We had another really good week in the anytime TD scorer picks market in Week 3, cashing Rome Odunze and Davante Adams picks in the +100 to +200 range, cashing Marcus Mariota, Quinshon Judkins and Garrett Wilson picks at odds north of +200, and then capping it off with hits on TJ Hockenson and Elic Ayomanor with odds in excess of +300. We also just missed out on hitting Rhamondre Stevenson due to a goal-line fumble.
I'm going back to the well for some of those players this week after seeing their odds jump for curious reasons, as well as trying to highlight some high-volume red-zone targets that just haven't broken the goal line yet. Similar to previous weeks, I'm providing a range of odds across this slate, so adjust your units accordingly. Things have gotten off to a nice start through the early going; let's keep it rolling here in Week 4.
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Best NFL Week 4 Anytime TD Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons
Marcus Mariota (QB – WSH) | +400
I'm running it back with a few of my anytime touchdown picks this week, starting with Washington's Week 4 starting quarterback, Marcus Mariota. We hit on Mariota last week at +260 odds, and I was shocked to see how much they increased for this week's game against Atlanta. Mariota was super effective rushing the ball last week, going for 40 yards on six carries and coming close to recording a second rushing touchdown.
Mariota has recorded two rushing scores in his three full games as a starter. As mentioned last week, the injury to Austin Ekeler only increases the chances that Mariota will get goal-line carries. Add in the fact that this is somewhat of a revenge game for Mariota, and the Falcons are fresh off surrendering 30 points in a game which also saw Carolina’s Bryce Young rush for a touchdown, and I find these odds to be way too high. Give me Mariota to score in back-to-back weeks in his return to Atlanta.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants
Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC) | +180
Chargers second-year wideout Ladd McConkey went from being the obvious No. 1 WR target monster in the offseason to the third man on the totem poll in terms of targets to Chargers receivers so far, due to the return of Keenan Allen and the breakout season for Quentin Johnston. I'm not all that worried about the target shares, though, as the Chargers’ offense has adapted a pretty pass-heavy offense with Justin Herbert currently leading the NFL in terms of pass yards per game and ranking in the top 10 in terms of total pass attempts.
We might even see those numbers tick up a bit as well, due to last week's injury to Najee Harris. The Chargers also have an A+ receiving matchup this week against a Giants defense that currently ranks third-worst in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. With a lot of the early-season attention going towards Allen and Johnston, I like McConkey to find a soft spot in the end zone for his first score of the season.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Elic Ayomanor (WR – TEN) | +440
We cashed on Titans rookie wide receiver Elic Ayomanor at +330 odds as a best bet last week, and I'm going right back to the well for him to score at +440 this week. Ayomanor has now found the end zone in consecutive weeks and seems to have a better connection with rookie quarterback Cam Ward than presumptive No. 1 WR Calvin Ridley. Ayomanor has three more receptions than Ridley on the young season, but more importantly, he has received three times the number of red-zone targets.
I hope the Texans view Ridley as the No. 1 WR for this matchup, so that he draws the primary assignment for Texans stud cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. I could see this game profiling very similar to Houston's Week 2 matchup against Tampa Bay, where rookie No. 2 WR Emeka Egbuka found the end zone while No. 1 WR Mike Evans was largely kept in check. I'll be backing Ayomanor whenever he's around this price point, so let's back him to find the end zone for the third straight week.
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
With a spread currently north of two touchdowns, this game figures to be one of the biggest laughers of the early season. The Bills hold the NFL's top offense in terms of total yardage and rushing yardage and rank in the top five in points scored per game, which figures to be a massive issue for a Saints defense conceding 30+ points per game. As a backup running back that also splits some work with running back Ty Johnson, usage stats aren't necessarily going to support this play, although Ray Davis did receive nine carries in Buffalo's Week 2 rout of the Jets.
With nearly all of the other Bills’ primary scoring options sitting around 2/1 odds or worse to score, I'll take a shot on Davis to get some work late if this game goes according to script. I don't hate a play on Johnson either, who will surely get some work in a blowout as well as some passing-down snaps in a normal game script. In a game that might get out of hand early, I'll be backing Davis to find paydirt to have something to root for in the second half of this matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Goedert (TE – DAL) | +360
Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert had a strong start to his 2025 campaign, reeling in seven receptions on seven targets in their opener against Dallas before missing their Week 2 game. He returned in Week 3 against the Rams, catching only one ball on two targets, but that one reception resulted in a 33-yard touchdown.
Godert will be up against a Buccaneers defense this week that has been pretty middle of the pack so far. With the struggles that this Eagles offense has had in the passing game this year, I'm anticipating Goedert to be a major factor in the quick passing game this week. I'll back Goedert at greater than 3/1 odds as one of the Eagles’ more reliable pass-catching options to find the end zone for a second consecutive week.
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
The odds for anytime touchdown scorers in this game are based on the perception of these two teams overall, seemingly ignoring just how dominant the Browns’ defense has been through three weeks. Cleveland leads the NFL in terms of both passing and rushing yards allowed per game, and ranks fourth overall in passing yards per game, yet five of the six lowest odds to score in this game come from the Detroit side.
That immediately turns my focus to the Browns, where I'm targeting wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to score his first touchdown of the season. Jeudy is receiving seven targets per game this season for a healthy 13.4 yards per reception, with catches of 25+ yards in two of Cleveland's first three games this year.
The trailing game script the Browns figure to be in should increase Jeudy's opportunities in this game, and the Lions are somewhat susceptible to giving up points as a bottom-10 scoring defense. This game will also be played indoors on a fast track at Ford Field. The Browns are going to have to put up multiple touchdowns if they have any chance of keeping pace with the dynamite Lions offense. Give me Jeudy to find the end zone as my anytime touchdown scorer for this game.
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR) | +175
Panthers Rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan has firmly established himself as the No. 1 WR in Carolina, currently averaging 4.7 receptions for 72 yards on nine targets per game. With the preseason injury to Jalen Coker, combined with the fact that his competition for targets is a Hunter Renfrow re-tread, a failed Xavier Legette experiment and nothing to speak of from the tight end position, it looks like McMillan will remain the top pass-catching option going forward.
While McMillan hasn't reached the end zone yet, he's averaging at least one red-zone target per game, and he came up just short on what would have been a long touchdown catch against the Falcons last Sunday. He figures to have a solid matchup this week against a Patriots defense that just isn't what it used to be, having surrendered 20+ points in each game as well as five total receiving touchdowns. Tetairoa is going to find the end zone eventually, and I want to get in on the ground floor while the odds are still appetizing.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers
*First-Team Touchdown Scorer: Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF) | +360
This was the hardest game for me to break down on this slate, so I'm getting a little bit niche with this pick, taking Christian McCaffrey to score the first touchdown for the 49ers in Week 4. I really don't know what to think about the Jaguars’ offense, whose perception seems to be getting worse and worse by the week, with whatever is going on with wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., and the reluctance to give wide receiver Travis Hunter a bigger role in the offense.
It looks like the 49ers will get quarterback Brock Purdy back this week, but who knows exactly how effective he'll be in his return from injury, and they'll still be without their biggest pass-catching weapon in tight end George Kittle. Instead, I'll take the Jaguars side completely out of this and just focus on the most reliable option in the 49ers offense - running back Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey is averaging 17.3 rushes per game and an insane 10.7 targets per game out of the backfield, including six red-zone targets. It's hard to imagine McCaffrey not scoring this week. I'm just taking it a step further to have him as the first 49ers player to find paydirt for some better odds.
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams
Tyler Warren (TE – IND) | +230
I whiffed on Colts rookie Tyler Warren as an anytime touchdown scorer pick in Week 2, but that's not stopping me from coming back to him here in Week 4. This Colts offense has been surprisingly electric through three weeks, ranking in the top four in terms of total yardage, passing yardage, rushing yardage and scoring. Warren leads Colts pass-catchers in terms of targets.
The real upper hand for Warren has been realized around the red zone, as he has received three targets inside the 20-yard line compared to one for Josh Downs and none for Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts will take on a Rams defense that just let the Eagles’ passing offense come to life, allowing receiving touchdowns to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. I love Warren to find the end zone for the first time in his NFL career in what figures to be one of the best games on the Week 4 slate.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
DeAndre Hopkins (WR – BAL) | +500
Two of the favorites to win the AFC find themselves in precarious situations, as both enter this week with a 1-2 record before a massive showdown at Arrowhead. I'm looking squarely at Ravens wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins as my anytime touchdown scorer for this matchup, primarily because his odds are essentially two times higher than tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Rashod Bateman. While Hopkins isn't necessarily receiving the target share he did early in his career, he's made the most of his opportunities.
Hopkins scored in Week 1 and Week 2, receiving only two targets in each of those games. He also recorded receptions of 29 and 41 yards, respectively, in those games, telling us that he's still got the ability to go deep. Hopkins doesn't need a crazy number of targets to get this done; he just needs an opportunity or two. The Ravens are the best in the league in terms of points per game despite their disappointing start. I love the value on Hopkins to add to that total at these odds on Sunday.
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders
Somewhat surprisingly, wide receiver Jakobi Myers is the Raiders’ leader in terms of targets, receptions and yards despite phenom tight end Brock Bowers and an incredible Week 3 performance from wide receiver Tre Tucker. This game has one of the highest totals on the board this week, and for good reason, as the Bears’ defense ranks in the bottom six in terms of total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed.
They've been especially bad defending wide receivers, as they have conceded the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including six touchdowns allowed, which is tied for the most in the NFL. Last week's four targets for Myers were an outlier compared to the double-digit targets he received in Weeks 1 and 2. I anticipate him to be a big part of the game plan on Sunday.
I initially looked towards Bowers for this pick, but after digging into just how bad Chicago has defended wide receivers, I had to go with Myers. He hasn't found the end zone yet this season, but I'm backing him to record his first touchdown this week.
