Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista: UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks (2024)

After almost five weeks of waiting, we have our first UFC card of the year. We ended last year on an incredible run, hitting a monster first-round KO prop for Josh Emmett at +850!!!

Overall, we ended the year up almost 25 units. That’s not too shabby. This card is being criminally overlooked simply because next week features a gigantic PPV event with numerous title fights and upper-echelon fighters.

Let’s see if we can continue our good fortune and start the new year off right. Here are our top UFC Fight Night odds and picks. Below we dive into Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista.

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UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks: Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ricky Simon (-185) vs. Mario Bautista (+154)

Ricky Simon

Dist Acc Off: 44.1%
Dist Att/Min: 7.64
Dist Def: 63%
KD%: 1.7% (2 KDs out of 114 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 33.1%
Control % Def: 1.6%

Mario Bautista

Dist Acc Off: 50%
Dist Att/Min: 13.69
Dist Def: 60%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 126 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 42.3%
Control % Def: 12.3%

Ricky Simon is coming off a main-event loss to Song Yadong. He was thoroughly dominated at a distance and was unable to secure any significant offensive control time. It was a hard fight to watch for as long as it lasted. Simon’s striking is pretty basic and is used mainly to set up his takedowns. His offensive wrestling is elite, but in this matchup, it will be tested by Bautista’s evolving submission game.

Mario Bautista is on a five-fight winning streak that has resulted in three first-round submissions. Bautista fights at a higher pace with more accuracy at a distance and has a consistently active guard when controlled. He is constantly looking to finish the fight. Both fighters are seasoned UFC veterans and have both failed to bust through into the upper echelon of the bantamweight division, but whoever wins here will more than likely get a shot at a top 5 contender.

Bet: Mario Bautista (+154)

Record

ML: 59-51-3 (+9.40 units)
Props: 17-35-1 (+8.10 units)
Parlays: 5-27 (+7.71 units)
Overall: +25.21 units

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data.