Introducing the Week 3 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 3 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Panthers vs. Raiders.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 3 Betting Primer>>
Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders (-5)
Sides:
- The Panthers have lost their last 10 road games.
- The Panthers have lost 11 of their last 12 games.
- Carolina didn't cover the spread on the road once in 2023. Regression should be coming under new head coach Dave Canales.
- The 2023 Buccaneers (Canales was the OC) were 8-2 ATS on the road.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
- The Raiders are 9-2-1 ATS over their last 12 games.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
Totals:
- Each of the Panthers’ last five games against AFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Panthers' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Raiders' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line, 12-7 toward the under.
Overall:
Who knew how fun this matchup could be? Andy Dalton will start for the Panthers after the organization benched Bryce Young. I am confident that this anemic offense we have seen through two games will improve in Week 3. The market agrees, and the line has moved two points from LV -7 to LV -5. The Red Rifle has arrived. And although his presence should only improve the offensive production, the defense might play better as well, knowing they don't have to do everything to win.
That being said, the Panthers’ run defense remains a major issue. They rank 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (199.5), picking up where they left off last season.
And the Raiders... well, they have been fun through two games, at least regarding how their offense has operated with Gardner Minshew and new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. Getsy has all but abandoned the run game, opting to move the ball through the air with short-to-intermediate throws. The Raiders rank second in pass rate over expectation this season (5.7%), trailing only the Bengals (9.4%).
Unfortunately, the good times might not keep rolling. Head coach Antonio Pierce has been disappointed by a lack of rushing and a new zone-blocking scheme. The Raiders head coach has pointed more blame on the blocking upfront, but Zamir White just looks like a poor fit in this scheme. They brought in Alexander Mattison for a reason, and he's looked like a much better rusher.
But Pierce is doubling down on his commitment to White.
"I'm gonna keep pumping him up," Pierce said. "Our goal is to get 20+ touches with him [White]. That was the goal this week, didn't happen. That's going to be the goal this week and every week while he's the starting running back and I'm here."
This seems like a square peg/round hole situation. The Raiders offense has been inspiring with high passing volume, but the head coach wants to go back to his run-heavy routes. Against Carolina's atrocious run defense, it's not a terrible strategy. But is giving White 20-plus touches at the expense of Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, etc., truly the best offensive game plan? I am not overly convinced. Seems like the Raiders are going through somewhat of an identity crisis on offense, and that concerns me and their ability to cover the spread.
I'll take the Panthers on the road at +5.5 and take the game total under 40.
I truly think that Young hamstrung the entire Panthers offense and that we will finally see Canales' vision with a competent passer under center.
That being said, functioning and thriving are drastically different things. Note that despite more optimism about the Panthers after Young's benching, the total has moved from 43 to 40.
The Raiders’ defense is still their team's strength, and they have shown it two weeks in, ranking tenth in first downs allowed per play.
All in all, I prefer the bet on the total than the side.
Player Props:
We know the Panthers brought in Diontae Johnson to be the No. 1 WR in this offense. But the chemistry he has with Dalton remains to be seen. Meanwhile, we've seen Dalton connect with Adam Thielen before. In Week 3 of the 2023 season, the duo connected on 11-of-14 passes for 145 yards and one touchdown, per Panthers.com. I'm surprised his lines (43.5) and 3.5 receptions are this high for Week 3.
We nailed the over on Gardner Minshew's completions in Week 2, and many will point to the slightly negative game script as a result. But this offense is centered around the quick passing game. Minshew had 14 completions in the first half alone and hit the over mid-third quarter.
Even against a bad Panthers run defense, I don't think the Raiders lose their identity completely on offense. Minshew has 25-plus completions in two straight games. He leads the NFL in completions, completion rate with the third-lowest aDOT to boot.
Note that I wrote the above analysis BEFORE seeing the quotes from Pierce. So let's pivot OFF the Gardner Minshew OVER 21.5 pass attempts and onto the OVER Zamir White's 14.5 rushing attempts. It's Pierce's goal (if not mission) to get him over this number. Projections agree, with White slated for 16 rushing attempts.
My Picks:
- Zamir White OVER 14.5 rushing attempts
- Under 40
- Panthers +5.5
