The Stanley Cup playoffs resume on Monday night, with the league rolling out a four-game first-round schedule. I've got you covered from a sports betting angle. Below, I'll break down all four games and provide you with my top plays on the ice. Here are my favorite NHL picks for Monday, April 20th.
Monday's Best NHL Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Philadelphia Flyers (+125) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) | O/U 6.0 (-118/-102)
The Flyers (1-0) picked up the series-opening victory over the Penguins (0-1) on Saturday, winning 3-2 on the road. Game 2 is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA.
I'll be on the over in tonight's Flyers-Penguins game. We should see a big bounce-back performance from the Penguins, and I think their offense finds a groove and powers the way. Pittsburgh led the NHL in scoring over the final 10 games, averaging 4.6 goals per game. They were also first in shooting rate (19.01%) during the 10-game stretch.
Goals are always plentiful when these rivals link up, as the over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh. The Penguins are also on a 16-4 run to the over in their last 20 games overall. I still don't trust their goaltending. We saw the same old Stuart Skinner on Saturday, posting an .850 SV% and allowing three goals in the opener. He'll be trying to slow down a Flyers squad that closed the season ranked second in high-danger shots on goal (47) over the final 10 games. I like the over, especially at this deflated line of six.
Bet: Over 6.0 Goals (-118)
Ottawa Senators (+125) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-150) | O/U 6.0 (-110/-110)
The Hurricanes (1-0) made a surprising move and started Frederik Andersen in net against the Senators (0-1) on Saturday, but it proved to be wise as the 36-year-old goaltender posted a shutout in the 2-0 victory. Puck drop for Game 2 is tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC.
I'll play the under in this game. These were two of the best defensive teams this season when it came to the underlying metrics. Ottawa ranked first in high-danger shots on goal allowed (225), while Carolina was ninth (262). As for expected goals against per 60 minutes, the clubs ranked first (2.67) and fifth (2.82), respectively. Both teams are 4-1 to the under in their last five outings, while the under in the head-to-head series is 13-7 in the last 20 meetings.
I went back and looked at the Hurricanes' postseason game logs, and they've seen six or fewer goals in 10 of their last 16 first-round games. It's not an overpowering trend, but it does speak to the way they control the puck and keep games low-scoring against inferior opponents. I think we see more of the same in this series against an inexperienced Senators side. Give me the under.
Bet: Under 6.0 Goals (-110)
Minnesota Wild (+115) vs. Dallas Stars (-135) | O/U 6.0 (-105/-115)
The one blowout that we've seen this postseason came on Saturday when the Wild (1-0) smashed the Stars (0-1) 6-1. The Central Division foes are back at it tonight, and this contest is slated for 9:30 p.m. ET from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.
I'll lock in the under in Game 2. If you haven't already, it may be time to buy some Jesper Wallstedt stock. The Minnesota netminder has been lights out recently. Over the final 10 games of the regular season, he posted a 1.98 GAA and 2.57 xGAA. His 5.4 goals saved above expected ranked seventh-best during that stretch.
Furthermore, these were two of the best defensive teams in the NHL this season. The Stars ranked second in team GAA (2.66), while the Wild were fourth (2.81). Look for Jake Oettinger to rebound as well. He was 20-5-4 at home this year, improving his GAA and SV% to 2.50 and .902, respectively, at American Airlines Center. I think Game 1 was a bit of an anomaly with all of the goals. These division rivals should settle in and put the clamps on tonight.
Bet: Under 6.0 Goals (-115)
Anaheim Ducks (+145) vs. Edmonton Oilers (-180) | O/U 6.5 (-145/+110)
This series between the Ducks (0-0) and the Oilers (0-0) is the only one that hasn't started yet. In terms of the betting odds, Edmonton is a sizable -235 favorite to advance to the second round, while Anaheim comes back at +195 to knock off the back-to-back Western Conference champs. Puck drop for Game 1 is tonight at 10:00 p.m. ET from Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.
I've seen a lot of people touting the Ducks as live underdogs to win this series against the Oilers. I just can't buy it. Edmonton is a veteran squad that has been in this position before. They're also likely to see the return of Leon Draisaitl to the lineup. He and Connor McDavid should have no issues cruising past the inexperienced Ducks in the first round.
Edmonton has owned Anaheim in this head-to-head series, winning six of the last seven meetings in Alberta. They're 13-5 straight up (SU) in the last 18 meetings overall. Factor in that the Ducks finished the season on an abysmal 2-6-2 run, and I don't see them magically turning it around in a hostile environment. Oh, and Anaheim ranked 26th in GAA (4.03) and last in SV% (.832) during the closing 10 games. Good luck trying to stop two of the top five forwards in the NHL. I'll lay the juice and back the Oilers at home in Game 1.
Bet: Oilers Moneyline (-180)
