3 NFL Week 18 Bets to Fade (2025)

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 18. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 18 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting Bucky Irving Under 88.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Irving has averaged 64.6 rushing yards per game this season. However, he has been a superstar since the team's Week 11 bye, averaging 90.2 yards per game.
The rookie has averaged 107.6 yards per game over his last five healthy contests, totaling 88 or more in all but one, including at least 113 in 60% of the outings.
He had 14 rushing attempts for 81 yards in the Week 6 matchup against the Saints despite Sean Tucker totaling 14 attempts for 136 yards in that contest.
New Orleans has surrendered 110.3 yards per game to running backs this year, allowing 144 or more in three of the past five contests. Last week, Ameer Abdullah had 115 yards against the Saints.

Instead, Bet Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-175)

Mayfield has 39 passing touchdowns, the second most in the NFL behind Joe Burrow (42). The veteran has averaged a career-high 2.4 touchdowns per game this season.
The veteran quarterback has had at least two touchdowns in 68.8% of the games, hitting that total in four consecutive contests, including two outings with four or more scores.
He is also an excellent bet to have three or more touchdowns (+185). Mayfield has had three or more touchdowns in half of the games, including a career-high five last week.
New Orleans has given up two touchdowns to quarterbacks in four of their past six games, including to Aidan O'Connell last week. More importantly, they allowed a season-high four touchdowns to Mayfield in the Week 6 matchup.

Avoid Betting Zach Charbonnet Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Charbonnet has averaged 31.9 rushing yards per game this year. However, the second-year pro has been productive as the starting running back.
He has averaged 74.8 yards per game in his five starts this season, totaling at least 54 in four of those five contests, including four straight outings.
The former UCLA star has averaged 68.7 yards per game in seven career starts, totaling 54 or more in 71.4% of those contests.
Los Angeles has surrendered 101.1 yards per game to running backs this year, allowing 100.3 per contest over their past seven matchups, giving up 57 or more in all but one.

Instead, Bet Geno Smith Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Smith has averaged 256.1 passing yards per game this season, totaling 254 or more yards in half of the contests, including 314 two weeks ago against the Minnesota Vikings.
He has had over 310 yards in nearly a third of the games this year (five). Furthermore, Smith had his second-highest yardage total this season (363) against the Rams in Week 9.
While the Seahawks have been eliminated from the playoffs, making this week's game worthless, Smith earns $2 million in incentives if he has 185 or more yards.
The Rams have given up the ninth-most yards per game to quarterbacks this season. They've allowed 265.3 yards per game over the past month, giving up 320 or more twice, including last week.

Avoid Betting Jahmyr Gibbs Under 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Gibbs has averaged 79.6 rushing yards per game this year, totaling at least 90 in four contests, including back-to-back outings with 109 or more.
He has been exceptional with David Montgomery out of the lineup, averaging 105.2 yards per game in five career contests without the veteran, totaling 105 or more in every outing this season.
The superstar was outstanding against the Vikings in Week 7. He had 116 yards on only 15 rushing attempts, his third-highest yardage total this year despite Montgomery playing.
Minnesota's run defense has struggled lately. They've given up 96.6 yards per game to running backs over their past five outings, allowing 98 or more in 60% of the contests, including last week.

Instead, Bet Justin Jefferson Over 6.5 Receptions (-125)

Jefferson has the seventh-most receptions in the NFL this season (100), averaging 6.3 per game. He has had seven or more receptions in half of the contests.
The superstar receiver has been a target machine lately, averaging 7.8 receptions per game over the past five weeks, totaling seven or more in every outing.
He has averaged 7.7 receptions per game in nine career contests against Detroit, totaling seven or more in 66.7% of the outings, including the Week 7 matchup earlier this year.
Last week, the Lions gave up seven receptions on 10 targets to Jauan Jennings and eight receptions on 10 targets to Ricky Pearsall.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.