. On the negative side, Stidham is a forgotten former fourth-rounder with little experience and no starts on his NFL record. He has just 61 pass attempts in his career - and he has looked awful in converting them into just 342 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also had a 9.0% sack rate, and he offers nothing in the running game. The 49ers defense is No. 1 in EPA per play (-0.113) and No. 2 in dropback EPA (-0.097). Regardless of whatever you think about Carr, Stidham is an unquestioned downgrade - a significant one. Given the matchup, I think he's drawing dead.
– Matthew Freedman

CIN +1.5 vs. BUF
While the Bengals have not reached the peaks of the Bills in terms of individual offensive or defensive performances this season, they’ve been remarkably consistent week in and week out. An optimistic bettor will look at the potential of the Bills and favor them over any opponent, but a realistic bettor will look at their recent close games and think twice. Since Allen’s injury, 6 of the Bills’ 8 contests have been one score, despite the Bills being favored by less than a touchdown in only 2. Simply put, it’s unclear whether or not Allen, and by extension, the Bills, can consistently reach their ceiling. A 22-point win against the Bears (who were winning at the half) seems to be convincing the market of that much more than it convinces me.
– Robby Greer

PHI -6.5 vs. NO
In week 16, we saw the Gardner Minshew-led Philadelphia Eagles put up 34 points, the second most points scored against the Dallas Cowboys, who are 2nd in Football Outsiders pass DVOA metric. Aside from four fluke turnovers, the Eagles offense dazzled and continued to look like one of the best in the NFL. Now, taking on the Saints, who are 6-9 against the spread, the Eagles look to lock up the #1 seed. The Eagles are averaging 10 points more scored than the Saints, and 10 more points scored than their opponents this year. Eagles by one possession should be a breeze against a team that is averaging fewer than 14 points per game over the last month.
– Ben Wolbransky

DAL -12 @ TEN
The Titans’ season will come down to Week 18 against Jacksonville regardless of the outcome this week. Tannehill is already ruled out due to injury, and Derrick Henry is listed as doubtful. Even if Henry plays, the Titans are averaging 16.3 PPG in games started by Malik Willis. Since Dak’s return in Week 7, the Cowboys are average 36.0 PPG (1st in the NFL). The high-powered offense and the fact the Cowboys are still alive for the NFC East title should be enough to cover the large spread.
– Dylan Santora

BUF -1.5 @ CIN
If there’s one team that’s going to get in the way of the insane covering streak that the Bengals have been on for the past season and a half, its the Bills. Buffalo is the most complete team in the NFL, ranking in the top 5 in points scored per possession and points allowed per possession. They have the ultimate playmaker at QB in Josh Allen, who is spearheading an offense that ranks top 7 in passing YPA and averages more rushing YPA than any team in the league. The Bengals have been on the wrong side of injury luck lately, losing T La’el Collins on top of recent injuries to Sam Hubbard, Trey Hendrickson, and Hayden Hurst. Cincinnati has also been vulerable through the air, ranking in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed per pass attempt. Buffalo needs this game to hang onto the top seed in the AFC for the much-coveted BYE in the playoffs, and I believe they are the more complete team and will be able to cover this short spread.
– Austin MacMillan

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Week 17 Total Leans for Each Game

SF @ LV Over 41.5
I don’t expect this to be a high scoring affair, but Las Vegas is a team with Josh Jacobs (who leads the league in rushing), Davante Adams (8th most receiving yards among WRs), and Darren Waller (banged up, albeit, a top TE in the NFL). Yes, Jarrett Stidham is an unknown going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL, but the Raiders should be able to put up some points. I’m most interested in this over because since Brock Purdy took over as the 49ers QB, he’s been leading one of the most efficient, highest scoring teams in the NFL. Realistically, I think the 49ers offense (and defense) can put up 28 easily, and I don’t think its a stretch that the Raiders score 2 TDs, even in garbage time. It might be worth teasing this line down a bit, but I’m still on the over either way.
– Ben Wolbransky

CHI @ DET Under 52.0
The lack of talent surrounding Justin Fields and injuries on the offensive side of the ball has caught up to the Bears’ offense after a mid-season spike in production. The Bears scored 29.6 PPG from Weeks 7 – 11, but are now averaging 15.5 PPG over their last four games. We saw these two teams combine for 61 points in Week 10 in Chicago, but I wouldn’t expect Fields to run for 147 yards and two TDs again after dealing with a recent shoulder injury. The Lions can keep the ball on the ground against the third-worst run defense, in terms of yards allowed per game, just as the Bills did last week.
– Dylan Santora

MIA @ NE Under 41.5
The Dolphins offense will be hamstrung in this matchup, as Tua has been ruled out due to a concussion. Meanwhile, the Patiots have been anemic on offense all year long under Matt Patricia, ranking 24th in the NFL in points per possession and ranking in the bottom half of the league in nearly all offensive analytic statistics.Their defense has been stout, however, allowing the third least points per possession and ranking in the top 10 against the rush and the pass in terms of YPA. These teams only combined for 27 points in Week 1, with one of those scores coming as a result of a defensive touchdown. The Patriots have gone 5-2 to the under in home games this year, and 4-0 to the under in division games – a trend I see continuing between two below-average QBs in a game that both teams need to keep pace in the AFC wild card picture.
– Austin MacMillan

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