It has been a pretty decent season for betting on NFL underdogs. Through Week 3, underdogs are 12-36 straight up (SU) and 20-26-1 against the spread (ATS). Last season, underdogs won 28.3% of the time, so they are not far off pace from a year ago.
The following games are ones in which we think the underdog has a solid chance of pulling off an upset. Check out our top three NFL Week 4 underdog bets below.
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Best NFL Week 4 Underdog Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+164) | O/U 44.5
Dallas played a competitive game against the Eagles in Week 1. At the time, it seemed like a good win, but we now know that the Cowboys are not a good team. A late touchdown made the final score close versus the Chiefs, but it looks like the Chiefs may have lost their mojo. Last week, the Rams played a better game than the Eagles on both sides of the ball - just not on special teams.
As for the Buccaneers, they are not blowing teams out of the water, winning by three, one and two points. After letting the lead slip away in the fourth quarter last week against the Jets, they needed some late-game Baker Mayfield heroics to pull out the win.
The Eagles look like the Chiefs did last season; they are doing enough to stay in the game and finding a way to pull it out in the end. If they do that again, we'll have another close finish, and I'm good with taking the Bucs and the points. I wouldn't shy away from betting the Tampa Bay Moneyline necessarily, but taking the points is the better bet this week.
Picks: Buccaneers +3.5 (-115) & Buccaneers Moneyline (+164)
Tennessee Titans (+7) vs. Houston Texans (-395) | O/U 38.5
Houston should win this game, but not because their offense is better. But their defense should be able to lock down Cam Ward and keep the Titans from scoring much (if they score at all). However, all it would take to change the narrative is one or two big plays. The Texans’ defense has given up 10 passing plays of 20+ yards and one of 40+ yards.
Cam Ward has struggled so far, but he was drafted first overall for a reason. The talent is there, which means he could break out at any time. Against this Houston team, one or two big plays could put the Titans in position to score all they need to win or stay within a touchdown.
I have no faith that the Titans can pull off a win here, but I have even less faith that Houston can win by a touchdown.
Pick: Titans +7 (-105)
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-192) | O/U 49.5
We are only three games into the season, so it is a little too soon to think about going all in on Daniel Jones. But the critics are not giving him the credit he deserves for how well the Colts are playing. Factor in how well Lou Anarumo's defense has played, and you certainly have a team capable of keeping it close if not winning outright.
The Rams are playing well, but far from perfect. Should the Colts continue to play as well as they have, they could absolutely keep it close and maybe even pull off an upset.
Picks: Colts +3.5 (-105) & Colts Moneyline (+160)
