Jacoby Brissett and the Indianapolis Colts have done everything they can to silence doubters through the first three weeks of the NFL season. After narrowly losing to the Los Angeles Chargers 30-24 in overtime on the road in Week 1, Indianapolis has responded with back-to-back wins at the Tennessee Titans and then at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Now, the Colts welcome the Oakland Raiders to town this Sunday with a legitimate shot at improving to 3-1 on the season. They're a touchdown favorite and will be expected to get the job done, but can they cover?
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Details
- Opening Line: Colts -6.5
- Current Line: Colts -6.5 at PointsBet
- Over/Under: 45
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
- Start Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Last Meeting: Colts 42 at Raiders 28 (10/28/18)
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Overview
Brissett has completed 71.7 percent of his pass attempts while throwing for 646 yards and seven touchdowns with just one interception through three starts. Those are pretty good numbers for a quarterback that was completely written off the moment he took over as the starter in Indianapolis following Andrew Luck's retirement. It has certainly helped that Brissett has such a strong supporting cast on both sides of the football. Running back Marlon Mack is third in the NFL in rushing yards (299) and has brought a good balance to the offense. However, the team could be without a number of key parts this week. Star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and safety Malik Hooker went down in last week's 27-24 win over the Falcons. Hooker is out while Hilton is questionable. Also, Darius Leonard, the team's leading tackler from last season, is in the concussion protocol and is questionable to play.
Meanwhile, even with Indianapolis banged up, the Raiders might not have the weapons to keep up with the Colts. Oakland has been outscored a combined 62-24 since opening the season with a win over the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. While quarterback Derek Carr has done a good job of not turning the football over, he also hasn't been willing to take shots down the field and that has allowed opposing defenses to stack the box. Since 2014, only two quarterbacks have averaged less in yards-per-attempt than Carr from a clean pocket and they are Brock Osweiler and Blaine Gabbert. Even with a better supporting cast, Carr is holding this team back.
Rookie running back Josh Jacobs has reached 95 scrimmage yards in two of his first three games, but both he and the rest of the offense were overwhelmed in Minnesota last week. Jacobs will need another strong performance this week if the Raiders are going to have any shot at keeping up with the Colts as the visiting team.
Trends
- Raiders are 3-11 ATS in last 14 as road underdogs of 3+ points
- Oakland is 0-4 ATS in last 4 games on field turf
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in last 5 games on field turf
- Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in last 6 September games
Bottom Line
With Brissett locked in, running back Marlon Mack performing at a high level, and the Indianapolis defense doing just enough, it's no surprise the Colts are on the verge of improving to 3-1. The biggest question here is whether or not they can win by enough points to cover the spread.
Oakland just feels like a fading commodity. With injuries to left tackle Trent Brown, guard Gabe Jackson, and linebacker Vontaze Burfict, this will be a team that's hard to trust on the road. Look for the Colts to pound the Raiders on the ground and grind out a comfortable win.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.