The Hurricanes and the Avalanche have already punched their tickets to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, sweeping the Senators and Kings, respectively, in four games. There are two more first-round contests on Monday, including the Flyers trying to finish off the Penguins, and the Mammoth hoping to take a 3-1 series lead over the Golden Knights. I've got you covered if you're looking to get some skin in the game tonight. Below, I'll dive into each contest, breaking down the odds, key metrics, and my favorite wagers. Here are my top NHL picks and bets for Monday, April 27th’s game Flyers vs. Penguins.
Monday's NHL Picks: Flyers vs. Penguins
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Flyers (+114) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-135) | O/U 5.5 (-125/+105)
The Penguins (1-3) were able to avoid the brooms Saturday night, taking down the Flyers (3-1) 4-2 and forcing a fifth game. Pittsburgh is still a +475 longshot to complete the comeback and advance to the second round (PHI: -650 to advance). Puck drop is Game 5 is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA.
I want to back Pittsburgh in this spot, but I also have no interest in laying juice with them in their current form. Instead, I think the best way to bet on this game is to take the Over. The Penguins are on a 14-6 run to the Over in their last 20 games, and they've also gone 8-4 to the Over in their last 12 home games. The Over has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between these two teams when the game is played in the Steel City.
Ultimately, I don't trust Pittsburgh's goaltending. They turned to Arturs Silovs in Game 4, and he was serviceable, making 28 saves on 30 shots against (.933 SV%). However, he was far from elite during the regular season, posting a 3.07 GAA (44th) and a .888 SV% (43rd). Silovs has conceded 3+ goals in five of his last eight outings.
Finally, it's worth noting that the underlying numbers support the offenses so far in the playoffs. The Flyers enter the new week with an expected goals per 60 minutes mark of 3.25, while the Penguins are at 2.75. The teams are third (17) and sixth (13), respectively, in high-danger shots on goal in the postseason. With a low total of 5.5, it appears the best way to bet this one is to play the Over.
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-125)
