We’ve got a four-pack of action in the NHL on Friday night. However, there’s only one game I truly like on this small board. Here’s my breakdown of my best bet for Friday night, as well as some quick thoughts on the other three games on the slate.
Friday’s NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Vegas Golden Knights (-137) at Seattle Kraken (+114) | O/U 6.5 (+110/-134)
Vegas’ 9-3-1 record is a bit misleading, as the Golden Knights have been rather average from an analytics standpoint. Vegas ranks just 24th in expected goals for percentage (XFG%) on 5-on-5 play, while Seattle isn’t far behind at 26th.
What’s propelled the Golden Knights to this hot start has been hot shooting, as the Knights are lighting the lamp on 13% of their shots at even strength. Vegas has also scored on 33% of its power plays in this young season, good for third in the league.
While the Kraken penalty kill has been below average, the Golden Knights are riding high on metrics that could regress at any moment.
The Kraken return home after a long and lousy road trip in during which they dropped their last four games, while Vegas will hit the road for the second time in three nights.
I do think we’ll get Joey Daccord in net for the Kraken, which is critical. Daccord ranks 10th in MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected metric, while backup Philipp Grubauer ranks 48th and is coming off a bad showing against the Avalanche.
For Vegas, I’d expect to see Ilya Samsonov between the pipes. While Samsonov has gotten off to a decent start to the 2024 season, he did allow six goals in his last appearance.
I like the home underdog to break its losing streak against a team riding a little too high. I also don’t mind a play on the under, as neither team has generated a ton of scoring chances during the first month of the season, meaning we could be in store for a lower-variance game.
Picks: Kraken (+114) & Under 6.5 Goals (-134)
Detroit Red Wings (+150) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-182) | O/U 6.5 (+114/-145)
All analytics point to the Leafs in this game, but I just don’t feel comfortable laying such a big number on Toronto with Auston Matthews confirmed out.
Pick: I’d back Toronto Moneyline (-182) - only if you have to place a bet.
Pittsburgh Penguins (+152) at Washington Capitals (-184) | O/U 6.5 (-106/-114)
The Capitals have been one of the league’s brightest surprises to begin the season, while Pittsburgh has been a bit of a disaster. However, it’s clear the market has caught up to both of these teams based on this line. I like the Caps, but Washington isn’t a team I love to back as a massive favorite.
Pittsburgh’s back end is a nightmare, but the Pens could be due for some better results, as they’re shooting just 5.7% during 5-on-5 play.
Pick: Pass (No bet)
Minnesota Wild (-205) at Anaheim Ducks (+168) | O/U 5.5 (-134/+110)
The Wild are a team I’m looking to fade in general, but I won’t take a shot tonight. The Ducks are in horrendous form and are basically only in games because of goaltender Lukas Dostal, who leads the league in goals saved above expected.
That said, I’m not sure we’ll even see Dostal between the pipes, as he’s played in Anaheim’s last four games.
Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (+110) - only if Dostal is playing.
