After a week with just seven one-score games, there are seven games with point spreads of 2.5 points or fewer this week. While some of those games won't matter much in the grand scheme of the regular season (I'm looking at you, Browns and Dolphins), other games, such as the Colts versus Chargers and Commanders versus Cowboys, could have huge impacts come late December. Below, I dive into four of the hardest games to pick this week.
Here are my top NFL Week 7 pick’em pool predictions.
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NFL Week 7 Pick’em Pool Predictions (2025)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Another week, another game in London. The Rams are favored in this game, and rightfully so. Their only two losses were an overtime defeat at the hands of a division rival and a seven-point loss to the Eagles, all thanks to a fourth-quarter implosion.
The Jaguars followed up their win over the Chiefs with a 20-12 loss to the Seahawks, as they allowed Sam Darnold to throw for 295 yards against them. The Jaguars are now allowing 256.3 passing yards per game, which is the third-most in the NFL. Even if Puka Nacua is out this week, the Rams still have the third-best passing attack in the league, and Matthew Stafford will be able to pick apart this defense with a depleted receiving corps.
Pick: Los Angeles Rams
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets
Last week, the Jets put together one of the worst offensive performances you will ever see, and yet, they still only lost by two points for the third time this season. While the offense was putrid, accumulating just 82 yards, the defense was impressive, holding the Broncos to just 246 yards.
The Panthers have won back-to-back games and three of their last four. A lot of their recent success has been thanks to Rico Dowdle, who has accumulated 473 yards in his last two games. Dowdle could be in line for another huge day, as the Jets are allowing 130 rushing yards per game.
Yet despite their poor run defense, I like the Jets in this game. This is a week-to-week league, as the Panthers showed earlier this season when they followed up a 30-0 win with a 42-13 loss. The Jets have been competitive in most of their games this season, and though Justin Fields has been inept at times, the Panthers are allowing 213.8 passing yards and 24.3 points per game. The Jets win a close one at home.
Pick: New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Colts are 5-1, but after allowing Jacoby Brissett to throw for 320 yards against them last week, I am a bit concerned about them in this matchup. The Chargers have the ninth-ranked passing offense, and the rushing attack is finally clicking with at least 140 yards in three consecutive games.
With Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor playing at a high level, the Colts have one of the most well-rounded offenses in the league. However, the Chargers are allowing the seventh-fewest yards per game this season. The pass defense ranks sixth in the league, and they're tied for the fifth-most interceptions in the league. This will be problematic for Jones, who has thrown three interceptions in the last three weeks.
The Chargers haven't looked good in their last three games, but this is still a team that beat Denver and Kansas City in the first three weeks of the year. I expect them to fluster Jones, force turnovers and ultimately outscore the NFL's highest-scoring offense.
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
With Brian Branch suspended for his role in Sunday night's postgame fight, the Lions' secondary is without three starters and numerous backups, as they get ready to take on Baker Mayfield. The problem for Mayfield and the Buccaneers' seventh-ranked passing attack is that they're also depleted with Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving out, Emeka Egbuka expected to miss time, and Mike Evans questionable after a hamstring injury.
Meanwhile, the Lions are healthy offensively, so if this becomes a shootout in Detroit, then there is no doubt the Lions have the advantage, even if Mayfield is playing better football than every other quarterback in the league.
The Buccaneers have won five games, but three of those victories have come on last-second field goals. They're allowing 25.2 points per game, which is bad news with the Lions' second-ranked scoring offense getting back at home after a frustrating loss. If the Buccaneers win this game, they're the class of the NFC, but I don't think this will be close.
Pick: Detroit Lions
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.