Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below, I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone with a TD this week (excludes the Sunday night game).
Below are my results from the 2022 and 2023 seasons to date (assuming one unit per prop).
(Data per Fantasy Points Data | Odds as of Friday afternoon)
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| Season | Week | Units | ROI | Record |
| All Time | -9.9 | -5.8% | 97 – 167 | |
| 2022 | All | +8.8 | +5.2% | 68 – 102 |
| 2023 | 1 | -2.2 | -16.5% | 4 – 9 |
| 2023 | 2 | -1.9 | -15.4% | 4 – 8 |
| 2023 | 3 | -3.1 | -25.8% | 3 – 9 |
| 2023 | 4 | -11.0 | -100% | 0 – 11 |
| 2023 | 5 | +4.4 | +39.7% | 6 – 5 |
| 2023 | 6 | -4.8 | -39.8% | 4 – 8 |
| 2023 | 7 | -1.5 | -15.0% | 3 – 7 |
| 2023 | 8 | +1.3 | +10.0% | 5 – 8 |
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Best NFL Week 9 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
- Kyle Pitts
- Anytime TD Odds: +340 at FanDuel
The Falcons named Taylor Heinicke the starter in Week 9 after he took over for Ridder against the Titans last week. Heinicke should be an upgrade to the passing game for the Falcons but #1 WR Drake London did suffer a groin injury last week. He has been ruled out for Week 9, which should open up targets for Kyle Pitts. London leads the team in target share (23.3%) ahead of Pitts (18.8%), who is second in the offense. London also leads the team in red zone target share at 34.4%. It’ll be interesting to see who Heinicke turns to as his top target, but Pitts has a chance to establish himself this week.
Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens
- DK Metcalf
- Anytime TD Odds: +210 at FanDuel
Metcalf was back to leading the WR group after missing Week 7. He had a team high 14 targets and was the first read on 44.4% of Smith’s first read attempts. He also added four end zone targets, but it was the other three WR’s that each found the end zone last week. Metcalf’s TD total will eventually catchup up if this usage continues. The matchup is not great on the road in Baltimore, but the Ravens secondary did allow two receiving TD’s last week in Arizona. They had only allowed four all season prior to Week 8. Important to note, Metcalf sat out practice Thursday as he is still dealing with a lingering hip issue.
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers
- Jonathan Taylor
- Anytime TD Odds: -106 at Barstool
There was speculation that Taylor may have been injured on a run towards the end of the first half last week. Those rumors have been denied by HC Shane Steichen and Taylor himself this week when they met the media. It felt warranted since Taylor only received two touches in the second half, after totaling 94 yards in the first half. It seems the Colts are willing to continue with a split backfield, even though they gave Taylor a $14M per year extension. Regardless, both backs have been effective and they get a great matchup against the Panthers this week. Carolina has surrendered the most total TD’s to RB’s this season (13). I’ll lean toward Taylor over Moss after how last week played out.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
- Amari Cooper
- Anytime TD Odds: +150 at DraftKings
The Browns passing offense ranks second worst in the NFL in terms of passing TD’s, with only five on the year. That said, they are 9-point favorites at home against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed six TD’s to opposing WR’s over their last four games. Cooper has dominated targets (28%) the last three games with PJ Walker, but has no TD’s to show for it. With Watson returning this week, Cooper should continue to be the number one option. The last time Watson played a full game was in Week 3 against the Titans. Cooper caught 7 balls for 116 yards and a TD in that matchup.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
- Aaron Jones
- Anytime TD Odds: +175 at Barstool
Jones’ usage has been frustrating since his return in Week 7 from a hamstring injury that has derailed his season. He hasn’t had more than 11 touches in either game and has clearly been limited. The Packers are now 2-5, after losing their last four games, so it may be time to rely on their best offensive player. Lafleur has a history of not giving Jones a full workload and we shouldn’t expect this week to be any different. Regardless, he should be given more touches than the 11 he has seen in each of the last two games. The Packers are 3-point favorites at home against a Rams team who may not have Matthew Stafford. They should be able to control the ball should Stafford miss this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans
- Nico Collins
- Anytime TD Odds: +225 at PointsBet
Collins has been the top target for CJ Stroud through their first seven games. He leads the team in target share (22.1%) and with Robert Woods likely out again, the passing game should be concentrated this week. Collins started the year with three TD’s through the first four weeks, but he has not scored over the last three games. The Texans passing offense gets a good matchup against the Bucs, who have surrendered the most catches and yards per game to opposing WR’s over the last four weeks.
New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders
- Saquon Barkley
- Anytime TD Odds: +110 at DraftKings
The Giants will get starting QB Daniel Jones back this week. That should help create some more room for Saquon who has been the focal point of the offense over the last three weeks. During that span, Barkley leads the NFL in touches (30.3), which is five more than the next closest players (Gibbs and Kamara). The Raiders have cleaned house and former NFL LB Antonio Pierce will likely have they ready to play this week, but they have still allowed the third-most rushing yards to RB’s this season.
Washington Commanders at New England Patriots
- Demario Douglas
- Anytime TD Odds: +225 at PointsBet
With fellow WR Kendrick Bourne out for the year, rookie WR Demario Douglas will likely lead the group in targets moving forward. Douglas has actually led the group already over the last two weeks with 12 targets. While his size will work against him in the red zone, he has still drawn two end zone targets over the last two games. He should have a good opportunity to take advantage of the increased role against a Commanders defense who was already struggling against opposing WR’s and now lost two of their best pass rushers at the trade deadline.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
- Darnell Mooney
- Anytime TD Odds: +600 at Fanduel
The Bears have the second lowest implied team total (16.25) on the week and are 8.5-point underdogs on the road. Rookie QB Tyson Bagent will get his third start, a week after the magic wore off against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. That said, he wasn’t the main reason they lost and he has looked serviceable through two starts. There are long odds posted for Bears players for good reason, but I’m willing to take a shot on Mooney who is a near every down player. Mooney’s one catch last week went for 41 yards but should have been a 79-yard TD on the first play of the game. For some reason, he was whistled down, even though he was not touched. Regardless, Mooney is averaging 4.5 targets from Bagent in his two starts, which is enough to take a chance at +600.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
- Dak Prescott
- Anytime TD Odds: +750 at PointsBet
The Cowboys offense has started to click the last two games, averaging 31.5 ppg. This coincides with Prescott using his legs more often than he had done during the first five games. He has rushed 11 times for 59 yards and a TD over the last two games. While banking on QB rushing TD’s is risky, his odds to score on the ground are too enticing. The matchup against the Eagles should be high scoring. The total sits at 47 points, which is the third highest of the week. This should lead to more red zone opportunities for Dak to rush one in at long odds.
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