NHL Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (May 17)

Friday gives us a two-pack of pivotal playoff matchups, as the Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars look to close out their respective series against the Boston Bruins and Colorado Avalanche. Here’s a breakdown of both games, plus my favorite bets.

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Friday’s Best NHL Picks

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Florida Panthers (-148) at Boston Bruins (+124) | O/U: 5.5 (+110/-130)

The Bruins staved off elimination with a suppressive effort on the road in Game 5. Missing Brad Marchand, the Bruins limited Florida’s Grade A opportunities while Jeremy Swayman thwarted all but one of Florida’s 29 shots in a 2-1 win.

While Boston was a deserving winner in Game 5, I question whether they’ll be able to overcome Florida’s depth in Game 6, even at home. The Panthers have generally been the better team in the shot attempt and scoring chance department. And with Marchand being a game-time decision, it appears he’ll likely not be 100% if he even gives it a go Friday night.

Ultimately, I suspect Florida’s Game 5 loss was more a result of a disappointing effort on the power play. A unit that’s scored six times in this series went 0-for-4 in Game 5. And while power play performance can vary, I find it hard to see Florida’s top scorers coming up short if they get another four opportunities in this one.

I like Florida to close out the Bruins and don’t mind a play on the under, as both Swayman and Sergei Bobrovsky are in sharp form.

Bets: Panthers Moneyline (-148) & Game Total Under 5.5 Goals (-130)

Dallas Stars (-102) at Colorado Avalanche (-118) | O/U: 6 (-118/-102)

This has been a bizarre series to sort out. Colorado won Game 1 on the road, then dropped three straight, then kept the series alive when it seemed like all hope was lost following the suspension of their top scorer Valeri Nichushkin. The analytics make this series even more puzzling, as Colorado has been the better team during 5-on-5 play.

I do ultimately think the game will come down to the goaltenders. Dallas’ Jake Oettinger has been the steadier netminder throughout the entire playoffs, but he was miserable in Game 5, posting a -1.63 goals saved above expected. On the flip side, Alexander Georgiev has been pretty unreliable during the postseason, but was solid in Game 5, putting up a goals saved above expected number of 0.86, indicating he was above average.

While Colorado’s big guns - Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar - are good enough to steal a game, I will opt to trust Dallas’ depth and the more reliable goaltender. Oettinger tends to bounce back from bad playoff performances. I trust he’ll regain his form here. I like Dallas as a dog.

Bet: Stars Moneyline (Dallas -102)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: