Sunday morning we have a special matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. Millions of dollars will be bet on this game. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look.
Falcons vs. Jaguars TD Scorer Prop Bets
All props are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Falcons First TD Scorer: Bijan Robinson (+260)
The former Longhorn superstar has been impressive this season, averaging over 5.4 yards per rushing attempt. Furthermore, Robinson leads the Falcons in receptions (14), targets (17), and target per route run rate (21.3%). Unfortunately, the rookie hasn't found the end zone since scoring Atlanta's first touchdown of the year in Week 1. Yet, that likely changes on Sunday against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has surrendered only one touchdown to running backs this season. Dameon Pierce scored the first touchdown for the Houston Texans last week against the Jaguars. However, they have only faced three sub-par rushing attacks, squaring off against Deon Jackson, the Kansas City Chiefs, and Pierce last week. After facing three weak rushing offenses this season, Jacksonville faces arguably the top rushing attack in the NFL on Sunday. Don't be surprised if Robinson scores twice in this game.
Jaguars First TD Scorer: Evan Engram (+800)
Last year, Engram scored four receiving touchdowns, the third-most on the team. However, he hasn't found the end zone this season. The veteran tight end has the third-most targets on the team, remaining a significant part of the offense. More importantly, the former Ole Miss star leads the Jaguars in receptions (18). Now Engram gets arguably his best matchup this year in Week 4.
The Falcons have given up two touchdowns to the position, the third-most in the NFL. More importantly, both touchdowns have been the first score for Atlanta's opponents. Sam LaPorta had a 45-yard touchdown last week against the Falcons. Hayden Hurst scored a four-yard touchdown in Week 1 against Atlanta. With Jacksonville's offense struggling, expect Trevor Lawrence to target Engram early in this contest to take advantage of his matchup.
Anytime TD Scorer: Christian Kirk (+170)
Kirk got off to a rocky start in Week 1, totaling one reception on three targets for nine receiving yards against the Indianapolis Colts while playing only 60% of the snaps. However, he has been much better over the past two weeks. The star wide receiver has played over 80% of the snaps in both contests, averaging 7.5 receptions on 10 targets for 82 receiving yards per game. More importantly, he had his first touchdown of the year last week after leading the Jaguars with eight scores in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have done well limiting outside receivers. A.J. Terrell has surrendered only four receptions this season. Unfortunately, that is not good news for Calvin Ridley. However, Kirk plays 70% of his snaps in the slot and has an appealing matchup against Dee Alford. The veteran slot cornerback has allowed 75% of the passes thrown at him to be completed this year. Furthermore, two of the three touchdowns Atlanta has given up to wide receivers this season have been by a slot receiver.
Anytime TD Scorer: Kyle Pitts (+245)
Am I dumb enough to bet on Pitts to score on Sunday? Yup. Should you do it too? Probably not, but what's the fun in playing it safe? The talented tight end leads the team in targets (17) and routes run (97). While it has led to only nine receptions for 100 receiving yards and zero touchdowns, Pitts has scored three touchdowns in 30 career games. However, his first career touchdown was in London. Maybe he can repeat that success this year.
Jacksonville gave up the 10th-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends in 2022. Therefore, it's no surprise to see them struggle with the position again this season. The Jaguars have surrendered two touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year, the third-most in the NFL. Despite giving up only 10 receptions to tight ends over the past two weeks, Jacksonville has surrendered the second-most touchdowns. Hopefully, Pitts can keep the trend going this week.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.