The Vegas Golden Knights secured their position in the Stanley Cup Final last night, beating the Colorado Avalanche 2-1 and ultimately sweeping the series 4-0. We shift back to the Eastern Conference Final tonight, where the Carolina Hurricanes (2-1) are -142 Moneyline favorites to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Montreal Canadiens (1-2). Puck drop is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC. I've got you covered if you're looking to get involved in Wednesday's Game 4 in the Great White North. Below, I'll lay out my betting analysis, diving into the key trends and metrics for the contest. Here are my favorite NHL picks for tonight.
Wednesday’s Best NHL Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Carolina Hurricanes (-142) vs. Montreal Canadiens (+120) | O/U 5.5 (-118/-102)
The Hurricanes closed around -150 Moneyline favorites in Game 3, so we're sitting in a similar price range with Rod Brind'Amour's squad priced at -142 tonight. The Habs come back at +120 to even up the series. The total for Game 4 is just 5.5 goals, juiced to the over.
Just like in Monday's article, the angle that I'm looking at is playing the Hurricanes at a deflated price on the road. Carolina was -200 and -205 in the opening games in Raleigh, so we're still getting nearly a 60-cent discount on the top-seeded Eastern Conference club.
The Bell Centre hasn't been kind to Montreal this postseason, as the Canadiens are just 2-3-2 in home games. This includes dropping three straight home contests. Meanwhile, the venue hasn't really mattered at all for the Hurricanes, since they're a dominant 10-1-0 overall this postseason, and 5-0-0 on the road.
What was interesting, but not necessarily surprising, about Game 3 was that the Hurricanes limited the Canadiens to only 13 shots on goal. I continue to point out that Montreal has struggled to produce during 5-on-5 play in the playoffs. They're now the 14th-best 5-on-5 team this postseason in xGoals% (45.36%). The Hurricanes are first (57.1%). Carolina is simply imposing their will on teams this year.
Factor in that the Hurricanes boast the second-best penalty-killing group (93.48%) in the playoffs, and I don't see the Habs finding much offensive success. With Frederik Andersen (1.56 GAA, .923 SV%) playing at an elite level, the Hurricanes will grind out another low-scoring victory. Give me Carolina at this relatively low price on the road.
Bet: Hurricanes Moneyline (-142)
