A fourth consecutive winning week (including a +200 hit) has our heads well above water as we enter the final week of the 2025 NFL regular season. That does not mean I will go out of my way to pick a bunch of longshots this week. But a couple have caught my eye. This week is particularly challenging for anytime TD scorer & win parlays, especially considering how sportsbooks are handling the release of touchdown props.
There are only a handful of games that have major playoff implications. Several teams will likely be resting some of their prominent players. As a result, there are multiple games with zero player props listed as of early Friday morning. Having said that, no excuses will be made on my end. The process remains the same, and I intend to keep the winning streak alive. Here are my three favorite Week 18 anytime touchdown scorer & win parlays.
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NFL Week 18 Anytime TD Scorer & Win Parlays
(All bets are for one unit, unless otherwise stated)
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Seasons in the NFL can turn on a dime. We have seen examples of that on both sides of Sunday's game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. It was not that long ago that Indianapolis was 8-2 and leading the AFC. At the beginning of November, Houston was 3-5 and missing their starting quarterback.
Fast forward to the present, and the Texans are 11-5 with a chance at a division title. Meanwhile, the Colts are turning to Riley Leonard as their Week 18 starter under center after Philip Rivers was unable to pull off a miracle and keep the team's playoff hopes alive following the season-ending injury to Daniel Jones. Houston is one of four double-digit favorites this week, and I expect them to handle business on Sunday.
The Colts play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. They have also allowed the second-most yards to opposing wide receivers this year. Enter Texans wide receiver Nico Collins. Collins is one of the best wideouts in the league when facing man coverage. He has the sixth-most receiving yards in the league versus man coverage.
The Colts will most likely be without Sauce Gardner, who has yet to practice this week after re-aggravating his calf injury in last week's loss. Indianapolis has registered just four sacks over its last four games, so Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud should be able to operate from a clean pocket. Opposing quarterbacks have accounted for seven touchdowns against the Colts over the past two weeks. Collins scored in a Houston victory the last time these teams squared off, and I expect history to repeat itself on Sunday.
Bet: Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Houston Texans to Win (+194 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The reason that Houston will probably fall short of a division crown even if they defeat Indianapolis is that the Jacksonville Jaguars remain one game in front in the AFC South. Further complicating Houston's hopes is that the Jaguars face the Tennessee Titans in Week 18. The Titans are a bottom-five team in most relevant metrics. That includes a 29th-ranked DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) on defense.
Tennessee has allowed at least 25 points to five of its last six opponents. That includes a 22-point loss to Jacksonville the last time these teams faced off. With the Titans playing out the string and the Jaguars needing a win to secure a home playoff game, I am confidently backing Jacksonville to win this game outright. Picking their anytime touchdown scorer is a little more difficult.
Travis Etienne Jr. leads the team with 13 total touchdowns this season. The problem is that the sportsbooks have inflated his price. The cheapest I found an Etienne anytime touchdown scorer/Jacksonville Moneyline parlay was -169 on Caesars Sportsbook. I think there is a decent chance that hits, but that price is too rich for my blood.
Jacksonville has a prolific passing attack, and Tennessee struggles in pass coverage. However, to their credit, the Jaguars have spread out touches in the red zone quite a bit among their primary pass-catchers. That makes locking in on a single wide receiver a tough sell. Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington could all be decent values at the right price. As good as that group has been, none have more than four touchdowns this year. Which leads me to quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence has nine rushing touchdowns this year. He has more rushing touchdowns than Bijan Robinson, De'Von Achane and Saquon Barkley, among others. Lawrence is not considered your prototypical rushing threat. But he has been very aggressive, calling his own number down by the goal line. This trend has grown since around midseason.
Since Week 9, Lawrence has carried the ball 10 times inside the opponents' 10-yard line. Those 10 carries have resulted in six touchdowns. That is one more than Etienne, and three more than any other Jaguar. No Jacksonville receiver has more than two touchdowns in that span. I think there is value in betting on Lawrence, especially given his price relative to other players on his team. Therefore, I am taking Lawrence to score his 10th touchdown of the year as well as the Jaguars to beat the Titans.
Bet: Trevor Lawrence Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Jacksonville Jaguars to Win (+220 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
I do not make it a habit to target a team that has already won 11 games on the season. However, I am doing just that with my final parlay. The Los Angeles Chargers may be 11-5, but they will be hard-pressed to earn a victory this week. They will be without star quarterback Justin Herbert and have announced that Trey Lance will start.
Lance has neither thrown a touchdown pass nor won an NFL start in over four years. More importantly, the Chargers are facing one of the best teams and defenses in the league in the Denver Broncos. A Broncos victory will earn them the top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. I believe the Chargers will ultimately fall short in their regular-season finale. Give me Denver on the Moneyline.
The Chargers have been solid defensively this year, but they do have an area of interest that Denver can exploit. Los Angeles ranks eighth in the NFL in defensive DVOA versus the pass, but just 18th against the run. DVOA does not always tell us the full story when it comes to strengths and weaknesses. However, in this case, the numbers do not lie, especially when digging into defensive red-zone statistics.
The Chargers have given up the third-fewest passing yards and passing touchdowns inside their own 20-yard line this year. They have been much more vulnerable on the ground. Los Angeles has allowed 13 rushing touchdowns inside the red zone, which is right around league average. However, they have permitted the second-highest yards per rush in that area of the field. These numbers point to one Bronco above the rest - rookie running back RJ Harvey.
Since taking over as the team's lead back following the injury to J.K. Dobbins, Harvey has dominated red-zone looks. He has 23 red-zone touches in Denver's last six games. That includes seven touches inside the 5-yard line. No other Broncos player has touched the ball more than once inside the 5-yard line in that timeframe.
That increased volume in scoring territory has helped Harvey score at least one touchdown in five consecutive games. Harvey was still very much a role player when these teams first met back in September. But Dobbins ran for 83 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries. Given Harvey's expanded role in recent weeks, I like him to keep his scoring streak going in this matchup.
Bet: RJ Harvey Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Denver Broncos to Win (-130 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
