The Vegas Golden Knights have erased back-to-back multi-goal deficits, securing wins and earning a 3-0 series lead over the Presidents' Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche. The Knights are -1400 favorites to win the Western Conference, while the Avs sit at +800 to win four straight games and advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
Game 4 takes place tonight in Sin City, and I've got you covered if you're looking to get some skin in the game. Below, I'll touch on the odds, key trends, and metrics, as well as lay out my argument for where I'm placing my money on this game. Here's my favorite bet for Game 4 of the Western Conference Final between the Avalanche and Golden Knights.
Puck drop is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
Tuesday's NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)
Colorado Avalanche (-115) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-105) | O/U 6.0 (-120/+100)
After being sizable underdogs in the first three games of the series, the sports betting market is finally giving the Golden Knights some respect. Although, even with Game 4 being priced as a pick 'em, the Avalanche are still slim -115 favorites. As for the total, it's hovering in the 6.0- to 6.5-goal range.
I'm locking in a ticket on the Over while there are 6.0s in the market. In the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the teams, Vegas is 6-1-3 and the teams are averaging a combined 6.70 goals per contest. The Over has cashed in five of the last six meetings between the clubs when the game is in Las Vegas. Colorado is also on a 7-3 run to the Over in its last 10 games overall.
The biggest x-factor for me in playing the Over is that Cale Makar is active again. Despite having an injury issue, the Norris Trophy finalist amassed 27:14 TOI in Game 3. At a line of 6.0 goals, Makar's last eight games are 5-0-3 to the Over. This guy's an absolute gamechanger offensively, even if he's not 100% healthy.
These have also been the top two offenses in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. During all situations, the Golden Knights lead the league in scoring (3.54 goals per 60 minutes), while the Avalanche are right behind them in second (3.53). The teams are first (69) and fifth (51) in high-danger shots on goal this postseason.
Factor in that Colorado is on the brink of elimination, so this game could get wacky towards the end with pulling the goalie in unusual situations. I expect these juggernaut offenses to find success against their opposing mid-tier netminders. 4-2 feels like the floor to me. Let's ride with the Over.
Pick: Over 6.0 Goals (-118)
