Perfect Bracket for Medium Pools: NCAA Tournament (2026)

The bracket is set. The field of 68 is locked in, and March Madness officially has its cast of characters for 2026.

BettingPros will provide ample coverage throughout the week, including creating the perfect bracket for pools of all sizes - small, medium, and large. Whether you’re competing in a public contest with millions at stake, among family and friends, or within your office, I’ve got you covered on filling out your bracket, regardless of the tournament’s scale.

This article focuses on tips tailored for medium tournament pools - those with your whole company, high school or college friends, or a general public pool. Any amount between 50-500 people. The strategy for a medium pool is to get a bit riskier, but don't go too crazy; there are still plenty of ways to differentiate your bracket.

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Perfect Bracket for Medium Pools: NCAA Tournament (2026)

Pick the Right Champion

Picking the right champion is the easiest way to win your bracket. I mentioned this in the smaller pool tips article - over the last 27 seasons, 25 champions have started the tournament with a top-20 offense and a top-40 defense on Selection Sunday, per KenPom. The teams that fit that criteria this year:

Duke (4, 2)
Arizona (5, 3)
Michigan (8, 1)
Florida (9, 6)
Houston (14, 5)
Illinois (2, 28)
Purdue (1, 36)
Vanderbilt (7, 31)

That's it. Your champion is almost guaranteed to come from this list. This is a much bigger group than in years past because more teams are good now, and I actually kept out Louisville and Texas Tech from injuries, but we can tidy it up even more.

Over the last eight years, among the top two teams in efficiency from February 1st to Selection Sunday on Bart Torvik, at least one of those teams made the championship or won it all. Those two teams are Duke and Arizona. Pretty solid options. I don't want to guarantee that both teams will make the championship, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if either did.

For what it’s worth, last year’s top-10 from Feb. 1 to Selection Sunday made up all eight Elite Eight squads; this year, that list is Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa State, Houston, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

Take Early Risks

In 14 of the past 16 tournaments, at least one top-four seed has lost in the first round of the tournament. Last year was one of the rare years it did not happen, so odds are we see a big upset back on the docket this time around. If there is a team you think might lose early, maybe you don't have to pick a big upset in the first round, but have them lose before the second weekend to take a less risky route. My choices this year for such selections are Kansas, Nebraska, and Michigan State.

Furthermore, a double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in 17 straight tournaments and 37 of the last 39. Find a double-digit seed you like or an opponent you don't, and find a team to follow that trend. Some options include South Florida, VCU, and Santa Clara.

Keep Your Final Four Simple

The points come from the meatier part of the bracket. If you can get three of the four right, that should be enough to secure a victory or at least a top finish in your pool. The risks taken earlier in the bracket will allow your bracket to differentiate from the rest of the field and set you up for success in taking down your pool. Last year, we had all ones. As Will Warren pointed out, the gap of 1-10 teams to 26-50 is the biggest we’ve seen since KenPom started tracking in 1998. I’m not sure if we’ll see all number ones again, but I won’t be surprised by three ones and a two.

If you are inexperienced, I have a bracket you can copy and paste into your pool for your liking. It is pretty chalky, but keeps it simple and should give a solid floor for winning your bracket pool.

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.