Saints vs. Colts: NFL Week 8 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Saints vs. Colts.

NFL Betting Primer: Saints vs. Colts

Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

The unstoppable force versus the immovable object. The Colts have been an OVER machine this season, with their two "unders" coming in Gardner Minshew's first start in a rainy game in Baltimore and in the Titans matchup where Anthony Richardson got knocked out early. Still, both games ended with 39-plus points scored.

All the other five games they have played have gone over the total because of the chaotic nature of Gardner Minshew in an offense that has benefited from big plays that have generated points on both sides (especially last week). In Week 7, the Colts and Browns combined for 11 plays of 20-plus yards. 8 came from Indy's offense. They had 4 the week prior, with an average of 6 the previous two weeks.

Minshew leads all QBs in turnover-worthy plays despite not even being the team's starter to open the year. That has created short fields for the opposition which again resulted in more points across the board.

Still in this matchup, I think I shy more with the immovable object in the Saints defense. They didn't play elite versus Jacksonville, giving up season-highs in yards/points at home. But they've generated turnovers in all their games and have often played things tight. Hence, their 6-1 record toward the under this year - the one over coming last week versus the Jaguars. That despite the Saints entering that game 12-0 toward the under in their previous 12 games and Derek Carr boasting a 9-3 record toward the under. Updated now to 12-1 and 9-4 respectively.

Each of the Saints’ last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Ultimately, neither of these QBs is playing particularly good football, which has me leaning back toward the under as a bet against two bad QBs that have not been efficient whatsoever. Yards are great, but until they translate into consistent points, unders will continue to prevail.

Considering the Colts' two unders have come against two under machines in the Ravens/Titans, I'd say the Saints fit a similar criterion to drag this game down under the 43.5-point total.

As for sides, I don't like either. Would likely settle on the Saints coming off extra rest, against a super chaotic Minshew. A lot of what they did last week is baked into this line when a lot of the reliance on explosive plays is somewhat unsustainable.

And although I hate the Saints’ offense with Derek Carr at the helm, the Colts’ pass defense is a mess. And passing volume alone should at least get them an FG victory. Their back-to-back losses have come in one-score defeats, despite them posting 400-plus yards of offense.

Michael Pittman had 5 targets and caught 2 passes for 83 yards in Week 7. Caught a 75-yarder late in the game. The Saints are allowing the 5th-fewest fantasy pointsts to perimeter WRs this season. It’s a better matchup for Josh Downs in the slot. Pittman has also not posted overly encouraging numbers against man coverage this season. Made the big play last week, but I wouldn't bet on that two weeks in a row. Take the under.

But take the over on Alvin Kamara’s reception prop at 4.5. 19 catches in his last two games. Derek Carr is a check-down KING.

My Picks:

Under 43.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Saints -1 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Michael Pittman Jr. under 56.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)
Alvin Kamara over 4.5 receptions (-115 BetMGM)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.