NHL Playoffs Same-Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Sunday (4/30)

We’ve got a pair of Game 7’s involving two series that I don’t think many people expected to go the distance.

The Boston Bruins, the winningest regular season team in NHL history, will look to fend off the pesky Florida Panthers at TD Garden. And later, the defending champion Colorado Avalanche will look to rally out of a 3-2 deficit against the upstart Seattle Kraken.

Here are breakdowns and same-game parlay picks for these two pivotal games.

Best NHL Playoffs Same Game Parlay

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Florida Panthers (+195) at Boston Bruins (-240), Total 6

Leg 1: Florida +1.5
Leg 2: Under 6.5 goals
Leg 3: Brad Marchand anytime goal scorer
Odds: +1000

The Panthers forced a Game 7 in a wild, up-and-down game on home ice that will be defined by a controversial (albeit correct) hand pass review that negated a key Bruins goal. And while the final score was a bit misleading, the Panthers did control play at 5-on-5. Florida held a slight advantage in possession and posted 25 scoring chances to Boston’s 16. More impressive, Florida tripled Boston in high-danger chances by a 15-4 margin.

The Panthers have done a tremendous job of flustering a Boston team that looked unbeatable at times in the regular season. If they managed to advance to the conference semifinals, they’d be wholly deserving.

Meanwhile, the pressure is all on Boston tonight. After a historic regular season, a first-round exit would be a disastrous outcome for the President’s Trophy winners. More concerning is that Boston has a potential controversy between the pipes. Linus Ullmark will likely win the Vezina Trophy, but he was a disaster in Game 6, letting in six goals on 33 shots. And while Boston didn’t play great in front of him, MoneyPuck.com suggests Ullmark should’ve kept a couple of those goals out of the net. Anyone who watched Game 6 would probably agree with that assessment.

As of Sunday morning, it’s uncertain who will be in net for Boston. The Bruins have a capable backup in Jeremy Swayman, who finished eighth in the regular season in goals saved above expected. Coach Jim Montgomery has a brutal choice in a do-or-die game.

It’s really hard to justify taking a -240 favorite in a Game 7. As dominant as Boston has been in the regular season, they have not looked like the same team in this series and I think the price misrepresents how they’ve performed. Do I think Boston will win tonight? Yes, but I’m not interested in paying this type of price. So instead, I’ll back the Panthers to keep this game tight and pray we don’t get beat by an empty-netter at the end. I also like this game to go under, as I expect a much tighter affair. Finally, I’ll roll with Brad Marchand to light the lamp, as he tends to rise to the occasion in these types of situations.

Seattle Kraken (+180) at Colorado Avalanche (-210), Total 6

Leg 1: Kraken +180
Leg 2: Over 5.5 goals
Leg 3: Oliver Bjorkstrand anytime goal scorer
Odds: +900

The Avalanche staved off elimination on the road in a 4-1 victory on the road. Now, the defending champs will look to keep the title defense alive at home.

It’s no surprise this series went to seven games, as the Kraken have given the Avs everything they can handle. This series has been incredibly even at 5-on-5 play. Just take a look at these stats:

Corsi For % at 5-on-5: Avalanche 50.25, Kraken 49.25
Scoring chances: Colorado 132-126
Expected goals: Seattle 13.58-12.88

The biggest difference in the series has come in the high-danger chances department, where Seattle has generated 67 opportunities to Colorado’s 54.

At this price, it’s Kraken or nothing for me as far as the side. At +180, oddsmakers suggest the Kraken have a 35% chance at winning this game. This price feels about 30 cents too high to me considering how well Seattle has competed with Colorado. And while Alexander Georgiev was better in net for the Avs in the Game 6 win, I still don’t think Colorado has much of an advantage in net on a game-to-game basis.

My favorite play in this game is the over, however. The under has hit in five of six games, but that’s not for a lack of scoring chances. It’s more a lack of converting. Just look at Game 6, where the teams combined to go 0-for-8 on the power play. The two teams both rank in the bottom three in power play percentage during the postseason, with the paltry New York Islanders being the only team performing worse on the man advantage.

Maybe I’m just a dog chasing his tail, as I’ve been wrong on the over before. But the postgame analytics report have projected at least six expected goals in four of the six games in this series. I’ll try the over one last time. Finally, I’ll take Kraken winger Oliver Bjorkstrand to light the lamp tonight, as he’s second on the team in shots but has yet to score in the series.