Last week was a great one for longshot bets. Rico Dowdle ran for 206 yards, the Tennessee Titans upset the Arizona Cardinals, and the Indianapolis Colts defeated the Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points. As I turn my attention to this week, I'm focused on Joe Flacco in a rematch with a team he's already faced this season, Kyren Williams in a great matchup, and the Sunday Night Football game between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.
Here are the best longshot bets of Week 6 of the NFL season.
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Best NFL Week 6 Longshot Bets
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyren Williams 120+ Rushing Yards (+554)
Williams is the NFL's sixth-leading rusher entering Week 6. He's yet to top 100 yards in a game, but he does have one 94-yard performance, and he's yet to rush for fewer than 65 yards in a contest. On Sunday, he takes on the Ravens' run defense, which is allowing 146.4 rushing yards per game, the fourth-most in the NFL.
With Lamar Jackson missing practice and trending toward not playing for the second consecutive week, the Rams are favored by 7.5. The Ravens just lost 44-10 to the Houston Texans, so it's safe to assume that without Jackson on the field, the Rams will be playing this entire game with the lead.
That means increased touches for Williams, a back who had at least 17 carries in each of his first three games, but has managed 14 or fewer in his last two. He's averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and against a defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry, if Williams gets over 20 carries, this number is well within reach.
Joe Flacco 3+ Interceptions (+1100)
In Week 3, Flacco led the Cleveland Browns to a victory over the Green Bay Packers. Now, in Week 6, he has the chance to lead the Cincinnati Bengals to a victory over the same team. Yet, instead of picking apart the Packers' defense, I expect the Packers to get revenge, as Flacco struggles mightily.
Flacco has thrown at least one interception in all four of his games this season. He's thrown two in two contests. The Packers only have two interceptions this season, but they're favored by two touchdowns in this game, so I expect Flacco to be throwing from start to finish. Considering the Bengals have allowed 15 sacks this season, I anticipate Flacco being under constant pressure, which will lead to bad decisions from him.
You could get Flacco to throw two interceptions for +300, which is a wager that definitely feels worth the risk. However, for a true longshot bet, him throwing three picks is the play.
Kansas City Chiefs Over 37.5 Points (+520)
The Lions haven't allowed more than 30 points in a game this season, but with a depleted secondary, I believe they're going to allow a season-high on Sunday night. The Chiefs' offense averaged just 20 points per game through the first three weeks, but Patrick Mahomes and company have scored at least 28 in back-to-back weeks.
While the Lions' defense is depleted, their offense is healthy and has scored at least 34 points in four consecutive games. I expect them to continue to score in the 30s this week, as they face a defense that just allowed 31 to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
With the Lions scoring at their usual rate, this is going to be a very high-scoring game. Mahomes has thrown for at least 270 yards in back-to-back weeks, and I don't see any reason for that trend to stop this week against a secondary without multiple key pieces. Look for the Chiefs to set a season-high in what could be the highest-scoring game of the year.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.