Here is my breakdown for Eagles vs. Commanders along with my top predictions and top picks.
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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions: Eagles vs. Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Check out our Eagles at Commanders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV: FOX
Eagles at Commanders: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Eagles -6.5
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline: Eagles -278, Commanders +240
Eagles at Commanders: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
- Spread: Eagles - 55% bets, 58% money
- Over/Under: Under - 51% bets, 81% money
- Moneyline: Eagles - 67% bets, 67% money
Eagles at Commanders: Key Injuries
Philadelphia Eagles: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Quez Watkins | WR | Illness | DNP |
| Avonte Maddox | CB | Back | LP |
| Haason Reddick | OLB | Knee | LP |
Philadelphia Eagles: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR): OUT
- OT Andre Dillard (arm, IR): OUT
- OL Brett Toth (knee, PUP): OUT
- TE Tyree Jackson (knee, PUP): OUT
Washington Commanders: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Shaka Toney | DE | Illness | DNP |
| Casey Toohill | DE | Concussion | DNP |
| Daniel Wise | DT | Ankle | DNP |
| Saahdiq Charles | OT | Shoulder | LP |
| Cole Holcomb | LB | Quad | LP |
| Trai Turner | G | Quad | LP |
Washington Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Chase Young (knee, PUP): OUT
- C Chase Roullier (knee, IR): OUT
- C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP): OUT
- RB Brian Robinson (leg, PUP): OUT
- DT Phidarian Mathis (knee, IR): OUT
Eagles at Commanders: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Philadelphia Eagles Trends
- HC Nick Sirianni: 1-4-1 ATS (44.4% ROI) in division
Washington Commanders Trends
- Divisional Underdogs: 205-146-11 ATS (13.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-4
- Divisional Underdogs: 140-100-6 ATS (13.2% ROI) vs. team with two-game win streak
- Divisional Underdogs: 24-10-2 ATS (36.1% ROI) vs. team with two-game win streak in Weeks 1-4
Eagles at Commanders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.212 | 4 | 0.068 | 24 | 20 |
| Total SR | 50.0% | 4 | 43.0% | 12 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 27.3% | 5 | 16.2% | 28 | 23 |
Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.061 | 12 | 0.08 | 28 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 45.1% | 18 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 8.1% | 11 | 5.8% | 27 | 16 |
Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.069 | 10 | -0.028 | 9 | -1 |
| Total SR | 41.7% | 22 | 45.7% | 21 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | -0.1% | 15 | -9.6% | 9 | -6 |
Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.036 | 21 | 0.009 | 17 | -4 |
| Total SR | 44.8% | 14 | 46.2% | 22 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | -5.3% | 21 | 4.7% | 25 | 4 |
Eagles at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jalen Hurts
- EPA + CPOE: 0.154 (No. 7)
- AY/A: 8.7 (No. 5)
- QBR: 70.8 (No. 7)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 1.7 (No. 7)
2021: Jalen Hurts
- EPA + CPOE: 0.088 (No. 18)
- AY/A: 7.1 (No. 15)
- QBR: 54.6 (No. 19)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.5 (No. 12)
Career: Jalen Hurts
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 48.0
2022: Carson Wentz
- EPA + CPOE: 0.112 (No. 11)
- AY/A: 7.5 (No. 9)
- QBR: 51.7 (No. 14)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.2 (No. 18)
2021: Carson Wentz
- EPA + CPOE: 0.070 (No. 22)
- AY/A: 7.3 (No. 13)
- QBR: 60.6 (No. 9)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.6 (No. 35)
Career: Carson Wentz
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -2.2
Key Matchup: Commanders Interior Offensive Line vs. Eagles DTs Fletcher Cox & Javon Hargrave
If QB Carson Wentz is to exorcise his demons in this #RevengeGame against his former team, the interior of his offensive line will need to play well.
C Chase Roullier (knee, IR) is out, as is backup C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP). And missing from last year’s starting unit are LG Ereck Flowers (released) and RG Brandon Scherff (free agency). So in Week 3 the Commanders will have three new year-over-year starters on the interior of their line, and this exact trio has never played together as a unit.
Given the situation, this looks like an excellent setup for DTs Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave.
Even so, I think the Commanders will perform adequately on their interior offensive line. RG Wes Schweitzer will shift to center, and he has made 19 starts in the interior for the Commanders since 2020: He knows the system. Replacing Schweitzer at right guard will be backup Trai Turner — a Pro-Bowler for HC Ron Rivera and OC Scott Turner from their time together with the Panthers. And although LG Andrew Norwell is new to the team, he is another Panthers transplant and was an All-Pro in 2017. He and Turner manned the interior of the Panthers offensive line together for four years (2014-17).
Even with injury issues and new starters, this is not a patchworked interior. It has decent continuity — and Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell could be significant drivers of success for the Commanders.
Without EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR), the Eagles defense is just No. 27 in adjusted sack rate (3.7%) through two games. If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are competent, they might be able to keep Wentz clean in the pocket.
And despite the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free agency) and LBs Kyzir White (free agency) and Nakobe Dean (draft), the Eagles are still bottom-five in run defense in every key metric.
- Rush EPA: 0.204 (No. 32)
- Rush SR: 50.0% (No. 28)
- Rush DVOA: 23.1% (No. 29)
- Adj. Line Yards: 5.56 (No. 29)
If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are able to hold their own against Cox and Hargrave in run blocking, the Commanders could use the rushing game to extend drives, grind down the clock, keep the explosive Eagles offense on the sideline — and keep the game close.
This line was -1 in the preseason and -3 in the lookahead market last Thursday. The -6.5 we see in the market now is an overreaction to the Eagles’ 2-0 start and their 24-7 Week 2 win against the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
Best Line: Commanders +6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Commanders +6.5 (-105)
Personal Projection: Commanders +3.25
Limit: Commanders +5.5
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