I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Rams vs. Packers.
NFL Betting Primer: Rams vs. Packers
Green Bay Packers (-3.0) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The 3-point line suggests Matthew Stafford won't be playing on Sunday as he deals with a thumb injury. Because the Packers have done absolutely nothing to deserve to be favorites against any team with what they have put out on the field.
The Packers haven't looked good since Week 1 when they faced the Bears. They are losers of 4 straight (two-by-one-score games) and their only other win came in a miraculous comeback versus the Saints.
The offense has regressed immensely with Jordan Love at the helm. And coaching has played a major part because of how awful the team is in the first halves of games. 32nd in points per game in the first half (4.1). Second half? 1st in points per game. WOOF.
2023 Packers offense
1st half points per game (4.1) – 32nd
2nd half points per game (15.9) – 1st
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 1, 2023
It's a larger issue that Green Bay needs to figure out to alleviate the sluggish starts. Luckily the Rams matchup is favorable for them.
The Rams are allowing the league's 5th-lowest passing TD percentage but an average red zone defense (17th) and the league's 4th highest rushing TD percentage at a whopping 50%. In Week 7 the Steelers' offense went a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone against the Rams. Last week versus Dallas 2-for-3.
LA has also been super inconsistent all year long, as they seemingly can only put together 30 minutes of solid football any given Sunday. They got blown out in the first half versus Dallas.
Their run defense ranks 20th in DVOA and their pass defense ranks 22nd. Again, I feel like a broken record backing the Packers, but against a Stafford-less Rams team (4-5 ATS last season) feels like the right spot for them to get a win at home.
Against offenses not-named the Arizona Cardinals or injury-ravened Seahawks/Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 23 points on defense this season. Only in one game have they allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
Simply put, if a completely overrated and fraudulent Steelers team could come away with a 7-point victory on the road versus the Rams - deservedly so or not - GB should take care of business versus L.A even if it requires another strong second-half effort.
Four of the Packers’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line. Heavily lean toward the under overall in this contest. Even with Cooper Kupp back the last month, the Rams are 3-1 toward the under, with the one "over" coming on the back of Dallas' offense in Week 8. Over the last month, the Rams have averaged just 9.5 points per game in the first half. Their defense - before allowing 33 points in the first half last week - had allowed just 9.3 points per game in the first half.
My Picks:
- Packers -3
- Under 38.5
- 1st half Under 19.5
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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