We’ve got five games to kick off December, and here’s where I’m looking tonight.
Monday’s NHL Best Bets & Picks
Winnipeg Jets (+104) @ Buffalo Sabres (-108)
Winnipeg and Buffalo are more similar than you think. The Jets have a 13-11 record and are without last year’s Hart and Vezina Awards winner, Connor Hellebuyck, the loss of whom has turned them into something of an OVER machine. Meanwhile, the Sabres are 10-11-4, allow the sixth-most goals in the NHL, and have gone UNDER in their last four games. Winnipeg is basically the same team on the road as at home, whereas Buffalo is significantly better at home, getting 18 of its 24 points there and sitting at +4 versus -16 away. Additionally, both teams have struggled to score. Over their last 10 games, the Jets are averaging 3.0 GF, and the Sabres are averaging 2.6 GF over their previous 9, with one 9-3 win against Chicago as the outlier in the 10th game.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will start in net for Buffalo. In six starts this season, he is 3-3 with an .891 save percentage and a 2.73 GAA. Eric Comrie is expected for Winnipeg, with a 5-4 record, an .898 save percentage, and a 2.91 GAA.
With such a dominant home record, give me Buffalo on the ML, and I think the puck line is also in play this evening.
Pick: Buffalo -108
Lean: Buffalo -1.5 (+230)
Simon Nemec Over 0.5 Points (+145)
In 25 games this season, Nemec has six goals and nine assists while averaging 19:36 of ice time. He has picked up a point in three of his last five games and gets to face the Blue Jackets tonight. Columbus gives up over 30 shots per game, and New Jersey averages 29.4. Additionally, the game is on the Devils’ home ice, where they are 9-1 with a +10 goal differential. There should be plenty of points to go around, and Nemec is likely to be part of that barrage.
Sidney Crosby + Will Smith Point Parlay (+155)
Sidney Crosby has a point in six of his last 10, and two points in each of his previous three games. He also enjoys playing the Flyers. In 91 games, he has 57 goals and 78 assists, and has six points in his last three H2H matchups. Meanwhile, Will Smith has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of Macklin Celebrini’s breakout campaign. Smith has eight points in his previous 10 games and has three over the last two matchups against Utah this season. If you can find Celebrini over 0.5 points and pair it with Crosby, you can still get plus money, but many books have his line at 1.5. I’m totally fine going with his sidekick for the extra boost.
Favorite Goalie Plays
Our four- and five-star UNDER bets on goalie saves are up 18.35 units this season, a 17.99% ROI. Here are today’s best bets:
| Goalie | Matchup | Line | Odds |
| Dan Vladar | PIT @ PHI | 22.5 | -130 |
| Jordan Binnington | ANA @ STL | 23.5 | -110 |
Favorite SOG Plays
So far this season, betting the UNDER on Shots on Goal rated five stars in our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet is up 6.66 units. In 2024, this particular bet was up 54.98 units. Here are today’s top five-star under bets.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Odds |
| Barrett Hayton | UTA @ SJ | 1.5 | +130 |
| Beckett Sennecke | ANA @ STL | 1.5 | +105 |
For more information about hockey betting, check out our informative articles below.
- The Top 5 Bet Types for Beginner NHL Bettors
- How To Bet NHL Player Props: A Beginner’s Guide
- What is the Puck Line?
- Puck Line Betting Strategy
- Advanced Stats to Improve Your Odds
