The Avalanche punched their ticket to the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday, completing an epic three-goal comeback and ultimately beating the Wild 4-3 in overtime. The Stanley Cup playoffs continue on Thursday, with two high-leverage games on the docket. Below, I'll dive into both contests from a sports betting perspective, covering odds, key metrics and important trends. I'll also provide my favorite bet in each game. Here are my top NHL picks and predictions for Thursday, May 14th.
Thursday’s Best NHL Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Montreal Canadiens (+100) vs. Buffalo Sabres (-120) | O/U 6.0 (-105/-115)
The Canadiens-Sabres series shifts back to western New York, tied at two games apiece. Buffalo won 3-2 in Montreal on Tuesday, and it was Zach Benson's game-winning power-play goal in the third period that ultimately got the job done. Puck drop for Game 5 is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY.
This series is truly a toss-up, so I think it's best to ride with the even-money payout that comes with the Canadiens in this spot. For starters, Montreal has dominated this head-to-head series over the past couple of years, going 8-4 straight up (SU) in their last 12 meetings with Buffalo. They're also an impressive 8-2 SU in their last 10 trips to Buffalo.
The biggest factor in this series - and for Montreal as a whole in the playoffs - has been their goaltending. Jakub Dobes is on a spectacular run, going just 6-5-0, but bringing in a 2.22 GAA and a .914 SV%. His 7.6 goals saved above expected is the third-best mark in the playoffs.
Both teams have the firepower up front, but with Dobes playing out of his mind, I think it's worth backing him and the Canadiens.
Bet: Canadiens Moneyline (+100)
Vegas Golden Knights (-110) vs. Anaheim Ducks (-110) | O/U 6.0 (-120/+100)
The Golden Knights (3-2) are looking to bury the youthful Ducks (2-3) and advance to the Western Conference Finals. Vegas notched a 3-2 overtime win in Tuesday's Game 5. Tonight's contest is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.
I'll ride with the Golden Knights in a pick’em spot on the road. For starters, I believe they're the more experienced and well-rounded team. Vegas has been very sharp defensively, ranking third in team GAA (2.54) during the playoffs. Their penalty-killing unit is running at 87.88% during the postseason, an improvement over their seventh-best mark of 81.37% during the regular season.
The biggest issue that I have with Anaheim is their lack of stability in net. The Ducks, dating back to the regular season, are on an 8-10-3 run, where they're allowing 3.7 goals per game. That's enough of a sample size to signal an underlying issue.
Add in that the penalty-killing group is at just 70.37% this postseason, and you can see why this team is untrustworthy on the back end. I'll take the Knights to outpace the Ducks in Game 6.
Bet: Golden Knights Moneyline (-110)
