NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (12/8)

Kicking off our week with a five-game slate. Here are my favorite bets.

Our NHL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily projections >>

Monday’s NHL Best Bets & Picks

Tampa Bay Lightning (-123) @ Toronto Maple Leafs (+123)

Tonight features an Eastern Conference showdown between the Atlantic Division leader, the Lightning, and the underperforming Maple Leafs. It’s also the battle of backup goalies, with Jonas Johansson and Dennis Hildeby thrown into action due to injuries. Both teams have similar offensive firepower, with the primary difference being Tampa’s defense, which allows a mere 2.61 goals to opponents. Johansson and Hildeby have done well in their roles; Johansson is 5-4 with an .896 save percentage and 2.85 GAA, while Hildeby is 1-2-2 with a shiny .927 save percentage and 2.51 GAA. The UNDER feels like a paradoxical choice in a game featuring Nikita Kucherov and Auston Matthews, but Toronto has gone that way in seven of its last 10 games, and Tampa in half. At plus money, let’s do it.

Pick: Under 6.5 (+104)

Minnesota Wild (-128) @ Seattle Kraken (+127)

I think these are my two favorite teams to bet the UNDER on at this point. Both teams have been excellent defensively, allowing under 3.00 GA/G, while struggling to put points on the board themselves. The Kraken score the second-fewest per game at 2.54, and the Wild sit just above them at 2.69. Philipp Grubauer is scheduled to start for the home team; aside from a shellacking in Edmonton over the weekend, the 34-year-old has been steady, collecting four wins in four starts with a 2.63 GAA. Filip Gustavsson is the projected goalie for the Wild; he is the lesser of Minnesota’s dynamic duo, but still carries a .905 save percentage and 2.76 GAA. I don’t see many paths to get to six total goals in this one.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-109)

Mikael Backlund Over 0.5 Points (+130)

Nobody has bigger home/road splits in the NHL than the Buffalo Sabres. When they’re on home ice, they are better in every facet of the game by leaps and bounds. Outside the city limits of Buffalo, however, they are downright terrible, going 2-8-2 with a -22 goal differential. The Flames are a close second with very similar home/road splits… but they are the ones on home ice tonight.

Mikael Backlund nabbing a point is the top play on our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, with a +35% EV. If the only thing stopping him from hitting this bet is the Sabres’ porous defense? Take it and run.

Favorite Goalie Plays

Our four- and five-star UNDER bets on goalie saves are up 19.95 units this season, a 15.96% ROI. Here are today’s best bets:

Favorite SOG Plays

So far this season, bets on the UNDER on Shots on Goal rated 3 to 5 stars are up 38.8 units. Here are the best options for Monday.

For more information about hockey betting, check out our informative articles below.

• The Top 5 Bet Types for Beginner NHL Bettors
• How To Bet NHL Player Props: A Beginner’s Guide
• What is the Puck Line?
• Puck Line Betting Strategy
• Advanced Stats to Improve Your Odds