Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Now, let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 3!
NFL Week 3 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
2023 total: Up 3.5 units
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Odds: +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Colts may be missing their starting rookie quarterback. Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion last week and is questionable this week against the Ravens. The Ravens could be short-handed at running back, and Odell Beckham Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury. That gives Mark Andrews a prime opportunity to increase his target share. He missed week one but received 24% of the team's targets last week and is facing a defense that allows 287 passing yards per game, with 55 yards per game going to the tight end position. They have not played against a talent like Andrews at tight end this year, and he should exploit their defense.
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
Odds: +1200 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Titans have been stellar at defending the run but have struggled in pass defense. They allow 11.3 yards per pass completion and 281.5 passing yards per game. The Browns average 202 rushing yards per game, and the Titans sell out to stop the run. It would make sense for them to attempt to slow down the Browns' rushing attack now that Nick Chubb is out. Deshaun Watson should have passing lanes against this defense. Cooper is dealing with a groin injury, but he posted seven receptions for 90 yards last week against the Steelers while managing the nagging injury. He is a solid play, especially at this price.
Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins
Odds: +650 via PointsBet
The offense is running through Tyreek Hill currently, and his target share could increase this week. Jaylen Waddle is questionable and is in concussion protocol. Hill has received 32% of the team's targets this year with Waddle on the field and has caught three TDs. Pat Surtain will line up across from Hill for the most part, but Miami will be creative and get him the ball in any fashion. The Broncos have been mediocre at defending the pass this year, allowing 9.9 yards per attempt and four passing TDs. Hill is having a terrific start to the season and will carry that momentum into this game. He may even become a better play if Waddle cannot play.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Odds: +1600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
This game has the lowest total of the week at 36, so this may take a while. Both teams have stellar defenses, but their offenses have trouble scoring enough points. Zach Wilson was picked off three times last week against the Cowboys, and their offense looked pedestrian. The Patriots average 82 rushing yards per game and have had injuries on their offensive line. The Patriots' defense could score on a pick-six against Wilson to start the game, but Bourne is a good option. He has received 20.8% of the team's targets and is a dynamic player capable of making big plays.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Odds: +550 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Jaguars have not allowed a point in the first quarter, and the Texans have given up three first-quarter rushing touchdowns. Etienne is listed very low on other sportsbooks, which is unusual for this market. He has been the workhorse back for this team and is facing a defense that allows 118 rushing yards per game. Etienne also has eight targets and seven receptions through two games and could catch a TD at any moment. He is a playmaker facing a weak run defense, so he has a decent chance to cash this wager.
Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions
Odds: +550 via FanDuel Sportsbook
David Montgomery has not practiced this week and is trending in the wrong direction as the game nears. This injury may be Gibbs' chance to show his running ability for the entire game. He was limited to 27% of snaps in week one but played 48% in week two after Montgomery left with an injury. The Falcons give up the third-fewest yards (267.5 yards per game) in the league but allow 119 rushing yards per game. The Lions' defense matches up well with the Falcons, as they stop the run well. Gibbs is a smash play with Montgomery out and a solid play if Montgomery plays.
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
Odds: +1200 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Packers' offense is not very efficient at moving the ball, but they have the second most points in the league (62) going into week three. They rank 27th in total yards with 286 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Saints are the opposite. The Saints also have a good defense, which the Packers do not. They are weak against the run, but the Saints have injuries at the position. Olave has received 30% of the team's targets, with most coming deep down the field. He has a solid chance to catch a long one this week against a shaky Packers defense.
Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders
Odds: +900 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Cook has played on 59% of snaps each week but has yet to find the end zone this season. Damien Harris and Latavius Murray scored a TD last week, but they have had fewer opportunities than Cook. Cook averages 5.8 yards per attempt as the primary back, and the Commanders allow 4.5 yards per attempt. He has a good matchup this week and will face a fierce pass rush, which may lead the Bills to lean on their ground game, which averages 140 rushing yards per game. He is a sneaky good play to score first Sunday.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings
Odds: +850 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Chargers have been awful against the pass this season, allowing 333 yards per game. Jefferson is trailing only Puka Nacua in total targets this season with 25, and he has caught 20. There may not be a player in the league that can guard him, certainly not in this matchup. This bet may depend on who gets the ball first because the Vikings are not good at defending the run. Each offense's strength is the defense's weakness, so expect points early and often, and Jefferson should have great opportunities to find the end zone.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Odds: +500 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Andy Dalton will start instead of rookie Bryce Young (ankle), which is probably good news for the Panthers. Dalton was average last year in New Orleans, averaging 205.1 yards per game with 18 TDs and nine interceptions. The Seahawks are not good against the pass, but the Panthers do not have many weapons on offense. Walker is facing a defense that gives up 4.5 yards per attempt. Walker is a safe play, but his matchup is too good to pass up.
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: +490 via FanDuel Sportsbook
This game is good for the Chiefs to get their offense in a groove. They average 18.5 points per game this season and are converting 33.3% of their third downs. They are sixth in average passing yards with 262 yards per game. Travis Kelce saw 22% of the targets in his first game of the season last week and did not play a third of the snaps. He is Patrick Mahomes' favorite target, with whom he has the most chemistry. It is not an exciting play, but it is a safe play. The Bears are beatable everywhere, but Kelce is the most valued target for the Chiefs. He has a high chance of scoring first.
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
Odds: +1100 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Trevon Diggs tore his ACL in practice and will miss the season. He is a massive loss for the Cowboys, but it should not affect them much against the Cardinals this week. The Cardinals have been better than expected with Joshua Dobbs at the helm, but they have still come up short in both games. They have allowed 68 yards per game to the tight end position with an average of 12.38 yards per completion. Ferguson has received 17% of the team's targets and eight targets inside the 20. He is a solid player to score first based on red zone target share alone.
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