Saints vs. Falcons: NFL Week 12 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Saints vs. Falcons.

NFL Betting Primer: Saints vs. Falcons

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-1)

Yet again we have another team with stark home/road splits. The Atlanta Falcons - who will be led by Desmond Ridder coming out of their bye week - play host to their rival NFC South Saints. New Orleans are fringe road favorites. And I already bet the Falcons +1 early in the week.

Here's why.

Ridder has only lost one game at home in his professional and college career, so I'll continue to back the Falcons when they are at home in the dome. They play better in Atlanta. That's been evident this year, with the Dirty Birds 3-1 (under Ridder) averaging 22.8 points per game in Atlanta versus their 1-4 record on the road, where they have averaged 15 points per game.

I also like backing the positive regression for the Falcons in one-score games. Last year, the Falcons lost 8 of their 10 one-possession games.

This year? They started at 3-1 in one-possession games. They have dropped three games in a row by scores of 5, 3 and 2, bringing their one-possession game record to 3-4. I don't think this streak keeps up. The Falcons are on a six-game streak of failing to cover the spread in games they are favored in. Thank the lord they are not favorites in this spot. Overall, the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.

The negative streak must end against an equally overrated Saints squad.

The only NFC teams that are worse ATS than the Saints (2-7-1): The Falcons (2-8) and Panthers. Both the Falcons and Saints are equally overrated. Hence I settle with the underdog at home.

I also love Ridder in this spot versus a Saints defense that ranks 4th in most rushing yards allowed to QBs. They struggled to continue mobile QBs and that will give the Falcons a big boost with Ridder under center. The second-year QB has had 10-plus rushing yards in his last five games, going over 18 in three separate contests.

Bet the over on his rushing yards and attempts this week.

Think we see the Falcons overall have an edge against the Saints defense, who will be without star CB, Marshon Lattimore.

Falcons DC, Ryan Nielsen, is also super familiar with the Saints’ entire roster, having spent his coaching tenure with the Saints from 2017-2022.

As for the total...Atlanta is 7-3 toward the under this season. These 2 teams are a combined 7-13 toward the under this season. These teams have averaged 40.5 points this season.

With the O/U set at 42.5 points, think the under is the easy play here.

With Ridder at QB, I like the over on Drake London's receiving yards. Ridder targeted London 5 times (including penalties and 2-point attempts) for a 63% Target share (8 total pass attempts) in his limited playing time in Week 10.

Before his benching, London was on a streak of 4 straight games with 54-plus yards. He is also 3-0 toward the over on his yardage props in his last three home games.

My Picks:

Falcons +1/ML
Under 42.5

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.