Introducing the Week 15 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 15 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Saints vs. Commanders.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 15 Betting Primer>>
Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints
Sides:
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 19 games. They are 8-4 ATS and straight up in their last 12 games.
- The Commanders have lost eight of their last 14 home games.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 15 games as favorites.
- The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with losing records.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records.
- The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in five of their last eight games.
- The Commanders have won the first half in 9 of their last 11 games.
- The Commanders have scored first in eight of their last nine games.
- The Saints have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games.
- The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 15 games.
- The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
- The Saints have scored first in each of their last six games.
- The Saints have lost eight of their last 11 games.
- The Saints are 2-7 ATS as road favorites.
- The Saints are 4-7 ATS as home underdogs (9-15 on the money line as underdogs)
- As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-8 straight up. Woof.
- In each of the Saints’ last seven games against NFC opponents, their opponents have scored last.
Totals:
- Eight of the Commanders’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Sixteen of the Commanders’ last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, nine of the Commanders' last 10 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 6-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 16-4 toward the OVER.
- The Saints have an 18-point implied team total (second lowest on the slate)
- The Commanders are 5-3 O/U at home, averaging over 47 points per game.
- Each of the Commanders' last seven games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Saints' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Washington is 29th in red zone defense, and the Saints rank eighth.
- The Saints are 4-3 toward the over at home (46.6 points per game).
Overall:
The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with losing records. The Commanders have also won seven of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.
As a team that drastically exceeded offseason expectations, they have beaten up bad teams while falling short against the superior teams. This suggests that Commanders will likely be one and done in the playoffs. But we should expect a stream rolling of sorts against the Saints led by Spencer Rattler/Jake Haener.
Let's not forget that Washington destroyed the Titans before their Week 14 bye week. The Titans boast a top-run defense and were no match for Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson Jr.
I also think the bye week is really going to benefit the Commanders. We know that Daniels and Robinson were battling through injuries so they should be closer to 100% after a week off.
Also, the Commanders should get back CB Marshon Lattimore in a #revengegame against his former team. He hasn't played for the Commanders since being dealt via trade.
Either way, I am very pessimistic about the Saints offense. They barely managed to beat the Giants last week. They were outgained and got bailed out by two penalties that took 10 points off the board for Big Blue.
And the Saints at home as underdogs are a terrible bet to make. The Saints are 4-7 ATS as home underdogs. As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-8 straight up. Woof.
I expect the Commanders’ rushing attack to completely overwhelm New Orleans' defense. Before they faced the Giants, they had allowed an average of 400-plus yards in the last three games.
This matchup features the third-most efficient rushing attack against the league's 29th-ranked rushing defense.
Seven points isn't enough in what could be somewhat of a homecoming game for Daniels, who played his college ball at LSU.
Props
Noah Brown has already been ruled out of Week 14's game. In Week 13, Dyami Brown added 35 yards on four catches (8.8 YPR), with a long of 13 yards. He played the second-most WR snaps and tied for the second-most routes run.
As the Commanders' No. 2 WR, this could move targets to others in the offense, such as the RBs.
Brian Robinson Jr. has over 5.5 receiving yards in four straight games (over 6.5 in three of the last four games) and in both games this season without Austin Ekeler in the lineup. Ekeler is on IR. The projections have Robinson FLYING over this number.
Jeremy McNichols also needs to be viewed d as the No. 2 rusher. Note that Chris Rodriguez didn't see his first carry until the end of the third quarter in Week 13, with the Commanders winning 35-13.
Alvin Kamara led the Saints backfield with 17 carries in Week 14 but managed only 44 yards (2.6 YPC), with his longest run going for 16 yards. Kendre Miller added 32 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries (3.2 YPC), while Jamaal Williams handled three attempts for five yards.
Miller handled a red-zone carry for his touchdown but had limited usage in the passing game. Kamara went scoreless on his lone red-zone attempt. He did prove valuable as a receiving back, catching all 5 of his targets for 35 yards.
Kamara's snaps stayed high at 72%, with Miller seeing just 26%. However, the coaches definitely must have been encouraged by Miller's performance after his long layoff.
That's why I love the under on Kamara's 68.5 rushing yards prop. Since Week 4, he has hit this number twice. He is also under this number in three of his four games played with Miller in the lineup. The under is also 3-0 without Carr under center for the Saints.
My Picks
- Commanders -7.5
- Alvin Kamara UNDER 68.5 rushing yards
- Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 6.5 receiving yards
- Jeremy McNichols anytime TD (+240)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling UNDER 39.5 receiving yards
