The Montreal Canadiens coughed up a two-goal first-period lead in Game 6 on Saturday, ultimately giving up seven straight goals in an 8-3 defeat to the Buffalo Sabres. The series is now tied at three games apiece, as it shifts back to Buffalo for a colossal do-or-die Game 7 on Monday. I've got you covered if you're looking to get some skin in the game tonight. Below, I'll touch on the odds, trends and key metrics for Game 7, as well as dive into where I'm laying my money on the ice tonight with my top NHL picks.
Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY.
Monday's Best NHL Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of Hard Rock Bet)
Montreal Canadiens (+100) vs. Buffalo Sabres (-120) | O/U 5.5 (+100/-120)
It's no surprise to see Game 7 priced in the pick’em range, with the Sabres being the slightest of favorites at -120 on the Moneyline. What is shocking is seeing a total of 5.5, as five of the six games in this series have produced at least six goals. The opening six games averaged 7.5 goals per contest.
I'm looking to pick an outright winner in Game 7 tonight, and I'm riding with the Sabres at -120. The KeyBank Center is going to be rocking on Monday, and the Buffalo faithful saw their team go 26-10-5 at home during the regular season. We have to factor in the home-ice edge in our analysis for this game.
Additionally, there has been a massive momentum shift in favor of the Sabres. Buffalo rattled off seven consecutive goals in their Game 6 rout. They received scoring contributions up and down the roster, with superstar Rasmus Dahlin racking up five points (one goal and four assists) in the win.
We also saw Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen come on in relief in net, going a perfect 18-for-18 in the comeback victory. Meanwhile, Jakub Dobes posted an .818 SV% before getting pulled late in the third period. He should start tonight, but I think it's fair to question how he'll fare coming off that abysmal performance.
It's worth noting that the Sabres have been the third-best team in the postseason in terms of xGoals% (54.76%), while the Canadiens are ninth (48.31%). During 5-on-5 play specifically, the Habs dip to 12th at 47.2%.
Between the home-ice edge and the momentum shift, I have to back the Sabres in Game 7.
Bet: Sabres Moneyline (-120)
