Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 9 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| MIN | ATL | -4.5 | -4 | 0.5 | 37.5 | 37 | -0.5 |
| SEA | BAL | -5.5 | -6 | -0.5 | 43 | 44 | 1 |
| IND | CAR | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 45.5 | 44 | -1.5 |
| BUF | CIN | -2 | -2 | 0 | 47.5 | 49.5 | 2 |
| ARI | CLE | -7 | -7.5 | -0.5 | 40 | 37.5 | -2.5 |
| LAR | GB | -2 | -3 | -1 | 40 | 38.5 | -1.5 |
| TB | HOU | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 38.5 | 40 | 1.5 |
| MIA | KC | -2.5 | -2 | 0.5 | 51 | 51 | 0 |
| NYG | LV | -3 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 38.5 | 37 | -1.5 |
| WAS | NE | -2 | -3 | -1 | 40.5 | 41 | 0.5 |
| CHI | NO | -6.5 | -8.5 | -2 | 41 | 41 | 0 |
| LAC | NYJ | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 42 | 40 | -2 |
| DAL | PHI | -3 | -3 | 0 | 46.5 | 47 | 0.5 |
| TEN | PIT | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 36.5 | 37 | 0.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 9 Spread Movement Analysis
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints: -6.5 ?' -8.5
The line has extended to 8.5 points in the Saints’ favor. The Bears rolled over against the Chargers last Sunday night and there have been more questionable occurrences happening in the building this week. For the second time this season, they have had to let go of a position coach. This week it was the RB coach after the defensive coordinator “resigned” earlier this year. Meanwhile, GM Ryan Poles made a questionable move at the deadline, trading a high second-round pick for Montez Sweat. This move will not move the needle this season for the 2-6 Bears and they have to trot out D2 rookie QB Tyson Bagent for the third week in a row.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets: +1.5 ?' +3.5
The Chargers were served a get-right game against the Bears last week and they took advantage in a 30-13 blowout. The 1.5-point opening line was questionable when you consider the caliber of the two QBs in this game. At 3-4, this is a crucial game for the Chargers and it was not like the Jets looked tough to beat last week in their 13-10 OT win over the Giants.
NFL Week 9 Total Movement Analysis
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns: 40 ?' 37.5
The 2.5-point drop could be related to the starting QB’s in this matchup. It remains to be seen who will start on both sides but the line drop suggests it will be rookie QB Clayton Tune for the Cardinals and PJ Walker for the Browns. I wouldn’t expect many TDs if that is the case, but we will see if Deshaun Watson is able to suit up. Regardless, it will be hard for Tune to sustain drives against a Cleveland defense that is allowing the lowest numer of passing yards per game (182.6) this season.
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals: 47.5 ?' 49.5
Although Josh Allen did not practice Wednesday, the line would indicate it was for precautionary reasons only. The Bills are averaging nearly 28 ppg this season, meanwhile, the Bengals have overcome some early struggles and are averaging 27.3 ppg over their last three weeks. This should be an exciting rematch of the Divisional Round last season.
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