Last week was a gross one for player props. I didn’t like the menu, I said it at the top of last week’s article, and I almost feel lucky to have squeezed out a .500 juice-losing week.
This week’s player props menu isn’t that much more appealing than last week’s, but there are some plays I feel good about. Two of them are plays I couldn’t have fathomed liking a couple of months ago. If you had told me in late August that I’d be making these two bets, I would have looked at you as if you had three heads.
Here’s the recap from last week.
The wins: Joe Burrow over 285.5 passing yards, Saquon Barkley over 76.5 rushing yards, Christian Kirk over 49.5 receiving yards.
The losses: Aaron Rodgers over 234.5 passing yards, Romeo Doubs over 46.5 receiving yards, Chris Godwin over 64.5 receiving yards.
Let’s get to the selections for Week 8 …
Last week: 3-3
Season record: 28-19
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of early Thursday afternoon.
NFL Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions
Derek Carr OVER 255.5 passing yards
Carr will face a New Orleans defense that’s short on healthy cornerbacks. The Saints’ best cover man, Marshon Lattimore, missed Week 7 with an abdominal injury and hadn’t practiced this week as of Thursday. It seems unlikely he’ll play. CB Bradley Roby just landed on IR. Starting CB Paulson Adebo, missed Week 7 with a knee injury but practiced on Thursday and could be back. The New Orleans pass rush has generated the fifth-lowest pressure rate this season, so Carr could have time to stand in the pocket and wait for WRs Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins to get open against Saints backups.
P.J. Walker OVER 184.5 passing yards
I mentioned in the intro that there are two bets I can’t believe I’m making. This is one of them. An over on passing yardage for P.J. Walker? Yeah, and I feel pretty good about it. Walker threw for 177 yards last week on only 22 pass attempts against a good Tampa Bay defense. He threw so little because the Panthers led for nearly the entire game on the way to a comfortable 21-3 win. Walker will probably have to throw more this week with the Panthers 4.5-point underdogs against the Falcons in Atlanta. The Falcons’ secondary has been shredded by injuries. CB Casey Hayward is on IR. CB A.J. Terrell, the Falcons’ top cover man, injured his hamstring last week and isn’t likely to play. Safety Jaylinn Hawkins has been ruled out with a concussion. And it’s not as if the Falcons had an airtight pass defense before the wave of injuries hit. Atlanta has given up a league-high 2,146 passing yards.
Derrick Henry OVER 98.5 rushing yards
Henry has run for more than 100 yards in three straight games, averaging 23.3 carries over that stretch. The Texans had the worst run defense in the league last season, and it hasn’t gotten much better in 2022. Opposing RBs are averaging 135.3 rushing yards per game against the Texans and 5.2 yards per carry. Houston gave up 143 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Raiders RB Josh Jacobs last week. Expect Henry to steamroll Houston in Week 8.
Jakobi Meyers OVER 48.5 receiving yards
Meyers has cleared this number in 4-of-5 games this season. What’s nice is that Meyers no longer needs to rack up a bunch of receptions to hit a yardage total. His average depth of target this year is a career-high 11.5 yards. Meyers is averaging 13.7 yards per catch and a career-high 10.8 yards per target. Meyers also has matchups working in his favor this week. He lines up in the slot about half the time, so Meyers is mostly going to avoid the Jets’ very good outside CB duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed and will run most of his routes against Michael Carter, who’s allowing a 73% catch rate and 1.28 yards per route into his coverage.
Kyle Pitts UNDER 34.5 receiving yards
Here’s the other bet that would have seemed ludicrous to me two months ago. Pitts had over 1,000 receiving yards last year, and 34.5 yards is a low bar to clear. But Pitts has produced 25 or fewer receiving yards in 5-of-6 games. He hasn’t drawn more than five targets in a game since Week 3. The Falcons are averaging 21.4 pass attempts a game this season and just 18.2 pass attempts over their last five. Pitts will be facing a Carolina defense that has allowed the 10th fewest receiving yards to tight ends despite having gone up against David Njoku, Zach Ertz, George Kittle and Tyler Higbee.
Dawson Knox UNDER 33.5 receiving yards
Knox is averaging 4.0 targets and 29.6 receiving yards per game. He’ll be facing a Green Bay defense that has allowed only 197 receiving yards to opposing tight ends, the second-lowest total in the league. The Bills are double-digit home favorites against the Packers and might not have to throw that much.
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