Our first parlay of the 2022 season hit, as the Steelers won outright, the Texans nearly won outright (but covered), and the under in the Bears-49ers game hit with ease as the teams struggled through a legitimate Chicago monsoon.
Is this a sign of things to come? Hopefully! We also hit our Colts-Texans and Falcons-Saints same-game parlays, with a couple of near misses included.
Let’s keep the momentum rolling with our Week 2 parlay picks:
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Week 2 Parlay
- Leg 1: Detroit Lions -125 moneyline
- Leg 2: Carolina Panthers +2
- Leg 3: New Orleans Saints +2.5
- Leg 4: Under 39.5 Jets-Browns
Odds: +1180
The Lions should be able to find success offensively against a Commanders defense that yielded 6.2 yards per play against Jacksonville in Week 1. Washington also surrendered nearly seven yards per rush last week, which could bode well for a Lions offense that averaged 6.5 yards per carry in Week 1.
The Panthers are mainly a spot play, as I find it interesting that they’re less than a field goal road underdogs against a Giants team that garnered plenty of praise for their Week 1 win. Daniel Jones is 7-12 ATS at home and has some significant question marks in the secondary.
The Saints are 4-0 against the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers over the last two seasons and have given Brady fits in several of those games. With Tampa’s offense banged up, I expect them to struggle mightily again in the Caesars Superdome.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 at New Orleans Saints, Total 44
- Leg 1: Saints +2.5
- Leg 2: Tom Brady under 276.5 passing yards
Odds: +265
Many props are off the board as of writing due to injury uncertainty. However, I feel pretty strongly about these two legs. I’ve already outlined how New Orleans has dominated Tampa Bay in Brady’s two seasons with the Bucs. And a big reason why is they’ve been able to effectively pressure and fluster Brady. Brady has gone well under this yardage total in three of his four games against New Orleans. And with left tackle Donovan Smith potentially missing this game, Brady could be feeling the heat often against a Saints pass rush that recorded four sacks in Week 1.
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens -3.5, Total 44.5
- Leg 1: Devin Duvernay under 28.5 receiving yards
- Leg 2: Mark Andrews over 61.5 receiving yards
- Leg 3: Chase Edmonds over 20.5 receiving yards
- Leg 4: Baltimore -3.5
Odds: +1068
The first two legs of this parlay are somewhat connected. I expect Duvernay to be the Week 1 hero we probably don’t hear from again. While he put up a solid stat line of 4-54-2, 42 of his 54 receiving yards came on his two touchdown catches. I’m willing to bet that Duvernay doesn’t have a repeat performance. Part of the reason why is I expect more involvement from Mark Andrews, who put up 52 yards last week in what would be considered a disappointing performance from him. The Dolphins yielded the 10th-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends last season. Andrews should bounce back in a big way.
On the other side, Edmonds should see a ton of check-down work against the Ravens, who could be in Tua Tagovailoa’s face all day. This prop feels low after Edmonds put up 40 receiving yards last weekend. Lastly, the Ravens seem to be coming at a discount at home after a sluggish win over the Jets in the season opener.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants -2, Total 43.5
- Leg 1: Panthers +2
- Leg 2: Christian McCaffrey over 39.5 receiving yards
- Leg 3: Daniel Jones to throw an interception
Odds: +637
Over his young career, Daniel Jones has simply been a better quarterback on the road than at MetLife Stadium. He’s 7-12 straight up and against the spread at home, and he’s thrown 19 picks at MetLife compared to just 11 on the road. I didn’t love what I saw from Carolina’s defense against the pedestrian Jacoby Brissett. However, Brissett is a veteran who if nothing else takes care of the ball. As for McCaffrey’s prop, the Giants gave up 61 receiving yards to Dontrell Hilliard last week, including two scores. I’d expect CMC to see more work in the passing game after making it through Week 1 healthy.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions -1.5, Total 48.5
- Leg 1: Lions -125 moneyline
- Leg 2: D’Andre Swift over rushing yards
- Leg 3: Over 48.5 points
Many props are off the board right now due to uncertainty on the injury front. But if you simply want to parlay the side and total, that’s paying +243 on DraftKings. As for Swift, I expect him to run all over a Commanders defense that allowed nearly seven yards per carry to the less dynamic Jacksonville backfield headlined by the plodding James Robinson. Swift should eat.
New England Patriots -2 at Pittsburgh Steelers, Total 40
- Leg 1: Patriots -2
- Leg 2: Mitchell Trubisky under 219.5 passing yards
- Leg 3: Under 40 points
Odds: +535
I expect Pittsburgh to be a public underdog in Week 2 after their upset over the defending AFC champs last week. However, Pittsburgh was a little lucky to get out with a win, hence why the Patriots are giving two points despite looking inept offensively in Miami a week ago.
Mitchell Trubisky hardly did anything in the victory, throwing for 194 yards and a touchdown. I’m expecting him to struggle mightily against Bill Belichick’s defense. New England’s offense could be a mess once again, but Pittsburgh’s defense won’t be as intimidating without T.J. Watt. I’m expecting both teams to keep the ball on the ground in what could be the ugliest game of the weekend. Also, Bill Belichick is 48-22 against the spread after a loss and 29-9 ATS on the road off a loss.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns -6.5, Total 39.5
- Leg 1: Under 39.5 points
- Leg 2: Michael Carter over 1.5 receptions
Odds: +240
Speaking of ugly, let’s head to Cleveland, where Joe Flacco and Jacoby Brissett will duke it out. Gross. Taking a total this low is always a little scary, but I think both the Browns and Jets defenses are being underrated right now. Cleveland still has a ferocious pass rush, and we saw how much the Jets struggled to protect the statuesque Flacco last weekend against Baltimore. New York’s defense also has some serious talent, as cornerbacks Ahmad Gardner and D.J. Reed did a really good job of shutting down Baltimore’s primary weapons. The Browns are going to be a ground-and-pound team for as long as Brissett is under center, which means this game could fly by. As for Carter, he caught seven balls in New York’s Week 1 loss and should see plenty of check-down work as Flacco fights for his life in the pocket.
Indianapolis Colts -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars, Total 45.5
- Leg 1: Jaguars +4
- Leg 2: Michael Pittman over 64.5 receiving yards
- Leg 3: Christian Kirk over 57.5 receiving yards
Odds: +489
Jacksonville has been a house of horrors for the Colts, who have lost seven straight games on the road against the Jaguars. The Colts may have revenge on their mind after the Jaguars kept Indy out of the playoffs. But this should still be a close divisional contest. Pittman is the only proven asset in the Colts’ passing game, and he should thrive against a Jaguars secondary that struggled to cover Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson a week prior. I loved how Kirk was used in Week 1 and think he could thrive in the slot against a Colts secondary that has questions beyond Stephon Gilmore.
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams -10, Total 46.5
- Leg 1: Falcons +10
- Leg 2: Darrell Henderson under 59.5 rushing yards
- Leg 3: Cooper Kupp over 94.5 receiving yards
Odds: +522
The Falcons’ defense continues to be underrated. Atlanta has two studs in defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and cornerback A.J. Terrell. Jarrett in particular could give Matthew Stafford fits, especially when considering Rams center Brian Allen will miss Sunday’s game. For that reason, I expect Atlanta to keep this game close and stifle Henderson in the running game. I’m taking the cheese on Kupp because it’s clear that Stafford probably won’t look at anyone else. It’ll be interesting to see if Terrell shadows Kupp even when he lines up in the slot. I’m anticipating he won’t. And even if he does, Kupp will get his.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers -8.5, Total 41
- Leg 1: Trey Lance over 38.5 rushing yards
- Leg 2: Trey Lance anytime TD scorer
- Leg 3: 49ers -8.5
Odds: +834
As you can probably tell, I’m not taking a ton of stock into what we saw from both of these teams last week. The 49ers played in frankly unplayable conditions, and not even Tom Brady could’ve played well in those elements. I think the 49ers will unleash Lance against a Seahawks defense that struggled mightily against Denver last Monday night, allowing 433 yards and 5.2 yards per rush. And after a strong first half from Geno Smith, the Seahawks’ offense looked more like the inept unit we expected in the second half. It’s rare to get a buy-low spot on a team laying over a touchdown, but I think that could be the case in this one.
Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders -5.5, Total 51.5
- Leg 1: Over 51.5
- Leg 2: Davante Adams over 92.5 receiving yards
Odds: +238
There’s some uncertainty surrounding this game, which is why many of Arizona’s props weren’t on the board as of this writing. Davante Adams and Derek Carr clearly have a connection, and I’d expect them to put up a ton of yards and points against a Cardinals defense that served up 360 passing yards to Kansas City the week prior. I also expect a talented Cardinals offense to keep up on the scoreboard against a Raiders defense that I’m not sold on, specifically on the back end.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos -10, Total 45
- Leg 1: Texans +10
- Leg 2: Courtland Sutton over 52.5 receiving yards
Odds: +243
The Texans are simply an undervalued team, as evidenced by their Week 1 tie against the Colts. Sure, blowing a 17-point lead isn’t ideal. But we just need Lovie Smith’s bunch to keep games within the number. Perhaps I’m overreacting to one week, but I was really discouraged by what I saw from Denver in primetime. The Broncos didn’t play their starters in the preseason, and it showed in Week 1. Denver’s offense struggled to get plays in, looked totally out of sync, and committed a ton of penalties and miscues. I’ve also lost a lot of respect for Nathaniel Hackett already after how he botched that game late.
This isn’t a favorite game of mine from a prop perspective. But I was surprised to see Courtland Sutton’s yardage total at just 52.5 yards, which is lower than Jerry Jeudy’s. While Jeudy caught the long touchdown, Sutton saw more targets and caught four of them for 72 yards. He should eclipse this total against Smith’s cover 2 defensive scheme.
Cincinnati Bengals -7 at Dallas Cowboys, Total 41.5
- Leg 1: Under 41.5
- Leg 2: Joe Burrow under 264.5 passing yards
How much does Dak Prescott matter? Apparently, about nine points, as lookahead lines had this at Dallas -2 before Prescott’s injury Sunday night. While I can’t get behind the Cowboys with Cooper Rush under center, I do think the under is the smartest play. Dallas’ offense looked bad even with Prescott in the game, and this team has major issues along the offensive line. Michael Gallup is also sorely missed, as the Cowboys don’t have a reputable threat to take attention off of CeeDee Lamb. Cincinnati was a mess offensively last week, and I expect more of the same as its offensive line continues to gel together. Dallas’ pass rush made life difficult for Tom Brady last week, and I’m expecting more of the same in a desperate effort to avoid going 0-2.
Odds: +257
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers -10, Total 41.5
- Leg 1: Bears team total under 15.5
- Leg 2: Packers -10
Odds: +272
The Bears scratched together 19 points on just 204 total yards, seven of which came on a completely busted coverage and a 51-yard touchdown throw to Dante Pettis. And Chicago’s third touchdown of the game came after a terrible Trey Lance interception set Chicago up on the San Francisco 21-yard line. Yes, the conditions were awful. But the Bears were probably fortunate to crack double digits last weekend.
The Packers meanwhile are coming off an ugly loss to Minnesota in which the offense looked out of sync all game. It’s oddly reminiscent of last year’s 38-3 season-opening loss to New Orleans, in which Aaron Rodgers threw for just 133 yards. In Week 2 of last year, the Packers bounced back at home, beating the Detroit Lions 35-17. I could see a similar situation playing out here.
We’re once again dealing with a really limited prop menu as of writing. So I’ll ride with Green Bay to bounce back and stifle Chicago’s lackluster offense.
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