The NFL Wild Card Weekend of the NFL playoffs is here, and to close it out, the Pittsburgh Steelers are hosting the Houston Texans.
The Steelers are 10-7 and come into the playoffs after beating the Baltimore Ravens 26-24 in Week 18 thanks to a missed 44-yard field goal by Ravens rookie kicker Tyler Loop. As for the Texans, they’re 12-5 and coming off a win over the Indianapolis Colts. They just missed out on winning the AFC South, losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Below is a three-leg NFL Wild Card Weekend same game parlay (SGP), including a spread pick and two props. Let’s check it out.
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NFL Wild Card Weekend Same Game Parlay: Texans vs. Steelers
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated
- Leg #1: Steelers +3 (-118)
- Leg #2: Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-108)
- Leg #3: Kenneth Gainwell 5+ Receptions (-158)
Leg #1: Steelers +3 (-118)
Heading into Wild Card Weekend, outside of maybe the Los Angeles Rams-Carolina Panthers matchup, the one game that’s most discussed as an easy blowout by the general public is this one. I’m not so sure.
Yes, the Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL, allowing 279.1 yards per game (second) and recording 262 quarterback pressures (fourth) this season.
However, there’s one thing Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers does well: Get the ball out quickly. His average time to throw is 2.56 seconds, and the Texans have allowed a completion rate just under 70% along with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions against passes that are delivered in 2.56 seconds or fewer.
The Steelers are second in yards after the catch this season, so the game plan will be to get the ball out quickly on screen passes, swing passes and other quick throws, and hope their pass-catchers can out-maneuver Texans defenders.
Additionally, both teams are +12 or better in turnover differential. This is going to be a much closer game than you may expect.
Leg #2: Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-108)
A lot of this ties into what was said above, but Aaron Rodgers’ ability to get the ball out quickly will lead to a lot of easy completions. He’s completed 21+ passes in five straight games and in 10 out of 16 games this season.
Furthermore, 22.9% of Rodgers’ attempts came from behind the line of scrimmage, and 45% from between 0-9 yards downfield. To go even further, Rodgers is fourth in completions on passes with 0-3 to air yards. His whole game facilitates racking up easy completions.
Leg #3: Kenneth Gainwell 5+ Receptions (-158)
In Week 18, Gainwell led the Steelers in target share (20.5%), catching eight passes on nine targets for 64 yards.
Of course, wide receiver DK Metcalf will be back from suspension this week. However, since Week 10, in situations where Metcalf is on the field, Gainwell still boasts a 19% target share, catching 30 of his 36 targets.
Again, Rodgers is going to get the ball out quickly, and Gainwell will be a top target of his in those instances.
Parlay Odds: +365
